The Baltimore Ravens are set to host the Kansas City Chiefs this Sunday with a chance to earn a Super Bowl trip on the line. This is the Ravens’ first AFC championship appearance in over a decade, while the Chiefs are back in the conference title game for the sixth straight year.
The Ravens are a four-point favorite at home having won their divisional round matchup by 24 points. The Chiefs enter this matchup having defeated the Miami Dolphins in Round 1 and Buffalo Bills on the road last week.
Here are some player prop bets to eye AFC championship showdown.
All odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Lamar Jackson longest rush over 17.5 yards (-110)
Jackson eviscerated a solid Texans’ run defense last week, gaining 100 rushing yards on just 11 carries with two touchdowns on the ground. He broke off a chunk gain of 23 yards on one carry and had a few other longer runs as well.
The Chiefs have a middle-of-the-pack run defense. They allowed just under 2,000 total rushing yards on the season and opponents averaged 4.5 yards per carry against them. The over/under mark for Jackson’s longest rush in this game is 17.5. It’s a high mark, but one that he’s exceeded in four straight games.
In addition, Jackson has gone over this total in three of four career games against Kansas City, with longest rushes of 21, 30, and 21 yards again in each of those contests. His big-play rushing ability has been persistent during this home stretch of the season, so taking the over here even at minus value is a worthwhile bet.
Odell Beckham Jr. over 20.5 rush + receiving yards (-115)
Beckham’s usage in the Ravens’ offense has wavered a bit over the past several games, as he’s seen no more than three targets in four straight contests. He’s been targeted once in back-to-back games and had a quiet playoff outing last week with one catch for 12 yards.
As such, Beckham’s over/under yardage projection has dipped down to 20.5, which is much lower than the mid-to-upper 30s it was in consistently earlier in the season. This game profiles as the type of high-leverage moment where Beckham could shine, or at least make one or two crucial plays.
Jackson has been distributing the ball evenly to different pass-catchers and Mark Andrews is returning to the lineup, which may dim the prospect of a high-volume game for Beckham. However, given the stakes and matchup at-hand, one can expect Jackson to look Beckham’s way more than just once or twice.
Taking the over on his 20.5 receiving yards projection carries -125 value. However, that value dips to -115 if you instead take the over on his receiving and rushing combined yardage prop, which is still 20.5.
Mark Andrews anytime touchdown scorer (+215)
Andrews will be making his highly-anticipated return to the field against the Chiefs, marking his first on-field action since November 16. There’s been some questions as to what Andrews’ workload will look like after suffering a significant ankle injury and how many snaps the Ravens will give him in this game.
The Ravens’ offense has been humming in Andrews’ absence, in-part due to the steady performance of tight end Isaiah Likely — whose role has expanded. Ultimately, it’s unlikely the Ravens lean on Andrews in the same way of old in this particular game given these factors.
However, the All-Pro tight end will inevitably still factor into the gameplan, perhaps more in specific situations such as on third downs and in the red zone. Andrews has long been Jackson’s go-to target for each of these scenarios. So, it’d make sense for the Ravens to prioritize Andrews in these spots as opposed to all early-down plays as well.
Betting on Andrews to find the end zone has great value at +215 and is too enticing to pass up. The home crowd will be raucous for No. 89 in his return and him scoring a touchdown seems almost storybook, but also quite feasible.
Isiah Pacheco over 13.5 rushing attempts (-145)
Pacheco has emerged for the Chiefs late in the season and played a starring role in both of their playoff games. The former seventh-round pick has rushed for 89+ yards in five of the past seven games and scored a touchdown in all but two of these games as well.
The Chiefs have been committed to establishing the run and giving Pacheco a consistent workload. Dating back to November 5, Pacheco has carried the ball 15 or more times in all but one game. While he’s listed as questionable for this game with a toe injury, signs point to Pacheco suiting up.
Barring an injury flare-up or unforeseen change in the Chiefs’ gameplan, Pacheco should again be featured for this matchup. The Ravens shut down the Texans’ rushing attack last weekend but their run defense has been spotty at times throughout the season. They’ll likely be content ceding some production on the ground in an effort to prevent Patrick Mahomes from doing significant damage through the air.
You could make an argument for betting on Pacheco’s over rushing yards total (63.5) or anytime touchdown scorer at +125. However, while the value on the over for his rushing attempts projection of 13.5 has the worst value (-145), it also seems like surest bet.
Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See DraftKings Sportsbook for details.