The Baltimore Ravens (2-1) are traveling to take on the Cleveland Browns (2-1) in Week 4 for a big divisional showdown. The Browns are narrow 1.5-point home favorites over the Ravens (+102) after being favored by 2.5 points earlier in the week.
Cleveland’s defense ranks No. 1 in the league in most major statistical categories through the first three games of the season. The Ravens’ new-look offense has been up-and-down and will face a tough task against the Browns in this game. Baltimore is looking to improve to 2-0 in the division and bounce back after an upset defeat against the Colts last Sunday.
Here are some of the top player prop bets to eye in this bout for first place in the AFC North.
All odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Gus Edwards over 38.5 rushing yards (-115)
Edwards hovered right around his over/under rushing yards total last week with 51 yards on 11 carries. He exited the game early after suffering a concussion but returned to practice this week and is set to resume play. The “Gus Bus” hype as the team’s lead running back has died down and Justice Hill may return to the lineup in this game as well.
However, this a good spot to take the over on Edwards’ suppressed yardage projection of 38.5, despite less-than-amazing value at -115. Edwards doesn’t need a ton of carries to be productive thanks to his consistent efficiency and has 113 rushing yards combined over the past two games. The Ravens, who are undermanned with pass-catchers, will likely lean into the ground game even more against a high-level Browns’ secondary.
Edwards has had success against the Browns in his career, too. In seven career matchups versus Cleveland, Edwards has gone over 38.5 rushing yards in five games and has averaged 51 yards on the ground. In the past three matchups, he rushed for 49, 55, and 66 yards, respectively.
Devin Duvernay over 18.5 rushing + receiving yards (-110)
Starting wideouts Odell Beckham Jr. and Rashod Bateman will not be in the lineup for this matchup. Therefore, veterans Nelson Agholor and Devin Duvernay will play elevated roles alongside rookie Zay Flowers at wide receiver. Flowers
Duvernay is still searching for his first catch of the season and has only seen four passes, while Flowers and Agholor have been two of Lamar Jackson’s favorite targets. So, there’s some inherent risk in betting the over on 18.5 combined scrimmage yards here.
However, when asked to play a bigger role last season, Duvernay exceeded this total in 10 games. The Ravens could very well manufacture a few touches for him on screen passes and end-around sweeps, which is usually his primary offensive role, to provide an offensive spark and keep the Browns’ defense guessing.
Duvernay had three games in 2023 with 16+ rushing yards and 10 with over 18.5 receiving yards alone. He’s still the fourth option in the pecking order even with Beckham and Bateman out, but there’s enough evidence here to lean into betting the over with -110 value.
Jadeveon Clowney over 0.25 sacks (+120)
Clowney will be facing his former team of the past two seasons in this matchup. While this may be a bit of a cliche “revenge game” bet, there’s good reason to take the over on his over/under sack total of 0.25 — which has plus value at +120.
The 10-year veteran has been productive through three games this season as a pass-rusher with 1.5 sacks. While that’s not an awfully high total, he’s been charted with four blitzes, six pressures, and five quarterback hits — evidence that of his disruption getting after the quarterback.
Clowney should again see a higher snap count and more blitzing opportunities in this game with fellow edge rushers Odafe Oweh and David Ojabo out of the lineup. He wouldn’t even need a full sack to hit the over on this prop, as only a half-sack would suffice. Clowney had a half-sack against the Colts last week.
Jerome Ford under 52.5 rushing yards (-115)
In the wake of Nick Chubb’s season-ending injury, Ford has assumed the starting running back role for the Browns. Aside from a 106-yard rushing performance against the Steelers in Week 2, Ford has done little damage on the ground. 69 of these 106 yards came on one single rush, too.
He rushed for 36 yards on 15 carries in the season opener and 18 yards on 10 carries against the Titans last week. Therefore, Ford has gone well under 52.5 yards rushing in two of three games, which is the over/under line for this game.
The Ravens were gashed for a few long runs against the Colts last week and allowed Zack Moss to gain 122 yards on 30 attempts. Ford is very unlikely to see that same type of volume, though. In Week 3, fellow Browns’ running backs Kareem Hunt and Pierre Strong Jr. combined for 10 carries, which matched Ford’s number of attempts, and four other players saw attempts as well.
Baltimore’s usually-stingy run defense will likely concentrate on a bounce-back performance and force either a banged-up Deshaun Watson or rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson beat them through the air.
Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See DraftKings Sportsbook for details.