The Baltimore Ravens are 3.5-point favorites on the road this week, as they’re set to do battle with the AFC South-leading Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars have lost two games in a row but are still vying for the AFC’s No. 1 seed, which the Ravens are currently in sole possession of at 10-3.
Here are some of the top player prop bets to eye in this key conference bout.
All odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Isaiah Likely over 3.5 receptions (+110)
Since taking over as the Ravens’ starting tight end in-place of the injured Mark Andrews, Likely has been a fixture in the team’s passing attack. Over the past two games, Lamar Jackson has thrown 13 combined passes Likely’s way. He’s caught nine of them for 123 yards and a touchdown, highlighted by a 66-yard score against the Los Angeles Rams last week.
He’s done this while playing 50+ snaps in each game. With four catches in Week 12 and five catches in Week 14, Likely has quickly begun to build momentum. While Jackson has distributed the ball around consistently this season, Likely seems to be a trusted target for him and he’s a clear part of the offensive gameplan.
Four catches is not a low bar to reach, but Likely has done it in back-to-back games. Taking the over on this 3.5 over/under mark brings plus value, which makes it an enticing bet to place. It’s worthwhile to think Likely can keep his production rolling for a third straight week.
Odell Beckham Jr. over 38.5 receiving yards (-110)
Speaking of building momentum, that’s exactly what Beckham has done dating back to several weeks ago. Beckham has 40+ receiving yards in four of the past five games with all three of his touchdowns on the season during this span. He’s seen five or more targets in three straight weeks and received a season-high 10 targets last week.
Beckham is a clear fixture in the Ravens’ passing game now and a safety valve for Jackson, particularly on third down and in the red zone. However, it’s been his big-play ability downfield that’s been especially prolific. Beckham has receptions of 40 or more yards in three of four games since Week 10.
His over/under yardage projection continues to creep up week after week as a result of this trend. In Week 15, the number is 38.5 — which he’s gone over on in all but one game since the beginning of November. Taking his anytime touchdown prop or over on 3.5 receptions, both at plus value, are also worth considering.
Keaton Mitchell longest rush over 14.5 yards (-125)
Mitchell continues to make the most of his touches every week. The undrafted rookie has yet to see double-digit carries in a game but is averaging 8.5 yards per carry since emerging as an offensive factor in Week 9. His big-play ability out of the backfield has been touted often and for good reason.
In five straight games, Mitchell has recorded a single run of 21 or more yards, including two long rushes of 60 and 39 yards back in Week 9 and Week 10. Despite this clear trend, his longest rush projection continues to hover around the 14.5 mark, which is where the line is set again for Week 15.
A downward performance at some point is certainly possible, but the over on this prop has a 100% success rate in five consecutive weeks. Although the value at -125 is not ideal, the chances of Mitchell recording a run of at least 15 yards in this game are high enough to bet on.
Trevor Lawrence longest completion under 34.5 yards (-110)
Lawrence is a plenty-capable deep-ball thrower at the quarterback position. However, the over/under projection of 34.5 for his longest completion is high, and he’s gone under in each of the past two games. Lawrence’s longest throw completed in Week 13 was 26 yards and last week was 23 yards.
There are a number of factors working against the favor of this over hitting against the Ravens. For starters, it is not a great on-paper matchup. The Ravens’ pass defense is allowing the lowest yards per attempt (5.6) in the league and has racked up the most sacks of any team. Even though they ceded some big plays to Matthew Stafford and company against the Los Angeles Rams last week, Stafford’s longest completion was 34 yards.
Lawrence is just over a week removed from suffering a high ankle sprain and will still be less than 100% for this matchup. The Jaguars’ offensive gameplan could be to get the ball out quickly to neutralize the Ravens’ pass rush, especially considering also they have injuries on the offensive line.
In total, Lawrence has gone under this 34.5 number in eight of 13 games for the season. It also doesn’t help that one of his favorite targets, wide receiver Christian Kirk, is not available. Kirk has caught a long pass of 35+ yards from Lawrence in four games.
Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See DraftKings Sportsbook for details.