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The 2021 regular season kicks off in less than a week. This leaves plenty of time to lock in some futures bets for the upcoming season. For the Ravens, the gambling scene could be especially entertaining and interesting this year.
Below are some Ravens-related props that could be worthwhile to keep and eye on.
Lamar Jackson OVER 25.5 passing touchdowns (-112)
In 2019, Lamar Jackson led the NFL in passing touchdowns with 36. That number dropped to 26 last season despite Jackson missing one game. While the floor for Jackson’s passing touchdowns seems to be established, oddsmakers seem to think he could toss even less scores in 2021 than he did in 2020.
A projected total of 25.5 seems too low and therefore makes for a great play on the over, despite not getting tremendous value with -112 odds. The added 17th game on the schedule only adds to the likelihood Jackson exceeds this total.
Lamar Jackson OVER 900.5 rushing yards (-112)
Another Jackson prop given -112 odds is the over on his total rushing yards, which sits at 900.5. Jackson broke the NFL single-season record for most rushing yards by a quarterback in 2019. He then rushed for 1,005 yards last year, becoming the first quarterback in NFL history to rush for 1,000+ yards in back-to-back seasons.
Vegas oddsmakers are projecting another slight decline in rushing yards for Jackson in 2021, setting his over/under at 900.5. The odds are the same both ways, but the over is the better play. An extra game on the schedule, the loss of starting running back J.K. Dobbins for the season and Jackson’s efficiency (6.0 YPC career average) are reasons for optimism.
Lamar Jackson OVER 32.5 passing + rushing touchdowns (-126)
If Jackson hits the over on 25.5 passing touchdowns, there’s a great chance he’d hit the over on his combined passing + rushing touchdown projection of 32.5. There’s not great value at -126 but the likelihood is strong enough to where the risk is worthwhile.
Jackson has 19 career rushing touchdowns and seven in back-to-back seasons. The floor for his passing and rushing scoring prowess appears to have been established. Unless he misses multiple games in 2021, it’s difficult to envision him taking a step back in the touchdown department.
Marquise Brown OVER 800.5 receiving yards (-112)
The Ravens’ added multiple pass-catchers this offseason who project to contribute this season. However, Marquise Brown is still the team’s No. 1 wide receiver. He saw a team-high 100 targets last season and caught 58 passes for 769 receiving yards. In 2019, he caught 46 passes for 584 receiving yards in two less games.
Oddsmakers are giving “Hollywood” an over/under receiving yards total of 800.5 and the odds are -112 in both directions. So long as he can stay healthy, another step forward in Year 3 should be in the cards for Marquise. He’d only need just over 30 more receiving yards than he had in 2020 to hit the over, which is entirely possible and frankly likely.
Mark Andrews OVER 7.5 receiving touchdowns (-126)
The past two seasons have seen Mark Andrews establish himself as a top-tier receiving threat at the tight end position. He’s been especially potent as a scoring threat, catching 10 touchdowns in 2020 and seven more last season in one less game.
The over/under for his touchdown receptions in 2021 is set at 7.5. Unfortunately, the over doesn’t offer much value with -126 odds — but it’s easily the right play. Andrews only needs to catch one more touchdown than he did last year. In a 16-game season, he’d be a good bet to accomplish this. In a 17-game season, it’s even more likely.
When the Ravens get into the red zone and look to pass, Andrews is Jackson’s go-to target.
Gus Edwards most regular season rushing yards +3200
This is definitely the most juicy prop listed so far. Gus Edwards is taking over the No. 1 spot in the backfield after J.K. Dobbins suffered a torn ACL. It’s crazy to think a career second-stringer who’s never rushed for more than 723 yards could lead the NFL in rushing, sure.
It could be worthwhile to take a flier on Edwards doing just that in 2021, though. With odds of +3200, this prop offers tremendous value. Edwards has been remarkably consistent in his three-year career, averaging over 5.0 yards per carry in three straight seasons. He’s never been a workhorse back but could see close to upwards of 200 carries this year.
A lot has to break right for Edwards to win the rushing title. Injuries or down years to some of the top-tier running backs in the NFL along with Edwards seeing a tremendous workload and staying healthy would be paramount.
The odds suggest it’s a longshot scenario but anything can happen.
Ravens Alt Win Total over 11.5 wins +120 (Alt win total)
The over/under win total for the Ravens this season is set at 11. The under is -120 and the over is +100. If you’re confident in the over on this number, the alternate line of 11.5 — where the over is valued at +120 — could make more sense.
Baltimore has one of the hardest strength of schedules in the NFL this season. However, they haven’t won less than 10 games since 2017 and won 11 games last year despite playing a first-place schedule. After finishing No. 2 in the AFC North last season, they won’t have to play every 2020 division winner this year. Also, the added 17th game affords them an opportunity to pick up another victory.
Winning 12 games won’t be a cakewalk in a tough division and matchups against teams like the Chiefs, Rams, and Packers on the schedule. Definitely in the cards, though, and the alternative line offers more value than the straight-up over/under.
Ravens, Bills, Titans, Chargers each over 9.5 regular season wins +650
This four-team parlay of AFC teams is enticing. The odds of the Ravens, Bills, Titans and Chargers each winning at least 10 games in 2021 is +650. A lot has to go right for this happen, obviously, but there’s good value present.
The Ravens and Bills feel like locks to hit over 9.5 wins, barring any unforeseen injuries that derail their seasons. Some people are down on the Titans this year but they’ve had a winning record every season since 2016. They finished 9-7 in four straight seasons before winning 11 games in 2020. The AFC South could be one of the weaker divisions in the NFL in 2021.
Los Angeles might be the biggest X-factor in this equation. They finished 7-9 last season but many are optimistic they’ll be a playoff contender this year. The Chargers lost a handful of one-possession games in 2020, so their could be some positive regression under new Head Coach Brandon Staley and rising star quarterback Justin Herbert.
A minimum 10-7 record for all four of these teams is feasible and the odds of +650 make it an interesting value play.
*Note: all odds listed come from FanDuel or DraftKings.
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