It’s smart not to read too much into what oddsmakers have to say in the days and weeks following the NFL draft. The odds and lines for each of the rookie of the year awards will fluctuated and change as we progress further towards the start of the 2020-21 season.
However, it’s interesting to examine what the early betting scene looks like, especially when there’s Ravens-based implications involved.
Initial odds for the Offensive/Defensive Rookie of the Year awards are slightly different depending on where you look, but you’ll find Patrick Queen and J.K. Dobbins’ names on every list no matter what.
The following odds come from FanDuel:
Offensive Rookie of the Year —
- Joe Burrow (+250)
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire (+800)
- Tua Tagovailoa (+800)
- D’Andre Swift (+900)
- Jonathan Taylor (+950)
- Jerry Jeudy (+1300)
- CeeDee Lamb (+1500)
- J.K. Dobbins (+1600)
- Henry Ruggs III (+1800)
- Cam Akers & Justin Herbert (+2000)
It’s no surprise to see Joe Burrow as the top name on this list. The No. 1 overall pick will enter the season as the Bengals starting quarterback and is surrounded by a strong group of playmakers in A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, Joe Mixon and Tee Higgins.
At +250, Burrow is by far the safest bet of the bunch. However, if he wins the starting quarterback job in Miami and can stay healthy, Tua Tagovailoa is an enticing option with odds of +800. The running backs and receivers of the group figure to produce at a solid rate but are risky betting choices at best.
With the eight-best odds, J.K. Dobbins profiles as a potential sleeper for the award. Based on pure talent and ability alone, he’d rank much higher but a murky running back situation in Baltimore figures to hold him back.
At best, Dobbins will begin the season as the No. 2 halfback behind Mark Ingram. Even this, though, would require him to jump both Gus Edwards and Justice Hill on the depth chart, who figure to play offensive snaps regardless of the pecking order anyways.
In the event of an injury to Ingram or an unforeseen change in roles during the season, though, Dobbins could emerge as a top-tier candidate.
Defensive Rookie of the Year —
- Chase Young (+350)
- Isaiah Simmons (+850)
- A.J. Epenesa (+1300)
- Patrick Queen (+1700)
- Jeff Okudah & Kenneth Murray (+2100)
- Grant Delpit (+2300)
- Xavier McKinney (+2300)
- Akeem Davis-Gaithers (+2500)
- Derrick Brown (+2500)
- Troy Dye (+2500)
Compared to ORTOY, forecasting the best defensive rookies is far easier. Chase Young is clearly the odds-on favorite for the award and will be for the foreseeable future. Slotting in behind him is Isaiah Simmons, who - with odds of +850 - is a strong No. 2 option.
Simmons could end up with the best statistical production of any defensive rookie given his projected every-down role and versatile skill set. It’s a bit surprising to see A.J. Epenesa slot in at third ahead of earlier draft picks like Patrick Queen, Jeff Okudah and Kenneth Murray.
It’s not unreasonable to think Queen could vault himself into consideration alongside Young and Simmons during the season, although it’d be risky to bet on such. Queen will be a Day 1 starter and likely step into a three-down role, but the amount of talent around him on the Ravens defense may prevent him from posting gaudy numbers.
Further down the list, there are some sneaky-enticing options in Xavier McKinney at +2300 and Derrick Brown, the No. 7 overall pick in the draft, at +2500.
What are your thoughts on the early odds for rookie of the year? Do you think either Patrick Queen or J.K. Dobbins should be placed higher?
Share your thoughts below and join in on the conversation!