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Ravens News 11/17: Severe Regression and more

Baltimore Ravens v New England Patriots Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images

The 2020 Ravens Bear Little Resemblance to 2019’s Offensive Juggernaut - Riley McAtee

Jackson’s regression has been sharp. Entering Sunday, his passing yards per game dropped from 208.5 in 2019 to 189.1. His rushing yards had declined from 80.4 yards per game to 58.6. And all of his efficiency numbers are down—Jackson is on pace to throw many fewer touchdowns, more interceptions, and take more sacks. He ranked 19th among quarterbacks in Pro Football Focus’s offensive grades after notching the no. 3 mark a year ago.

We all knew regression was coming for the Ravens this season—but no one thought it would be this severe. The worst part, though, is that there is not one obvious problem for the team to fix. Typically, when an elite offense craters from one year to the next, it’s because of injuries, roster turnover, a coach leaving, a dramatic decline in offensive line play, or some other obvious culprit. But this Ravens team has no such excuse—this offense is just bland and ineffective.

Baltimore retained offensive coordinator Greg Roman this offseason, despite Roman being a hot name in head-coaching rumors after his work with the offense last season, especially with Jackson. Roman has an immaculate record coordinating run-heavy offenses with mobile QBs, having previously coached Colin Kaepernick in San Francisco and Tyrod Taylor in Buffalo. But if current trends hold, this will be one of the most lackluster units he’s coached.

Baltimore Ravens snap count analysis: Defense takes on new look against run-heavy Patriots - Aaron Kasinitz

Wide receiver numbers of note

Early this year, wide receiver Miles Boykin was on the field for 80% of the Ravens’ offensive snaps in a game, while rookie Devin Duvernay saw only a handful of plays each week. Over the past several weeks, however, Boykins’ playing time underwent a steady decline and Duvernay’s shot up.

Sunday extended the trend. Boykin played a season-low 19 snaps and Duvernay was on the field for more than 50% of the offense’s snaps for the first time. He hauled in three receptions for a career-high 45 yards.

Meanwhile, second-year receiver Marquise Brown maintained a massive role as his production continued to stall. Brown’s played at least 86% of the offensive snaps in each of the past three games and has a combined six catches for 55 yards over that span.

What the Patriots Said After Beating Ravens - Ryan Mink

DB Adrian Phillips

(on the game plan against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens)

“Yeah it was mainly just keep the ball out of his hands. If he did keep the ball, get him down as quickly as possible. We knew they were an offense that loves to run the ball and they love to get to the edge of the defense. That was pretty much our whole game plan, do not let them get to the edge. They ended up getting to the edge a couple of times. Mainly just keep those guys contained and make them play behind the sticks and that is what we did. We did that with a variety of different looks and it ended up working out well for us because they could not pick up on it.”

Judgements X: Cards, Dolphins proof that everything is possible in 2020 NFL - Clark Judge

Baltimore may be in trouble. The Ravens were supposed to bury New England. They didn’t. Instead, they dropped their first road game in 11 starts. OK, they’re still 6-3. True. But their run defense just got gashed by Damien Harris and a pass-challenged offense. So what happens when they meet Tennessee and Derrick Henry next week? And unbeaten Pittsburgh after that? It’s not inconceivable to imagine the Ravens at 6-5 by Thanksgiving night. And with nine AFC clubs at six wins today, they could be fighting for their playoff lives. The good news is their schedule gets soft afterward, with only one of their last five opponents above .500 (Cleveland). But the bad news is multifold. They have injuries galore. They have issues on both sides of the ball. Their quarterback is 0-6 in games where he trails by 10 or more points (including the playoffs). They’re three games behind the Steelers in the AFC North. And they’re tied with Cleveland ... Cleveland ... with almost no hope of a third straight division title.

NFL Week 11 early odds: Packers open as underdog to AFC team; Rams put unique unbeaten streak on the line - John Breech

Titans (6-3) at Ravens (6-3)

Opening line: Ravens -7

If there’s one spot where you might want to bet against the Ravens, it’s when they’re playing at home. Since Lamar Jackson took over as the starter, the Ravens are just 6-11 ATS in home games. They’re also 2-5 ATS in the past seven games where they were favored by seven or more points. On the Titans’ end, they’re a respectable 4-4 straight-up in the past eight games where they’ve been an underdog. On the other hand, they’re 0-3 in their past three road games and 4-8 ATS In their past 12. The last time these two teams met came in the 2019 playoffs when the Titans covered as a 10-point underdog in an upset win.