The Ravens travel to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Chiefs in the highly anticipated showdown between Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes. Both teams will be looking to advance to 3-0 and make an early statement in the AFC. The Chiefs enter as 5.5 point favorites with a total O/U of 52. The weather will be a factor as the forecast calls for rain throughout the game. These two teams last met in 2018 resulting in a 27-24 Chiefs victory.
ATS (Against the spread)
Ravens +5.5 (-120)
The Ravens opened the week as 6.5 point underdogs and has since moved to +5.5 showing that the money is trending towards the Ravens against the spread. When these two teams last met, the game was well within the Ravens grasp until a late Patrick Mahomes to Tyreek Hill touchdown on fourth and eleven. The Chiefs will be without Hill in this match up, and will also be down starting running back Damien Williams and starting left tackle Eric Fisher. All three of these injuries are significant and will test how deep the Kansas City offense really is against a stout Ravens defense. The secondary has been a strength for Baltimore but with recent injuries to Tavon Young and Jimmy Smith, their depth will be put to the test. The forecast calls for rain and thunderstorms throughout the entire game which should hamper some expectation of a shootout. The Ravens will use this to their advantage and deploy the power run game that was successful in last year’s meeting. If the Ravens are able to slow the game down and keep Mahomes on the sideline, the defense will be able to stay fresh and finish the job this time around. Look for Jackson to continue to take care of the football and put the Ravens in position for a huge AFC road victory.
Prediction- Ravens 27 Chiefs 21
Under 52 points (-120)
As mentioned above, the conditions in this game are going to be wet and sloppy which usually translates onto the field. Both teams have enough fire power to light up the scoreboard, but it will be on the ground where they try and establish dominance in the poor conditions. The battle for time of possession will be key in the outcome of this game and I expect both offenses to target long sustained drives to keep their defense fresh. You can only hold these two teams out of the end zone and while both will find success, I believe they fall short of the high projected total.
Total rushing yards- Mark Ingram over 57.5 (-112)
Total rushing attempts- Mark Ingram over 11.5 (-112)
Ingram was held in check last week as most of the damage on the ground was done by Jackson. This is going to be the type of “pick your poison” that will keep defenses awake at night game planning for the Ravens. Ingram has yet to see 15 attempts on the ground in 2019 (13, 14), but this is shaping up to be a game that could be decided by the run game. With sloppy conditions expected, look for the Ravens to get Ingram going early and often in an attempt to wear down the defense and keep Mahomes off the field. This is a formula that worked last season and got Baltimore within striking distance of a victory. Expect Ingram to play a huge role in this game and to exceed the impact he will have projected by these totals.
Any time touchdown scorer- Travis Kelce (-145)
It is no secret the Ravens struggle to defend tight ends in the passing game and was no different in the 2018 match up between these two teams. Kelce burned the Ravens defense for 77 yards on seven catches, including a touchdown. Tony Jefferson did not play in that game last and figures to be matched up with Kelce often in the passing game. Unfortunately with Kelce, he will have the advantage no matter who is guarding him and it is more about containing him then stopping him. With less than favorable match ups for the Kansas City receivers, look for the Mahomes to Kelce connection to be out in full force. It will be in the red zone where he gives the Ravens defense fits and they take advantage of this mismatch at least once in match up.
Week 2 Recap
Ravens -12.5 (-110) - Loss
Team to score first: Ravens -190 - Win
Money Line/Total Points Parlay- Ravens to win & over 46.5 points (+110)- Loss
Gus Edwards rushing yards- Over 37.5 (-112)- Loss
Lamar Jackson rushing yards- Over 41.5 (-112) - Win
Season record - 7-3 (70%)