Ravens Betting Primer: Futures

With the ever-growing sports betting industry, Baltimore Beatdown will be your one stop shop for expert advice on how to bet on the Ravens week in and week out. Why just watch your team when you can take your knowledge, coupled with expert advice from your trusted Ravens source and turn a profit sitting on your couch?

Leading up to each week’s match up we will be breaking down all our favorite available bets being offered and provide our advice and insight to help you make an educated decision on where to place your money.

First, we will look at the futures bets being offered for the Ravens and whether any have the potential to cash out or if you should stay away.

Player Props (Futures)

Lamar Jackson passing TD totals- O/U 16.5

Over +100

Under -122

This total would project Lamar Jackson to throw for one touchdown a week throughout the entire season with Vegas leaning towards the UNDER. I feel very good about going with the over here with a projection of 20-23 total passing TDs as the Ravens have made it a primary focus to get the passing game going. The Ravens had a poor redzone/TD conversion rate in 2018 where they ranked 20^th in the league at 55.74%. With the expected emergence of second-year tight end’s Mark Andrews and Hayden Hurst, coupled with the addition of Miles Boykin, expect that to trend upwards in 2019.

Final Take: OVER +100 (16.5 passing TDs)

Confidence: HIGH

Lamar Jackson rushing TD totals- O/U 6

Over -110

Under -110

This number seems low as Lamar scored 5 times in the span of 7 games on the ground, but the team has emphasized that he will be running less in 2019. Still, Lamar has proven that he can break one at anytime and anywhere on the field, which was on full display in Week 17 of the 2018 season when he torched the Browns for two rushing TD’s. Even if his total rushing attempts over the span of a full season decrease, there is no reason not to expect some fireworks in 2019.

Final Take: OVER -110 (6 rushing TDs)

Confidence: HIGH

Mark Ingram rushing TD totals – O/U 7

Over -116

Under -106

This is a tough one to project as we have only seen Ingram rush for more than seven TD’s twice in his career, most recently in 2017 - which was also the best season of his career (12 TD’s on 14.4 APG). We have rarely seen Ingram used in the workhorse role as his highest APG (17.4) came in 2014, when he scored nine touchdowns. I am projecting Ingram to see anywhere from 17-20 touches per game, which would bode well for his touchdown totals. The wildcard in this scenario is that we are unsure about the redzone/goal line work and if Ingram will be featured and whether or not Gus Edwards has a significant role.

Final Take- OVER -116 (7 rushing TDs)

Confidence: Moderate/High

Mark Ingram rushing title (most regular season yards) +5000

This is firmly nothing more than dart throw as it is not a likely scenario while also not completely out of the realm of possibilities. Looking at Gus Edwards production after Lamar Jackson took over last season and stretching that to a full season projection, he would have beat out Ezekiel Elliott for the rushing title. Ingram figures to be the lead back and is a more complete back than Edwards which should translate to plenty of production on the field. Expect to see anywhere from 17-20 carries a game which would give him ample opportunity to hit the century mark in any given contest. There are worse things to put ten bucks on, but to me this is nothing more than a shot in the dark.

Confidence: Low

Lamar Jackson MVP +6500

Again, there are worse things to put ten bucks on and while we should expect to see a big jump from year one to year two, MVP hopes may be a year or two away for Jackson. We have seen a recent trend in the NFL of second-year QB’s taking a big leap into the MVP discussions, most recently with Carson Wentz in 2017 and Patrick Mahomes, who won the award in 2018.

Jackson has all the traits to be a special player in the league and it is not crazy to think that he takes the league by storm in 2019 with much improved passing numbers and highlight reel plays on the ground. We saw it at Louisville - he concluded t his Freshman year with the same question marks following his rookie year, only to go out and win the Heisman trophy the next season.

Confidence: Low/Moderate

---

Team Props (Futures)

2019-20 Win Total: O/U 8.5

Over +120

Under -140

Based on the odds above, Vegas is leaning towards the Ravens finishing 8-8 or below. This seems to be a popular prediction with the national media as most aren’t sold on the “revolutionary” offense the Ravens will be employing in 2019. While it might not be this extreme, it will be schemed to the strength of the players and should simplify things for Jackson, allowing him to hit the easy ones while opening the possibility for a few home runs. The offensive makeover coupled with a very good defense has me thinking more in the range of a 10-6 or 9-7 campaign and I love the value getting +120 here.

Final take: Over +120 (8.5 Wins)

Confidence: HIGH

Most defensive interceptions (regular season) +1000

After finishing the 2018 season with an astounding 27 interceptions compared to the Ravens 12, Vegas has the Bears tied with the Ravens for best odds to finish the 2019 season with the most interceptions. This seems rather questionable as the difference in 15 INT’s is significant but shows you how well respected All-Pro safety Earl Thomas is around the league.

Aside from his leadership, former safety Eric Weddle offered little to no value at the back end of the defense which translated to the Ravens finishing in the bottom half of the league in takeaways. With the addition of Earl Thomas, the Ravens now have arguably the best positional group in the NFL and having a natural ball hawk to account for should lead to more interception opportunities for the rest of the group.

The question will be whether the pass rush will generate enough pressure to force quarterbacks into uncomfortable throws allowing more opportunities for picks, which is not an issue for the Bears. With 10/1 odds and the addition of Earl Thomas, this is not a bad bet and worth a look with minimal investment.

Confidence: Moderate

AFC North Champions +280

Despite winning the division in 2018, Vegas has the Ravens slotted with the third best odds to win the AFC North this season - railing the Browns (+135) and Steelers (+170). The Browns have received all the offseason hype and have the most talented roster on paper, but that needs to translate to the field and time will tell if the hype was warranted. I fully expect the AFC North crown to come down to the final weeks of the season with the Ravens in the thick of it as their final two games are against none other than the Browns and Steelers.

With great value at +280 and the wager likely to come down to the final weeks of the season, it’s hard not to like the value over risk here and I would go into this bet with confidence to cash out.

Confidence: Moderate/High

AFC Champions +1700

A lot would need to go right in order to see this come to fruition. The Ravens seem to have “retooled” rather than “rebuild” in hopes of contending this season, while getting younger and faster with an eye towards the future. I fully expect the Ravens to be able to compete with any team in the NFL in 2019, and certainly a division title is within their grasps.

However, making a run towards a Super Bowl berth is a different beast and would require a multitude of things to go right including health, young players taking a leap to pro bowl status and defeating teams like the Patriots and Chiefs, most likely on the road. I am fading this bet as I believe a Super Bowl window is opening in Baltimore with 2019 being a stepping stone season in which they can get a playoff win or two under their belt.

Confidence: Low/Moderate

Super Bowl Champions +3600

Unless the investment was minimal, I am fading this selection. We have seen crazier things than a quarterback breaking out in his second year, a top-ranked defense and a ball control offense making a run at the Super Bowl. Look at the 2012 49ers and 2013 Seahawks for similarly structured teams who made a Super Bowl run playing great defense and controlling the pace of the game on offense.

Still, the 2019 Ravens will be relying on young players to fill in big voids on the defense, and on offense there is a lot of unproven talent. Cheer for them to make a run at the Super Bowl, but don’t put your money on it.

Confidence: Low

*Odds provided via Fanduel SportsBook App*