ATS (Against the spread)
Ravens -5.5 (-110)
The top ranked offense in the National Football League will play host to the top ranked defense in a game which many believe could be a Super Bowl preview. San Francisco dominated Green Bay 37-8 at home last Sunday night while Baltimore knocked off the Rams in blowout fashion 45-6 on the road on Monday Night Football. Both teams have used a power run game to move the sticks, pile up points and grind the clock on opposing defenses. The 49ers defense has been stingy, especially against opposing pass offenses, ranking first in passing yards per game. Although, their run defense has been vulnerable and have allowed multiple 100-yard rushers over the past few weeks. With the weather calling for rain throughout the duration of the game, this will be an advantage towards the Ravens who are rushing for a staggering 210 yards per game. The 49ers run game will be short-handed with the absence of Matt Breida while the Ravens defense has been dominant against the run, most recently allowing just 12 yards to Todd Gurley and the Rams. Jimmy Garoppolo has been good when the conditions are favorable, but that won’t be the case on the road against a Ravens secondary that has suddenly become elite since acquiring Marcus Peters. The Ravens have the MVP in Lamar Jackson and one of the most dominant rushing attacks in recent history, playing at home with a forecast that supports a ground and pound tempo. We keep waiting for this train to slow down, but until that happens it’s tough to go against a team clicking on all cylinders, making the Ravens the clear pick here.
Prediction — Ravens: 31 49ers: 17
Team to score first - Ravens (-152)
One of the main keys to success for the Ravens season thus far has been their ability to get ahead early and play defense with the lead. They haven’t trailed in a game since way back in week 8 when they trailed the Seahawks in the second quarter. The first time you see the Ravens offense can put the defense in a state of shock and before you know it they are going in for an early touchdown. The defense has been bullies and will come out energized with the home crowd behind them, giving the Ravens the first opportunity to score, something they’ve done many times this year.
Mark Ingram rush attempts – Over 13.5 (-128)
In a game which should be defined by the Ravens offense versus the 49ers defense, Baltimore will need their run game going at full throttle, starting with Mark Ingram. Both teams pride themselves on their physicality, and no player on the Ravens offense is better suited for this kind of slug-fest. Expect the offense to lean heavily on Ingram as tone-setter and key piece to long, sustained drives.
George Kittle total receptions – Over 5.5 (-126)
Mark Andrews total receptions – Over 3.5 (+100)
Teams have struggled to throw against both defenses as of late, and the rainy forecast does nothing to inspire change. For both quarterbacks, the tight end position has been their best friend, specifically Andrews and Kittle. With strong secondaries making life tough on the wide receivers, the passing game will need to get kick-started with the tight ends. Expect many quick, high-percentage throws to both players to combat the less than ideal conditions. Kittle is banged up but that didn’t stop him from going for 129 yards and touchdown on six catches his first game back from injury. Andrews is coming off a quiet performance with two catches, but he simply was not needed in the beat down of the Rams. Both players figure to be heavily involved in a physical match up.
Week 12 Recap
Ravens - ML (money line) (-180) – WIN
Over/Under 47.5 (-107) – WIN
Winning margin (4-way) Ravens by 1-13 (+145) – LOSS
Marquise Brown total receptions Over 3.5 (+134) – WIN
Marquise Brown total receiving yards Over 45.5 (-112) – LOSS
Season record: 27-23 (54%)