Joe Flacco prop bets line up with a solid season

Earlier today, BetOnline.AG posted Regular Season Prop bets for the first time.

“Everyone loves Super Bowl prop bets, so BetOnline.AG sports book created the worlds first Regular Season Props for the NFL’s biggest stars.”

Joe Flacco, the Ravens franchise quarterback, is among the “biggest stars.” BetOnline.AG is offering three possible fields to bet on.

Joe Flacco:
Passing Yards: Over/Under 3,225

Looking over Joe’s passing yards on pro-football-reference.com and sorting by yards, the odds look in favor of the over. Only three times in Joe’s career has he missed the mark, one of which occurred after tearing his ACL in 2015. Joe recorded at least 3,225 yards from 2009—2014, then returned and produced his highest total (4,317) in 2016. Last year, 2017, Joe posted the fewest yards through the air since 2011.

Decision: Take the over. By the end of the season, Jeremy Maclin lost snaps to Chris Moore due to his lack of play-making and what many believe was quitting on the team. Mike Wallace and Benjamin Watson couldn’t do it all. Now, with Michael Crabtree, Willie Snead and John Brown, Joe isn’t bouncing back too far. Out of ten seasons, Joe’s produced over this line seven times. Hell, his career season average is 3,217 yards. The line is only eight yards higher. Joe will beat this.

Touchdown Passes: Over/Under 19.5

The Ravens and passing touchdowns are never going far, which leaves this next prop bet a difficult decision. Joe has thrown for 200 touchdowns in his ten-year career. Perfectly balanced at 20 per year. With multiple red-zone threats on the roster, he is more than capable of completing the over, but Alex Collins and the conservative play-calling with Tucker in tow leaves this a rocky bet.

In ten years, Joe Flacco has missed this mark four times. The ACL tear year and his rookie season, just like the yards prop bet from earlier. He also missed the 20 touchdown mark in 2013, where he posted over 3,900 yards.

Decision: I bet the over. I think Hayden Hurst makes his rookie season noteworthy, capping off strong scoring production. Also, if John Brown is healthy, the Ravens are burying deep touchdowns.

Interceptions: Over/Under 15

It feels like this an obvious over situation without looking at the stats, but Joe’s only hit the 15 interception threshold twice in his career (2013, 2016). In his ten seasons, he’s thrown 130 interceptions, leaving him with a 13 interception average per season. Though he has better weapons than in years prior, he’ll be more confident in throwing their way, as opposed to the check-down nature with Dennis Pitta and Watson. Maybe the confidence leads to more difficult throws, leading to more picks.

Decision: Even after all the talk above, I still think Joe posts less than 15 interceptions. The 22-interception year was an anomaly; he’s gone 80% on recording the under. I’m confident with Joe playing lights out this season.