Following a commanding Week 11 victory over the Packers, the Baltimore Ravens chances to make the postseason have improved to 65-percent, according to 538. Their analytics based simulator estimates the Ravens will finish with 8.7 wins, 7.3 losses and a +66.5 point differential. Currently sitting at 5-5, a 4-2 record down the stretch should enable Baltimore to secure a wild card berth in a mediocre AFC.
New England and Pittsburgh are in line to receive first round byes, each is expected to win more than twelve games and currently have a better than 95-percent chance to win their divisions. Despite a two game losing streak, Kansas City is still expected to make it to the postseason with a 91-percent chance to win the AFC West. The AFC South is poised to put two teams into the playoffs, with Jacksonville at 96-percent and Tennessee at 73-percent to suit up for action on wildcard weekend.
This leaves the Ravens competing with the Chargers, Raiders, Bengals and Bills for the final wild card spot. 538’s model gives each of these teams a less than 20-percent chance of overtaking Baltimore. The Ravens should be heavy favorites in their remaining contests against Houston, Cleveland and Indianapolis. If they can find a way to win those three games, one more win against either Detroit, Pittsburgh or Cincinnati should be enough to punch their ticket to the dance.
After ten games, the Ravens struggling offense may prohibit them from being considered legitimate contenders for the Super Bowl. That perception can change in a hurry if crucial left tackle Ronnie Stanley returns to the field, enabling Joe Flacco to give his receivers just a few more opportunities to make plays downfield. If Baltimore does accomplish their goal of reaching the postseason, nobody will want to play their playoff tested roster and opportunistic defense.