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Yes, we get it, it's only Week 2 now. No one should be discounting the Ravens' future based on only one game. But that doesn't mean that it's too early to start projecting and forecasting. That's exactly what the analytical experts at numberFire have been doing.
Here is the firm's current predictions for the team.
Projected Record: 8.27 - 7.73
Playoffs: 37.02%
Division: 29.66%
Conference Championship: 5.14%
Super Bowl: 2.68%
Power Rankings: 10
Although I'm on board with the 10th place power ranking, I'm also a little skeptical about the team only winning eight games. While numberFire touts their rankings and projections as some of the best in the business, I have to disagree with this week's rankings.
The folks over at ESPN are a little more high on the Ravens. Their FPI (Football Power Index) likes the Ravens' chances.
FPI Top 10
| TM | FPI | PROJECTED WINS |
CHANCE TO WIN DIV. |
CHANCE TO MAKE PLAYOFFS |
CHANCE TO WIN SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Packers | 6.0 | 11.0 | 85.8% | 91.5% | 20.2% |
| Patriots | 5.2 | 10.2 | 50.1% | 70.0% | 10.4% |
| Seahawks | 4.8 | 9.2 | 36.3% | 58.2% | 7.1% |
| Colts | 4.8 | 9.8 | 61.6% | 70.3% | 9.4% |
| Eagles | 4.7 | 9.6 | 48.3% | 68.9% | 8.1% |
| Broncos | 3.4 | 9.8 | 44.9% | 64.5% | 6.4% |
| Bengals | 3.4 | 9.7 | 49.8% | 64.2% | 6.0% |
| Cowboys | 3.1 | 9.4 | 42.6% | 64.9% | 6.2% |
| Ravens | 2.6 | 8.7 | 27.8% | 42.8% | 2.5% |
| Steelers | 2.3 | 8.3 | 21.8% | 34.4% | 1.9% |
The latter projections give the Ravens a 5% better chance of reaching the postseason, and forecast the Baltimore squad to win about .5 more games.
So do you agree with these projections? Or are they just flat our wrong?