Author's Note: I'm posting the contents of the article as a fanpost in order to maintain the article's visibility and, more importantly, the subsequent discussion for a bit longer given the amount of time than usual.

The argument that the Baltimore Ravens "need a '#1 Wide Receiver'" has long been a popular topic around these parts. This is especially so this year as our best receiver potentially enters Free Agency and the 2015 NFL Draft possesses uncommonly good receiver talent. It may also be because we've seen too many playoff games end on the hands of a receiver. Or it maybe because the Ravens have never had what feels like a true #1 receiver (our leading receiver in franchise history by yards is 1996 Michael Jackson with 1,201 yards -- I know right?)

But rather than wax poetic about about how the top receivers in the NFL are almost all top 5 picks (where we haven't picked since 2000), or how Baltimore's best receiver years by receiving yards were also our worst as a franchise (1996, 2013, 2007, 2005), I thought I'd do a numbers study to see if we can get to the bottom of this question objectively. If I don't persuade you, that's OK. It's not an argument with a definite right or wrong in the strictest sense.

However....I do believe this study's evidence supports one conclusion strongly: that there is virtually no correlation between having a dominant #1 Receiver and team success; in fact it may be the opposite. Therefore, the argument that the Ravens must acquire one for Flacco is a myth.

With that out of the way...

Defining a true #1 Receiver to start our study

The term "#1 Receiver" is a subjective term. Sure, every team on the depth chart has a "WR1" but that's not how we really use it. We really mean a dominant player equaled by few at his position. Unfortunately there's no standardized way to define that, especially across multiple seasons. Do you use fantasy points? That's not good because touchdowns are fluky statistic. Marcedes Lewis had 11 touchdowns in 2010 and a lot of fantasy points. He's been a total bust since Jacksonville overpaid the hell out of him following that fluke season.

Yards is probably the simplest and best measure here. A receiver with lots of yards in a season probably isn't a fluke. Lots of receivers can have a 10 touchdown season by being right place right time (think Laurent Robinson on Dallas in 2011, who coincidentally also went to Jacksonville the year after and was a total bust also) but few receivers are going to lead the NFL in yards and put up nearly 100 catches by sheer accident. It happens, but it's pretty rare.

1,400 yards is our metric for a receiver who had a #1 caliber season

The best way is to start by setting the threshold for a dominant receiver in a single season then. After all, we're not worried about the years where great receivers had down years with 800 yards -- we want to know whether a guy leading the NFL in yards correlates to his team having great success in the win column. Proving causation would always be a tall order but correlation is a lot easier to determine.

I settled on 1,400 yards because it struck the best balance of having enough data points without being too broad. 1,500 was too strict. 1,300 numbered in the hundreds of data points.

We start the study in 1990 to give us enough data while maintaining proximity to the modern era of passing. No ridiculous outliers like 1960s Charley Hennigan (sorry Charley).

Once we do this, we find that 65 receivers have had 1,400 yards or more in a season since 1990. That's a healthy sample of data and includes many of the best to ever lace them up.

Teams that did not make the playoffs

Now, the task is to cull the data and start figuring out how well their teams did and what the context surrounding them was.

Therefore, the first thing we do is find out the bad teams. The ones where dominant receivers couldn't put their team over the top or otherwise be a real difference maker. The ones who didn't make the playoffs, despite their best efforts.

In this sample, we have 26 such receivers -- 40% of our sample.

Before we even get off the ground, 40% of the 1,400 yard receivers since 1990 played for non playoff teams. 22 of those 26 were on teams that failed to do better than 0.500 on the season. So our sample is nearly cut in half already. Not looking good for the "True #1 Receiver = Critical Ravens Need" argument.

Notable teams on this list:

• 2012 DET: The best receiver season by pure yardage in NFL history was Calvin Johnson's 2012. Maybe no receiver has dominated his opponent so completely as Megatron did that year. Of course, he had the most targets in NFL history too at 204 but I digress... Those Lions won a whole four games. In fact, they are still winless in the playoffs since Megatron was drafted. The closest they came strangely was this past year when they were carried by the league's #1 defense all year.
• 2013 CLE: Josh Gordon's 2013 was a masterpiece of playing the wide receiver position, while navigating numerous drug test and legal land mines with equal skill. A shame Cleveland didn't make it matter by winning more than four games.
• 2005 ARI: Two Cardinal receivers posted 1,400 yard seasons in 2005. And then somehow, some way, that team still only won 5 games. Let me know when you figure that one out because I can't.
• It's actually painful how many times Larry Fitzgerald is in this category.

Teams that went one and done in the playoffs

Now for the playoff teams with great receivers who teased us all season only to bow out early:

It feels like half the receivers on this list played for Peyton Manning...

Anyway, that's another 21 teams off the list. These receivers had some of the best seasons by a receiver in NFL history, on some of their best offenses in history, and their team still promptly went one and done when their team needed them most. Weird. Counting the first group, 72% of our 65 receivers to post 1,400 yards or better enjoyed exactly zero playoff wins...

Notable teams on this list:

• 2014 PIT: 2nd best offense in NFL sputtered at home to the tune of 15 offensive points after struggling to run the ball, protect their QB, or make big downfield plays against a team starting street players in the secondary. Maybe having no viable backup Running Back, no Right Tackle, and a 31st ranked defense was also a problem? Anyone?
• 2000 STL: The Greatest Show on Turf had no receivers on this list in 1999. They won the Super Bowl. In 2000, they had TWO receivers break 1,400 yards. They won zero games in January. This is really getting weird...
• 2014 DEN: The Broncos had FOUR receivers with 10 touchdowns or better in 2013. They didn't just have a #1 receiver, they had MULTIPLE #1 receivers in 2013 and 2014 on one of the best offenses we've ever seen by nearly every metric. They were arguably more talented in 2014 with Sanders replacing Decker. A lot of good those receivers did them in 2014 in scoring 13 against an inferior Colts team that would lose by 38 the next week to a team with no #1 wide receivers.

Playoff-game winning Teams -- finally!

Is our long nightmare over? Have we finally found a dominant receiver to post a #1 caliber season and win a playoff game, too?

Finally, we're getting somewhere. These 15 receivers posted 1,400 yard seasons or better and saw their teams actually win playoff games (but not the Super Bowl). There's just one problem. These are also some of the best receivers to EVER play the game of football. Randy Moss? Jerry Rice? Michael Irvin? Yeah, these are Hall of Famers or will be soon. Oh, and Jimmy Smith is there, too. Jacksonville, you may have missed horribly on Robinson and Lewis but by god, you were good in 1999 with Jimmy Smith.

Notable teams on this list:

• 2000 MIN: Randy Moss and the Vikings had a great 2000, advancing to the NFC Championship. Then they lost 41-0 to the New York Giants. 41-0. Yes, you read that right. Those same Kerry Collins-led Giants got massacred the next week by the 2000 Ravens, failing to score a single offensive point. Thus was born the phrase "Defense Wins Championships" to go along with "Sexy Offenses Often Fail Spectacularly".
• 2014 GB: Jordy Nelson had a great 2014 campaign but...he was also playing with the league MVP who also made Randall Cobb a top 5 receiver in 2014. So GB actually had two dominant receivers. Two good receivers beats one monster receiver all...day...long. GB has also kept the receiver roster loaded with multiple talents after doing just as well with Greg Jennings and Jermichael Finley before these guys came along.
• 2007 NE: Randy Moss turned in arguably the greatest season ever by a Wide Receiver on one of the best teams ever. That team would score 14 points in the Super Bowl and lose to a team playing some dudes named David Tyree and Amani Toomer.
• 2013 DEN: I feel bad picking on the Broncos but...their 2013 Super Bowl against the Seahawks speaks for itself.

Super Bowl winning receivers with 1,400 yards or better

At last, the three names. Just three men have posted #1 caliber seasons and also won a Super Bowl in the same year.

And yet even that has to be given some context. Two of those names are Hall of Famers on two of the best dynasties in NFL history.

Michael Irvin had the best season of any receiver to win the Super Bowl. He also played with a running back who rushed for 1,733 yards and led the NFL in production by a freaking mile. Yeah, Emmitt Smith was kind of good. And so was Deion Sanders and Charles Haley (both Hall of Famers as well) for that matter but Emmit was twice as good as the #2 running back in 1995. This team was stacked.

Jerry Rice meanwhile needs no context. He's the best PLAYER ever to play the game of football as voted on by a large panel of voters in 2010 for NFL Films. Not the best receiver, the best player. He also played with the best quarterback to ever lace them up on the preeminent dynasty in NFL history.

You know what else 1994 San Francisco had? League MVP Steve Young and Defensive Player of the Year Deion Sanders. Yeah, the 49ers were pretty fucking good all around, too. No wonder the real Super Bowl was played each year between Dallas and San Francisco back then.

The third, Victor Cruz, played for a 9-7 team. That receiver's counterpart, Hakeem Nicks, himself posted 1,192 yards during Eli Manning's best season as a pro. Nicks carried the Giants against Green Bay with a 7-146-2 statline. Cruz produced 5-74-0. Without Nicks opposite Cruz, the Giants don't beat 15-1 Green Bay. And yet, despite their outstanding play all season, it was the Giants' third unheralded and forgotten receiver, Mario Manningham, who delivered the decisive plays in their final two playoff games against San Francisco and New England to deliver the crown to New York.

Verdict: Judge for yourself

Would I like to have a receiver like one of those guys mentioned above? Sure I would. You want the best players at every position if you can get them somehow. We did try to draft Dez Bryant once upon a time. BPA applies to all positions (mostly).

However, philosophically, there just isn't much correlation between the mystical idea of the true #1 Receiver and sustained team greatness. Time and again, it's just not the teams with the true #1 who go anywhere. The ones who do are also great in many other places. And those teams would go far with or without an elite #1.

So if you want to talk to me about why Ozzie needs to get Joe Flacco a "true #1 Receiver" because he deserves one, I will agree with you as long as you can promise me he'll be a Hall of Famer, too.

Until then, give me a stud quarterback (Flacco: check), a fine defense (check), and multiple good-enough weapons to carry a game if called upon (check), and I'll show you a team that has that championship substance.

By the way, anyone know who the best receiver on the field in Super Bowl XLIX was between the NFL's two best teams? Some street free agent named Chris Matthews who had never caught a pass all season until that day.

Yep, I think we'll be OK if we don't get that "True #1 Receiver" and have to ride with two #2's.

Thanks for reading if you made it this far.

Follow me on Twitter: @jerreegarcia. I may one day actually start tweeting about these stats...maybe...