Ex-NFL GM says Shane Ray will fall to the third or fourth round

We've already covered Shane Ray's recent arrest and subsequent draft stock plummet. Until now, we havent really known exactly how far he would drop and we won't truly know until draft day comes. However, it appears that there are more than a few ex-NFL coaches and GMs coming out to say that Ray's draft stock has gone a lot further down than what most would have imagined.

Former Tampa Bay Buccaneers general manager Mark Dominick thinks that the 2014 SEC Defensive Player of the Year will fall all the way to the third or fourth round according to Michael David Smith of NBC Sports.

Former head coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Super Bowl winning coach of the Indianapolis Colts Tony Dungy had this to say about where he would place Ray on his board:

It probably would for me (dropping Ray from his draft board) because of when it happened, not the fact that someone smokes marijuana or is caught with marijuana. But when you’re leading up to the biggest moment of your life so far, you can’t have those kinds of things happen. You just can’t.

And Dungy makes a great point here. Ray had everything to lose from going out and getting caught with absolutely nothing to gain. With the draft only days away at the time of his arrest, most prospects will be enjoying getting talked to by various teams and just sitting around relaxing before what is assuredly going to be a tiring experience with the NFL Draft and subsequent press conferences.

With the current way that the NFL and even the UFC is handling recent substance abuse issues should cause NFL teams to pause before announcing Ray as their selection. The risk of taking a player so high in the draft is already present, but adding to it a player's vice and inability to stay out of trouble could see Ray fall pretty dramatically.

Now the Ravens need assistance in the pass rush department. While the Ravens were one of the better teams in the league last season, finishing second in the league with 49 total sacks, the Ravens need depth behind Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil mostly due to their age. Both players will be over 30 this season and at some point, there will start a dramatic fall off for each player in their ability to beat younger and stronger offensive linemen. Shane Ray could be a great opportunity at a lower draft pick for the Ravens. A low risk, high reward type of player that the Ravens typically love to go after.

If the Ravens could select Ray in the late third or fourth round, it would count as a great steal by total value. Even though analysts have had Ray all over their boards, he was generally a consensus top 10 pick up until his arrest. Getting a top 10 talent all the way down around the 100 mark would be impressive for a team that prides itself of draft day steals.