I received an email form Jimmy Shaprio about a website called www.PredictionMachine.com. It comes to us courtesy of Paul Bessire, who is a statistician and sports writer and has developed a simulator that predicts the outcomes of games by playing them over and over for 50,000 times until he gets an average score. This means his "Predictalator" has actually already played the entire 2010 NFL season 50,000 times!
Unfortunately, his Prediction Machine has the Jets not only winning the Super Bowl, but beating the Baltimore Ravens in the season opener on Monday night. At least he has the Ravens finishing atop the AFC North with an 11-5 record.
Check out his email to me after the 'Jump' with a link to his site and some of the prediction categories.
I thought you might be interested to see the Ravens 16 game simulation courtesy of Paul Bessire of www.PredictionMachine.com. If you’re interested in speaking to Paul about these numbers via phone or email questions, please let me know. Or you’re more than welcome to just post the numbers yourself as long as you credit PredictionMachine.com.
PredictionMachine.com strives to be the most accurate and trusted source for predicting sports outcomes. The state-of-the-art, Prediction Machine, was built by Paul Bessire, a statistician and veteran sports writer, who offers his in-depth analysis and unique takes through his blog posts and game predictions.
In sports, matchups dictate outcomes. Instead of data mining to attempt to find historical trends that may lend some insight into future games - a common, yet misleading approach for many other predictive models - PredictionMachine.com's accuracy stems from the Predictalator (a fancy name for the Machine), which plays an upcoming game 50,000 times before it's actually played. It’s actually played the whole NFL season 50,000 times already.
The results are always fun to look at. Please see the links below plus a season simulation for the Ravens.
Predicted Standings: http://predictionmachine.com/
Divisional Previews (which includes a Super Bowl prediction): http://predictionmachine.com/
Over/Under Win Totals : http://predictionmachine.com/
Team Stats: http://predictionmachine.com/
Fantasy Projections: http://predictionmachine.com/
|
Baltimore Ravens Schedule |
||||
|
Week |
Opponent |
Ravens Score |
Opponent Score |
Win % |
|
1 |
@ Jets |
14.1 |
18.1 |
38.3 |
|
2 |
@ Bengals |
19.4 |
18.4 |
52.8 |
|
3 |
33.7 |
12.7 |
86.2 |
|
|
4 |
@ Steelers |
19.9 |
17.0 |
58.6 |
|
5 |
28.0 |
14.4 |
78.8 |
|
|
6 |
@ Patriots |
23.0 |
24.9 |
45.1 |
|
7 |
24.5 |
11.6 |
79.6 |
|
|
8 |
Bye |
|
|
|
|
9 |
30.7 |
17.2 |
77.1 |
|
|
10 |
@ Falcons |
23.3 |
22.4 |
52.5 |
|
11 |
@ Panthers |
23.3 |
19.0 |
61.5 |
|
12 |
29.6 |
11.2 |
85.2 |
|
|
13 |
Steelers |
23.6 |
14.6 |
72.1 |
|
14 |
@ Texans |
26.3 |
23.3 |
58.0 |
|
15 |
29.5 |
22.1 |
65.7 |
|
|
16 |
@ Browns |
29.9 |
14.9 |
88.1 |
|
17 |
Bengals |
22.7 |
15.7 |
68.0 |
|
|
|
Points/Game |
Point/Game |
Total Wins |
|
|
|
25.1 |
17.3 |
10.7 |
About Paul Bessire Paul Bessire, who built the Predictalator, is one of the foremost authorities on mathematically modeling and analyzing all sports. For more than six years since earning his Master's degree in Quantitative Analysis (with a focus on Finance and Sports), he has turned what was his longtime hobby of predicting and writing about sports outcomes into his full-time profession. About PredictionMachine.com Launching during the 2010 Super Bowl, PredictionMachine.com strives to be the most accurate and trusted source for predicting sports outcomes. The state-of-the-art, unbiased Predictalator ("the Prediction Machine") was built by Paul Bessire, a statistician and veteran sports writer, who offers his in-depth analysis and unique takes through his blog posts and game predictions.
Over that time period, Paul has had great success, like accurately choosing the winner of: five of the last six Super Bowls, including last year's four-point (exactly) win by Pittsburgh; five of the last six World Series, including the Yankees' 2009 win in six and the 2006 Cardinals win in five (both to the game); five of the last six Stanley Cup champions; and five of the last six NCAA Tournament champions (as of Selection Sunday).
Paul also just bested more than 100 members of the media to win the 2009 Richard GardnerCharity Pro Football Pick'em contest in its first year in existence.
Most recently, Paul Bessire served as the Product Manager of Quantitative Analysis and Content for FoxSports Interactive. There, Paul was responsible for the math behind the historical simulation sports games at WhatIfSports.com as well as any FoxSports.com, Scout.com or WhatIfSports.com articles that were created from that technology. In that role, Paul wrote over 1,000 articles and conducted more than 500 radio interviews. He has also collaborated on countless other print, online and TV features with many of the most recognized sports media (more info here), some sports leagues and teams and many of the best minds in the sports analysis business.
PredictionMachine.com is Paul Bessire's latest endeavor, which features the Predictalator – the most in-depth, state-of-the-art sports prediction software ever created.
Paul was also recently the featured speaker at the annual "Symposium on Statistics and Operations Research in Sports"that was held in St. Louis around the 2009 MLB All-Star Game.
In sports, matchups dictate outcomes. Instead of data mining to attempt to find historical trends that may lend some insight into future games - a common, yet misleading approach for many other predictive models - PredictionMachine.com's accuracy stems from the Predictalator, which plays an upcoming game 50,000 times before it's actually played.
This is the best way to account for every possible interaction between players (playing or not playing/injured), coaches, officials, fans (homefield advantage), weather and more. Any individual who tries to make a prediction, coaching decision, etc. is attempting to do this type of comparison in his/her head. Without the aid of a "machine," these comparisons are very difficult to do quickly and without personal, subjective biases. The Predictalator can handle it – and better than any other application available.
There is an answer for every game, event or contest and PredictionMachine.com will be your place to get it. At PredictionMachine.com, we play the game 50,000 times before it's actually played!
Everything in sports comes back to the numbers. Don't fight the numbers. Trust the numbers.