The Oakland Raiders fly east to visit the Baltimore Ravens with both teams coming off of impressive victories last week. The Raiders defeated the NY Jets in OT 16-13, on a 57 yard FG by Sebastian Janikowski. The Ravens won a rare road game with a resounding 27-13 defeat of the Miami Dolphins. Today, they face each other, with similar styles and high expectations of a win.

Both teams focus their offense on their running game. The Raiders rely on rookie Darren McFadden and veteran Justin Fargas to provide the offense, with second year QB JaMarcus Russell throwing when he needs to but not relying on him to carry the team. Similarly, the Ravens hand off mostly to Willis McGahee and Le'Ron McClain, and hope roookie QB Joe Flacco doesn't need to throw too many times and bring the team back from behind.

Earlier this week I blogged about how to beat the Raiders. Check out Thursday's post to read how I broke it down. It's safe to say I don't expect the Raiders to have much success on the ground against the NFL's #1 run defense. Therefore, in order to win, Oakland will need to rely on the passing game, which I just don't see JaMarcus having a career day on the road against us to get the job done. The big key then comes down to how their defense contains our running game, forcing us to be in the same position of having to win the game by passing our way to victory. If that happens, then it becomes even simpler to figure out the keys to the game. It then comes down to who wins the turnover battle and Special Teams. I expect these two challlenged offenses to turn the ball over more than a few times between them, so the winner of the TO battle should win the field position contest and be in position for easier scoring chances.

Special Teams will be another key to victory, as this also connects to the field position issue. Oakland's Special Teams has been very good, while the Ravens has been inconsistent, bordering on disappointing. One or two takeaways and a Special Teams TD, and the tide of the game can turn one way or the other pretty quickly, even to the point of deciding the outcome.

Of course, I have a hard time seeing the Raiders' defense outplaying the Ravens' defense. Even if they win the Special Teams battle of field position, I still expect our team to step up, take care of business and defend our home turf. The defense may bend but won't break and with the run stopped, the Raiders will not be able to rely on the pass game to move the ball without the result being the turnovers the Ravens feast on. Conversely, I see the Ravens running game taking charge, especially in the second half when the Ravens begin to wear down the Raiders front line and push them backwards for huge gains, consuming the yardage and timeclock. This will open up the passing game, which was impressive last week with Flacco earning his career high in yardage and QB rating. The inclusion in the offense's gameplan of tight end Todd Heap was a welcome addition and it's continuance will only help open up the passing lanes.

Finally, the home field advantage will be a huge lift to the Ravens, who go on the road for the next three games after this one. The Ravens always seem to play better in front of their fans and usually don't disappoint (other than the Titans' game!). Expecting the Raiders to fly east to beat up a team with one of the top two defenses in the league will be a tall task for Oakland to accomplish. I just can't see it happening, as the Ravens win their second in a row, and then head on the road, with the first stop a return engagement in Cleveland, bringing with them a victory today and a 4-3 record.

Ravens:  23-10

After watching the Ravens win three games against what is considered mediocre teams (Cincinnati, Cleveland, Miami), while losing three games against tougher opponents (Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Indianapolis), do the Oakland Raiders fit in to the former or latter grouping? Based on their record and stats so far in 2008, you'd have to undoubtedly put them into the mediocre group and therefore expect the Ravens to come away with a victory this Sunday at home.

However, if you expect the Raiders to roll over and let the Ravens make it an easy victory, you've not been watching what has happened in the NFL so far this season. There have been so many upsets, that most every 'Last Man Standing (Suicide) Pool' is almost over! The Ravens beat a resurgent Miami Dolphins team by sticking to their gameplan and playing error free ball. If they do the same this week, the result should be the same as well. However, how do we stack up against them on both offense and defense? Without Miami's ability to stop our running atttack, we would not have been able to control the ball and the clock like we did. Will Oakland cooperate in the same way? Let's take a look.

The Raiders offense is only marginally better than the Ravens, ranking 23rd overall, compared to Baltimore's 26th ranking. The Raiders have earned their success on the ground, and that plays right into the Ravens' strength. JaMarcus Russell is hitting on just over 50% of his passes, with five TD's and two interceptions. While he is a big, physical presence behind center, he has not used it to run the ball, never gaining more than 11 yrds per game on the ground. He's been sacked 14 times and has a 76.0 QB rating. Conversely, the Ravens' Joe Flacco has completed just over 64% of his passes for two TD's and seven interceptions, with 12 sacks and a 68.8 QB rating. Not a huge difference between two guys on teams that rely heavily on the run game for their success.

As far as the running attacks, the Raiders have employed a two prong attack, with both Darren McFadden and Justin Fargas enjoying success. The rookie McFadden, however, is the star, averaging over five yards a carry, with one TD. Surprisingly, no Raider has scored more than one TD all season. Once again, this plays right into the Ravens defense's hands. Expect Baltimore to slow, if not shut down the Raiders rushing attack, forcing them into passing situations much more often than they will feel comfortable. Blitz Russell on every down and force him to make the  play. Don't forget to keep a defender around the line of scrimmage to make sure he doesn't try to scramble or check down to the short, quick, hot read. Defensively, the Ravens should be able to derail the Raiders offense and keep them from putting much more than some long field goals on the board, off the foot of Sebastian Janikowski, who is already 13 of 17 in FG attempts, with two of over 50 yards, including the game winning 57 yarder in OT last week to beat the NY Jets.

So then it would appear that the game will fall to the Ravens if they can move the ball in the same manner they did last week in Miami. The Ravens oiffense may be low ranked, but while their defense is rated #2 (#1 against the run), the Raiders defense is rated 26th overall, giving up 360 yards per game, almost 120 more than the Ravens. Oakland surrenders an average of 136 yards on the ground each game, allowing just over 24 points to their opponents. If the Ravens can put up 24 on Oakland, then this game will be in the bag as a win. However, we know if will also depend on who wins the turnover battle. If the Ravens play relatively mistake free football on offense and their opportunistic defense capitalizes on Oakland turnovers, then this will only aid us in getting the "W."

Statistically, this looks like a Ravens victory on paper. But we all know and have seen this season that the games are definitely not played on paper. However, I expect these statistics to play out, as the Ravens have proven to be a much tougher team at home, and for the Raiders to travel across the country and beat an excellent defense on the road is a little too much for even the negative thinking Ravens fans to expect. Let's just hope the stats play out to the game itself.

We shall see.

...but certainly not overconfident. While we're playing .500 ball and are firmly in second place in the AFC North, we are still two games behind the Steelers in the race for the division crown. At the beginning of the season, we thought we could compete with the Bengals, but were still believed to be well behind both the Steelers as well as the Browns heading into the regular season. Now, with victories over the Bengals and Browns, as well as the Dolphins, we are getting ready for the Oakland Raiders and their 2-4 record, which includes the recent 16-13 OT victory over the NY Jets.

While I am satisfied with their 3-3 record, I still have a bad taste in my mouth over those first two losses against the Steelers and especially the Titans. I would have been able to stomach splitting those two games, but losing both still frustrates me, as we could have actualy won both and rolled into week eight with a 5-1 record, which would have been sweet. But it time to do the same as the players and coaches and that is move on and focus on the next game this Sunday. Even with a win and a 4-3 recod, the Ravens are still facing an uphill batle if they want to continue improve on their dismal 2007 showing and 5-11 record. The second half of the schedule is a killer compared to the first, with games against the entire NFC East.

After this week at home, we go to Cleveland, where they will most likely be in a foul mood and seeking revenge for their 28-10 loss here in game two. The Browns are currently 2-4 and it doesn't get any easier for them this week, as they go to Jacksonville to play a tough Jaguars team after a disappointing 14-11 loss in Washington this past weekend. If they lose this Sunday, then we will head there to face a 2-5 team on a two game losing streak. However, the Browns play much tougher at home, as evidenced by their 35-14 victory over the previously undefeated Giants on MNF in week 6.

The Cleveland game represents the halfway point in our schedule. If I am so bold to predict and the Ravens follow through on my prediction of a third victory in a row, they will reach the halfway point with a 5-3 record, for which I will be very satisfied on an overall basis. However, beginning with the Cleveland game, we will be facing the next three games on the road, all against opponents with pretty decent offenses. After Cleveland, we head to Houston for the makeup game due to Hurricane Ike. and then to New Jersey to face the defending Super Bowl NY Giants in the Meadowlands. This is all part of a six game stretch that started with Indianapolis, which had us playing five of six on the road, a real tough stretch of games. If we finish it 3-3, it should be considered acceptable. If we can get through it with victories this weekend at home vs. the Raiders and on the road in Cleveland and Houston, followed by a loss to the Giants, we would finish the stretch of six games with a 4-2 record, which would be excellent by anyone's standards. This would put us at 6-4 after ten games and certainly in the playoff mix. Looking at the Steelers schedule during the same span, their next four games include hosting the Giants, Colts and Chargers, while going on the road to the Redskins (although not in that order). Those are all tough games, regardless of the home field advantage they enjoy. If they come out of that in good shape both physically and record-wise, then hats off to them and they deserve to be at the top of the league's power rankings. If not, then perhaps the door opens up for us and who knows whhat can happen? We've seen the Dolphins kick butt against both the Patriots and Chargers and then look putrid against the Ravens. Therefore, we will not concede anything until the season is over, right Ravens fans?

Let me hear you: "Will You Protect This House?"

But let's not get ahead of ourselves. We still have a game against a tough opponent this Sunday. Oakland will not lay down and believe their young QB JaMarcus Russell is the real deal. Combined with the top RB out of the 2008 draft, Darren McFadden, they have a powerful running game (along w/ Justin Fargas) and a pretty decent defense. However, along with the home field advantage and a renewed sense of confidence over this past weeend's resounding road victory as an underdog, the Ravens are poised to go over .500 and head into the second half of their schedule on another two game winning streak.

"We Will, We Will!"