The Baltimore Ravens have posted an o-for the last five times they've taken on the Indianapolis Colts, including the 44-20 smackdown they absorbed last year in front of their home fans. The team was decimated with injuries and had just come off an emotional and upsetting loss to the undefeated New England Patriots only six days earlier. This time, they're coming off two emotional and upsetting losses, including one in front of their home town fans. Huh, sounds similar? I think not.

There is a huge difference between the current status of the two teams from last season to now. Both teams are playing .500 ball at 2-2, and while the Ravens are just 6 points away from being 4-0, the Colts were just four minutes away from being 1-3. However, that is the difference between good teams and not-so-good ones. The good teams find a way to pull games out at the end, while the not-so-good ones find ways to lose them. The Ravens seem to find a new and exciting way to "snatch defeat from the jaws of victory" almost every week lately, and until they find a way to win those close games against good teams, they will remain in the not-so-good category. In order to be mentioned among the league's elite, you have to win the close games and beat teams that supposedly are thought to be better than you. The Ravens have done neither while the Colts have floundered, but still showed signs of resurging to the upper echelon of the AFC.

In order for Baltimore to gain a foothold in the division, they will need to win these games and it all starts today in Indianapolis. Remember that the second half of the Ravens schedule includes all four NFC East teams, which is easily the toughest division in football. If we can't take care of business and sweep the next three games (Indy, Miami, Oakland), we could be in danger of being swept by that tough division and once again face the prospects of a losing season and high draft pick. After the encouraging beginning of the season, that would be a major disappointment to the team and its fans. Combined with the tougher schedule the Steelers have remaining, the possibilities of the Ravens making the postseason existed, but are much more cloudy after the previous two demoralizing last minute defeats in games the Ravens had the upper hand.

In order for the Ravens to win at Indy today, the obvious jumps out at everyone. They must pound the ball up the middle in the running game behind their two backs, Willis McGahee and Le'Ron McClain. Combined with the lead blocking of Lorenzo Neal, the Ravens must wear down the Colts front four and slow down their pass rush whenever Joe Flacco is required to drop back to pass. If he has time to find the open receivers, then the combination of the running game and efficient passing can put the Ravens in position to win. The Colts are missing their best defensive player, Bob Sanders and they have proven to be a much different team without him in the lineup. They are also missing other starters in their secondary and have not been good at stopping the run. The Ravens' past two opponents have been in the top of the league in defense while the Colts are ranked at the bottom. If they can move the ball, they will certainly be in this game until the end.

However and this is a huge "however." If the Ravens defense that gave up two long scoring drives to the Titans in the fourth quarter is the one that shows up in Indy today, there's no way we can win a shootout with Manning and his cohorts. With exactly zero sacks in the past six quarters, the pass rush will have to get more creative and find a way to hurry Manning, who will torture us if he gets any time to find his second and third reads. If he has watched any tape of the Ravens (gee, you thunk!?), he sees our weakness of covering the underneath slants of the tight ends and running backs. This could lead to huge days for Dallas Clark and Joseph Addai (at least Addai's on my fantasy team!). Rex Ryan has to come up with a scheme to take that away and put the pressure on Manning to throw the ball before he wants to and lead to turnovers we will need to slow the Colts down and own the time of possession competition.

Can we do all of this and come out with a road win? Just like the Monday Night Football game in Pittsburgh, while I thought we could win the game, I said there were just too many things that had to go our way for us to come away with a road victory. Unfortunately, I feel the same way today, as we have to bank on our rushing attack being huge, Flacco having time to throw and not make mistakes, our pass rush harries Manning and we get turnovers. On top of all of this is two other very important things, both of which have not happened when the chances came this season. One is that Matt Stover has to get on track in accuracy and distance, as he hasn't hit a field goal over 40 yards all season, and secondly, head coach John Harbaugh has to make all the right moves, rookie label or not.

I just don't see it, although I'd love to be wrong and have all you who pick the Ravens today to spring the upset post just that and come back to rub it in. It'll feel great!

Colts:  23-13

If the Baltimore Ravens couldn't hold leads late in the games against the past two teams, both who have had offensive issues, how in the world do they expect to hold one, much less even get one, when they visit the Indianapolis Colts this weekend? The Ravens had a ten point lead into the second half against the Steelers two weeks ago, and were all over the back of QB Ben Roethlisberger, who had a suspect offensive line and injured throwing shoulder and hand. Yet, they let them back into the game and couldn't get close to him late in the game and into the overtime period when he patiently drove them down the field for the game winning field goal. Last week, they had Tennessee on the ropes with a seven point lead and were driving for a field goal that might have put the game out of reach or at the very least sent it to OT, but couldn't get the last 5-10 yards to get into field goal range. The Ravens couldn't sack Titans QB Kerry Collins even once and gave him too much time to get his act together and improve on his horrible first half by carving up the Ravens defense with short, accurate underneath passes that underscored our defense's glaring weakness.

If we are having obvious problems getting to the QB (zero sacks last six quarters), any QB will be able to pick us apart regardless if C-Mac and Ed Reed are healthy and looking for the interception. Our linebackers are aces against the run, but cannot seem to cover the tight ends and RB's out of the backfield running those short underneath crossing patterns. Opponents wait to see which LB is rushing the passer and then flood that side of the zone with the underneath routes. Someone is bound to be open and our LB's just can't catch them. Collins did that to perfection on those final two drives and virtually ignored his wideouts once he realized what was available.

One can only imagine what the Colts' Peyton Manning will do if he sees this happening again Sunday afternoon. Tight end Dallas Clark and RB Joseph Addai figure to have field days against us (at least I have Addai on my fantasy team), as both can outrun any of our LB's in the open field. The only reason we have ever been able to play the Colts close is that our scheming and changing defense has been able to play a great chess match with Manning. If he is able to figure us out and win that battle, we have no chance of keeping up offensively.

Speaking of the offense, while it may be improving and has nowhere to go but up, we have relied way too heavily on the notion to get get us into field goal position and let placekicker Matt Stover put the vast majority of points on the board. However, Stover has been anything but automatic this season, as he has been below average so far, hitting only four of seven attempts, including none of three from beyond the forty yard line. Last week he missed a 45 yard attempt that would have given us that ten point lead I spoke about earlier. According to Rototimes, he is only 26 of 38 from 40+ yards since 2004, including only one 50+ yarder during that same stretch. Now I understand that Stover is one of the most valuable Ravens since they came to town and deserves to be in our Ring of Honor upon retirement, but right now it also appears that he deserves to be in the unemployment line. The combination of his inaccuracy and weak leg has hurt us on the obvious field goals, but also on his inability to pin the opponents back on kickoffs, as he consistently only kicks off to the 10 yard line and rarely gets touchbacks. At some point, hopefully sooner than later, the Ravens need to bring in younger, stronger legs to, at the very least, combine with Stover to hit the longer kicks as well as the gimme's, as most any other kicker in the league can seem to do, and take over the kickoff duties asap.

So therein lies my big concern. If we have problems stopping the pass, and cannot put points on the scoreboard through Matt Stover, then the rest of our team's strong points may not matter, as the Colts will put more than enough points on the board to make it way too hard for us to keep up with.

More to follow the rest of the week. Your thoughts?

Other than last year's blowout in Baltimore, this game is usually an interesting and competitive game between these two teams. Last year, the Ravens were blown out, again on national TV no less, by the Colts a week after taking the New England Patriots to the brink on their way to their undefeated regular season. Perhaps they shot their wad against the Pats and were so let down after that emotionally deflating last few minutes that they had nothing left in the tank. They played as poorly as they did the majority of the season, with the loss to the Pats as their brightest point of a horribly disappointing year.

While the Ravens are on their way back to repectability and should be much more competitive this year, the Colts may actually be on a downward trend. This is not saying that Indy is prime for the picking, especially on the road for the Ravens. However, Peyton Manning and company seem to have lost the luster that made them a perrennial Super Bowl selection for many years. The team has been more prone to injuries to their veterans, such as Marvin Harrison and no longer are even a lock to even win their own division due to the rise of the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Don't worry, Colts fans. The horseshoe will bring you good luck at least in week 6 against the traveling Ravens. While I always love to see how the Ravens stack up against the best offenses in the league, beating the Colts in their home crib should be way too much of a challenge for even Ray Lewis to overcome. The Colts will still put points on the board, as Reggie Wayne may now be a better receiver than the aging and injury prone Harrison, and even one of the best in the entire league. Dallas Clark is almost more of a wide receiver than tight end and is a nightmare for any nickel back or safety to cover in the open field. RB Joseph Addai is multi-talented and I still haven't even mentioned Peyton Manning. Manning is still one of the top two or three QB's in the league and will not bend or break under the pressure, at least against the Ravens. He can and will put points on the board and is a threat to do so from anywhere on the field. This is unfortunately something the Ravens just have not been able to do, even in the Red Zone! Due to the huge differences in the two offenses, I see no way to reasonably predict a Ravens victory.

The Colts defense is vastly underrated due to their high profile offense. However, they are filled with playmakers, including perhaps the most dominating player in tiny safety Bob Sanders. His presence on the field makes all the difference to the success of the Indy defense. Based on that, the gap between the teams' defenses is much less than the gap between the offenses. Therein lies the main reason that the Colts will defeat the Ravens in week 6. The Ravens will just not be able to slow down the Colts' offense while the Baltimore offense will not put enough points on the board to give us a chance at an upset.

Colts: 27  Ravens: 13

Season Record:  3-3