It is often said that there is no greater pain in professional sports than coming in second. I write with nervous trepidation because I'm legitimately nervous about this game. This team brims with the confidence and swagger of a championship team. But objectively I don't know how to stop the pistol QB read play. But then I remind myself that this team has beaten Manning and Brady on the road. This team is tough. Folks keep telling me that the hot team wins the Superbowl, or the team with momentum wins the Superbowl.
You know what?
If you win the play offs you are the hot team and you have momentum. So in essences those ideas are self fulfilling. Maybe it's because I'm a Terp fan and I'm used to expecting the worse. (We started a linebacker at Quarterback for 4 games this year) But I'm terrified. I will not be able to enjoy this game. It's not an enjoyable experience. I'd rather spend the 4 hours at the dentist.
A few folks have hit me up on twitter asking which way I'm going to bet this game. And there are two lines of thought that come to mind. Bet against the Ravens, and then be happily disappointed. And I say you can't do that. You have to go with the other line of thought that is, objectively try to make money.
To recap after last week I went 2-0 on picks and I even said pick up the Ravens money line for half a unit. and then if you paid attention I said take the over on the Pro-bowl. So we're up to $750 dollars (assuming 100 dollar units).
Currently Baltimore vs San Fran (-3.5) the over under is 47.5 and the money lines are +140/-160
If you're looking for analysis of the Xs and Os or the Jims and Joes. Find somebody else. Here's why you're taking the Ravens +3.5
1) You're a Ravens fan
2) 3.5 is one of those magic numbers that Vegas hates to give out because it's a key number. So go ahead and take the three points and the hook.
And since I've already made you $750 on the playoffs. Go ahead and take the over. 47.5 points means that Vegas doesn't think these teams will both get to 24 points. I think that's way too low.
Piece of advice, stay away from prop bets that don't involve Henry Hynoski.
See y'all next year.