28 Jan 2001: (FILE PHOTO) A general view of the Lombardi Trophy being held aloft before the Super Bowl XXXV Game between the New York Giants and Baltimore Ravens at the Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. The Ravens defeated the Giants 34-7. The New York Giants are scheduled to play the New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLVI at Lucas Oil Stadium February 5, 2012 in Indianapolis, Indiana. The two teams last met in the Super Bowl in 2008, where the Giants defeated the Patriots to win Super Bowl XLII. (Mandatory Credit: Andy Lyons/Allsport)
Taking a look at the odds of winning the Super Bowl from SportsOddsHistory.com, one will see that the pre-season favorite rarely wins the Lombardi Trophy. Only once in the past 12 years has the pre-season favorite ended up as Super Bowl Champs and only twice have teams with less than ten-to-one odds ended up on top.
While the Baltimore Ravens Super Bowl 35 winning year was outside of the past twelve years, they won the title after making the playoffs from the Wild Card position and certainly were nowhere near favorites, as I recall they were something like 60-1 odds back at the beginning of the 2000 NFL season as I was in Las Vegas during the summer and regret not putting the house on the home team.
This year's favorites are the Green Bay Packers (+600) followed by the New England Patriots (+700). These two teams are the only ones under the ten-to-one mark, meaning that the trend is that one of the other 30 teams in the league will end up celebrating next February, including hopefully the Ravens, who come in as the fifth best option (+1400).