Analyzing The Ravens 2011 Passing Game
The 2011 Baltimore Raven's passing offense will look decidedly different than the 2010 variety. Gone are productive veterans like Derrick Mason, Todd Heap, and LeRon McClain. Gone are stopgap players like T.J. Houshmandazeh and Donte Stallworth. Instead the offense will prominently feature talented young tight ends and wide receivers like Ed Dickson, Dennis Pitta, Torrey Smith, David Reed, Tandon Doss and others. Assuming the Ravens don't make another move for a receiver before the start of the season, one serious question fans and team personnel should be asking is "where will the passing production come from in 2011?"
While it is true that Joe Flacco will still be under center, every pass has two parts, and for Joe to complete passes someone must be there to catch the ball. In 2010, the Ravens were ranked 20th in the NFL in passing yards per game. Fans may argue about the importance of the passing game vs. the run, but unfortunately the Ravens ranked 22nd in total yards per game and 16th in total points per game. Regardless of how you expect the team to perform as a whole in 2011, improving on these middle-of-the-pack numbers would be provide a significant boost to the team's chances come January. Here is a list of who caught passes for the Ravens in 2010:
| Player | Rec | Yds | Yds/Rec | Long | TD |
| Anquan Boldin | 64 | 837 | 13.1 | 61 | 7 |
| Ray Rice | 63 | 556 | 8.8 | 34 | 1 |
| Derrick Mason | 61 | 802 | 13.1 | 42 | 7 |
| Todd Heap | 40 | 599 | 15.0 | 65 | 5 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 30 | 398 | 13.3 | 56 | 3 |
| Le'Ron McClain | 21 | 134 | 6.4 | 19 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 14 | 55 | 3.9 | 32 | 1 |
| Ed Dickson | 11 | 152 | 13.8 | 58 | 1 |
| Donte' Stallworth | 2 | 82 | 41.0 | 67 | 0 |
| Cary Williams | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 13 | 0 |
| Dennis Pitta | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Total | 308 | 3629 | 11.8 | 25 |
With several of these producers leaving for other squads this offseason, someone will have to step in and provide opportunities for Flacco to throw the ball to. At this point, it's impossible to say who or to what extent the young receivers will play a role in the 2011 passing attack. However, it can't hurt to make some guesses. In the last 3 years, only 3 rookies have surpassed 800 receiving yards: Mike Williams (2010), Eddie Royal (2008), and DeSean Jackson (2008). None have surpassed 1,000 yards in their rookie campaigns. Anticipating such a year from anyone currently on the Raven's roster would be foolish.
I can imagine a scenario where several players could get chances to perform at WR opposite Anquan Boldin. T. Smith, D. Reed, Doss, and others are likely to have opportunities to make plays this year. However, I see no reason to expect any of them to approach even 800 yards this season. As for TE, I think a realistic expectation is for the dual threat of Dickson and Pitta to approximately equal the TE production gained from Todd Heap last year. While it is possible they could outperform Heap, expecting this might be a bit unreasonable. While obviously things could turn out many different ways, here is what I consider a reasonable expectation for the players involved in the passing game for 2011:
| Player | Rec | Yds | Yds/Rec | Long | TD |
| Anquan Boldin | 75 | 1000 | 13.3 | 7 | |
| Ray Rice | 70 | 600 | 8.6 | 3 | |
| Ed Dickson | 35 | 500 | 14.3 | 3 | |
| Torrey Smith | 30 | 550 | 18.3 | 4 | |
| David Reed | 25 | 350 | 14.0 | 1 | |
| Dennis Pitta | 20 | 250 | 12.5 | 2 | |
| Vonta Leach | 15 | 100 | 6.7 | 3 | |
| Tandon Doss | 10 | 125 | 12.5 | 1 | |
| James Hardy | 4 | 60 | 15.0 | 0 | |
| Other | 3 | 30 | 10.0 | 0 | |
| Total | 287 | 3565 | 12.4 | 24 |
Without a proven #2 option at WR, I expect Boldin to receive more attention from opposing DBs. I imagine his looks will improve which will increase his numbers slightly, but I wouldn't anticipate a breakout performance. Rice will still get his chances as well, and I consider it likely that he will be utilized a little more than last year. Again, nothing significantly different about his numbers.
What is frightening is that beyond the two veteran standouts, production in the passing game drops off significantly from last season. The hypothetical totals are actually worse than in 2010. If this is a reasonable estimate of our passing production in 2011, this team will struggle to score points, and will have trouble making a deep run in the playoffs unless the defense plays similarly to its 2000 form. In the end, one of our young players will need to step up and perform at an unexpected level if this team wishes to hold its own on offense in 2011.
The opinions posted here are those of the administrator of this blog and his loyal readers. They are in no way official comments from the team, and should not be misconstued as such, even though he thinks he could do just as well or even a better job!
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Numbers are tricky things...
Gone are productive veterans like Derrick Mason, Todd Heap, and LaRon McClain.
La’Ron McClain was a productive member of the passing offense? And why do you only give Leech 15 throws when McClain got over 20?
How do come up with a combined Dickson/Pitta only equaling Heap’s total from last year? If you take Dickson’s figure from above (11/152) and give him as many throws as Heap received last year (41/599), he beats Heap all by himself. So you’re saying Pitta won’t be a factor at all.
To make these kinds of predictions you have to assume at least equivalent stats. Also, the thrown to numbers could skew your predictions a very different way. I’d be willing to guess in the case of Heap v. Dickson, that 11 was almost all the passes that came his way, while with Heap, I think 41 might be as little as half. Which make Dickson’s number a lot more impressive.
"Cam Cameron…even his parents where obvious and repetitive." - raven
La’Ron McClain was a productive member of the passing offense? And why do you only give Leech 15 throws when McClain got over 20?
Leach’s number was some combination of McClain’s role and Leach’s numbers from previous seasons. It’s only a guess, and I could see him catching as many as 25 or as few as 5 depending on how things go.
How do come up with a combined Dickson/Pitta only equaling Heap’s total from last year?
If you look at it, I have Dickson/Pitta being close to the same as Heap/Dickson from last year. I think it’s a reasonable guess. If Dickson’s catch % was higher last year, don’t expect that to stay true. Now that he’s the #1, he’s going to see more throws, and not always be as open in those situations. I would expect his catch % to come down a little.
by onethingiknow on Aug 7, 2011 10:04 PM EDT up reply actions
But, you see, this is my problem with your methodology. You’re just making guesses (as all predictions are, granted) but they’re not based on an apples to apples comparison. You can’t really factor Leach’s potential number of catches based on his figures from previous teams. Those teams are not the Ravens and their plays and schemes are completely different. You have to compare his potential catches against what a FB for THIS team has caught in the past. The number of catches of McClain is indicative of how often and when a FB gets a pass thrown his way on the Ravens. As you say, he could be far to either side of 21, but 21 is what the most recent FB on the Ravens did in their most recent season – the most accurate numbers you can use as a basis.
And with the Dickson/Pitta/Heap comparison, you really need to factor in the number of throws to them. You say you’d expect Dickson’s catch % to come down, but we don’t know what his pass % is. His percentage would be the number of passes he actually caught divided by the number of attempts to him.
After a little research, as it turns out, Heap’s numbers for last year were 40/63 for a 63.5% catch rating, while Dickson was 11/23 for a 47.8% rating. Based on that, and unless his reception rate improves, he’d probably only catch less than half the passes that came Heap’s way – say 30 and with a 13.8 yards/catch avg., he may only see a little over 400 yards.
"Cam Cameron…even his parents where obvious and repetitive." - raven
by GrumpyOldBird on Aug 7, 2011 10:44 PM EDT up reply actions
You can’t really factor Leach’s potential number of catches based on his figures from previous teams. Those teams are not the Ravens and their plays and schemes are completely different.
Just because FBs on the Ravens have had a certain number of pass catches doesn’t mean the next guy will. Leach has had exactly 3 carries in his career. McClain had 74 in the last 2 years, and even Lorenzo Neal had 12 in 2008. Sure Leach might get a few carries, but you have to expect they will take his experience and skills into consideration when deciding how often to give him the ball. I think putting my guess somewhere between Leach and McClain’s 2010 numbers is solid.
You say you’d expect Dickson’s catch % to come down, but we don’t know what his pass % is. His percentage would be the number of passes he actually caught divided by the number of attempts to him.
Well for one, a players catch % has to do with their talent as well as their situation. A deep threat may have a low % when his QB is inaccurate, whereas a guy catching 2 yard screens all day might have a high %. It’s about how they are used, which honestly, I’m not totally versed in how Dickson was used last year. I didn’t see him on the field all that much. If it differed significantly from how Heap was used (possibly how we can expect Dickson to be used this year), his catch % numbers might change greatly.
My hope is that between our two TEs, we can see similar results from the position as last year. Unfortunately, we really can’t tell until the season gets underway.
Don't be shocked that people die
Be surprised you're still alive
by onethingiknow on Aug 7, 2011 11:24 PM EDT up reply actions
With a soon to be much upgraded running game, I wouldn’t mind those numbers from Joe at all. We could get away with winning the division with those types of numbers as long as the interception totals stay fairly low (Joe has never had a problem with that area anyway).
Those numbers from Torrey and the 2 TE’s would be great for this year. 18.3 ypc from Torrey would put him up there as one of the best deep threats in the league, which I fully expect him to be.
"'If there isn't a bone sticking out of my leg, I'm playing" - Marshall Yanda
If it works, it works...
Change in scheme aside, it’s still a step backwards for the passing game. If it’s due to fewer passing attempts and more runs, that’s great. I just hope it’s enough to keep opposing defenses honest. Certainly if the running game and defense are firing on all cylinders the passing attack won’t need to do as much.
As for Torrey, I expect him to show some very real talent this year, I just think it will be in a limited role/limited value situation.
by onethingiknow on Aug 7, 2011 10:09 PM EDT up reply actions
You can’t categorically include that we’ve stepped backwards passing wise. Remember that we’ve dumped vets with little to no YAC capability for young athletes with true explosiveness. Add to that a re-doubled run effort that will help the playfake and you may see a passing attack with slightly fewer yards but improved efficiency.
In all reality, none of us can predict this though. That is more the case this year than in any other in recent memory.
"Airborne, do not look at the ground. I promise you, it will be there. Unless the tectonic plates shift, and a chasm opens up on the drop zone, in which case we will surely let you know."
by jackmca on Aug 8, 2011 7:39 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
Categorically “conclude” I meant to say in that first sentence
"Airborne, do not look at the ground. I promise you, it will be there. Unless the tectonic plates shift, and a chasm opens up on the drop zone, in which case we will surely let you know."
by jackmca on Aug 8, 2011 7:40 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
+1
None of us will really know what we have until a few games into the season.
On Ed Reed:
"I’ve told him to his face many times, ‘You’re the greatest safety ever to play the game,’"
"We all learn from each other, but we all learn most from him."
- Troy Polamalu
My issue is that you took last years numbers
and then made up a bunch of numbers and then talked about how scary the drop off is. I understand making a prediction but then analyzing your own prediction and saying see based on these numbers we took a step backward makes no sense.
I do not know much about our rookies any analysis on what type of games they bring to the table?
Doss is not overly fast, but decent speed. Great route runner with exceptional hands (even though I heard he struggled a bit on saturday), good size at around 6’2 and knows how to turn up the field quickly to get some YAC. Comparable to a younger Housh with better YAC IMO. Torrey is a physical freak. Really fast and I believe has 40’’ vertical. There were question concerning his route running coming out and while it still needs work I think he has shown improvement. I don’t think we will be using him to run a whole lot of precise routes anyways. I think he compares to another guy we had last year in Stallworth. Not the Stallworth we seen the last few years, but the younger one before the injuries when he showed a ton of promise. A big play guy who’s a threat to run by you.
On Ed Reed:
"I’ve told him to his face many times, ‘You’re the greatest safety ever to play the game,’"
"We all learn from each other, but we all learn most from him."
- Troy Polamalu
Then can everyone stop saying we are better than last year? Can everyone maybe stop jumping on people that might feel that we aren’t as good as last year and might be a little frustrated by that? A few people seem to be out to attack anyone that feels we aren’t as good as last year like we aren’t true fans for having an opinion that can’t be known until week 17.
by Mstevens_Design on Aug 8, 2011 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions
I am aware that my estimates could be wildly off. Anyone making claims of any kind at this point must confess that. The point is that I think these numbers are reasonable guesses for our player’s production next year. Everyone is free to disagree with me on that point, but based on my guesses, we appear to be staying about the same or taking a step back in the passing game. Remember that our passing attack wasn’t prolific last year either. Maybe we step back because the run improves, maybe we become more efficient in the passing game. In either case, wonderful. I just don’t see the personnel on the roster right now to make me believe we can be more efficient, and I see teams stacking up against the run until someone in the passing game forces them to play honest. Until I see otherwise (on the field in games), I think the offense (from a balance perspective) is weaker than last year. I sincerely hope I’m wrong and our guys become instant superstars. We’ll see.
Don't be shocked that people die
Be surprised you're still alive
by onethingiknow on Aug 8, 2011 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions
Doss will have more catches than reed…simply because reed is always hurt, I don’t think he is ready for a bigger role. IMO, Flacco has progressed a little more that he won’t be relying on the dump offs as much.
by Raven_all_day on Aug 7, 2011 8:19 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I think Doss will have a bigger impact as well. He has looked solid and as the WR’s stand right now I see Doss pulling in more yards than that.
On Ed Reed:
"I’ve told him to his face many times, ‘You’re the greatest safety ever to play the game,’"
"We all learn from each other, but we all learn most from him."
- Troy Polamalu
Dumpoffs have more to do with a harebrained O scheme than Joe's ability
send two possession receivers deep and keep the TE home to block… Rice stays home to counter a blitz that doesn’t come then sqirts into the flat for the dumpoff… sound familiar?
Joe has all the ability in the world… let him run the O…play shotgun…and hurry up…
2cents
i couldnt agree more
I mean I probably could if I tried but that would be awkward.
"Airborne, do not look at the ground. I promise you, it will be there. Unless the tectonic plates shift, and a chasm opens up on the drop zone, in which case we will surely let you know."
A lot of it also is routes that take a long time to develop with a line that can’t hold their blocks… not funcional.
"Airborne, do not look at the ground. I promise you, it will be there. Unless the tectonic plates shift, and a chasm opens up on the drop zone, in which case we will surely let you know."
And with WR’s who aren’t speed demons.
On Ed Reed:
"I’ve told him to his face many times, ‘You’re the greatest safety ever to play the game,’"
"We all learn from each other, but we all learn most from him."
- Troy Polamalu
man we really need to sign Randy Moss or Oprah right about now I fear the worst for our wideouts with out a proven veteran. oh well :) lol
What happens to a dream deferred?
Does it dry up
Like a raisin in the sun?
Or fester like a sore--
And then run?
Does it stink like rotten meat?
Or crust and sugar over--
like a syrupy sweet?
Maybe it just sags
like a heavy load.
Or does it explode?-langton Hughes
yeah I agree with Jimmy and Cary shutting down the other teams WR’s, they’ll make anybody rushing the QB look good - Jaz
Oprah'd probably ask less money than Moss or TO
"Cam Cameron…even his parents where obvious and repetitive." - raven
by GrumpyOldBird on Aug 7, 2011 8:36 PM EDT up reply actions
well than oprah needs to be a ravens like right now lol
What happens to a dream deferred?
Does it dry up
Like a raisin in the sun?
Or fester like a sore--
And then run?
Does it stink like rotten meat?
Or crust and sugar over--
like a syrupy sweet?
Maybe it just sags
like a heavy load.
Or does it explode?-langton Hughes
yeah I agree with Jimmy and Cary shutting down the other teams WR’s, they’ll make anybody rushing the QB look good - Jaz
That'll make the equipment manager happy
Cody won’t be the only one he has to sew two uniforms together to fit.
"Cam Cameron…even his parents where obvious and repetitive." - raven
by GrumpyOldBird on Aug 7, 2011 9:14 PM EDT up reply actions
lol yeah
What happens to a dream deferred?
Does it dry up
Like a raisin in the sun?
Or fester like a sore--
And then run?
Does it stink like rotten meat?
Or crust and sugar over--
like a syrupy sweet?
Maybe it just sags
like a heavy load.
Or does it explode?-langton Hughes
yeah I agree with Jimmy and Cary shutting down the other teams WR’s, they’ll make anybody rushing the QB look good - Jaz
Interesting stuff
Do you guys realize that Cary Williams caught 100% of the balls thrown his way last year? I’m telling you, there’s our #2 WR right there.
"I hate your sig…" -Mr MaLoR
by StuckInUtah on Aug 8, 2011 12:33 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I think Torrey Smith should be a little mroe up there.
Especially if Ozzie doesn’t grab another WR, and Boldin possibly being double-coveraged (although we know Boldin can get through that), T.Smith might be a legit option.
If Charlie Sheen played for the Leafs, the Leafs would be #winning. If LeBron James played for the Cavs, oh wait, he already did that.
I like it. I would prefer him over any other back on the market right now. Great move.
On Ed Reed:
"I’ve told him to his face many times, ‘You’re the greatest safety ever to play the game,’"
"We all learn from each other, but we all learn most from him."
- Troy Polamalu
I’m sure Bruce approves, given his “dreads theory” and all.
"I hate your sig…" -Mr MaLoR
by StuckInUtah on Aug 8, 2011 1:21 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
His dreads have been gone for a while.
"'If there isn't a bone sticking out of my leg, I'm playing" - Marshall Yanda
by Mr MaLoR on Aug 8, 2011 4:34 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Good to hear, we’ll compliment Rice nicely. Hopefully he’s off the pipe though lol
"I hate your sig…" -Mr MaLoR
by StuckInUtah on Aug 8, 2011 1:19 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
*he’ll
"I hate your sig…" -Mr MaLoR
by StuckInUtah on Aug 8, 2011 1:20 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
wow they gave Ricky Williams a two year deal i understand one year but two years hmmmmmmm?
What happens to a dream deferred?
Does it dry up
Like a raisin in the sun?
Or fester like a sore--
And then run?
Does it stink like rotten meat?
Or crust and sugar over--
like a syrupy sweet?
Maybe it just sags
like a heavy load.
Or does it explode?-langton Hughes
yeah I agree with Jimmy and Cary shutting down the other teams WR’s, they’ll make anybody rushing the QB look good - Jaz
Reefer Madness?
"I hate your sig…" -Mr MaLoR
by StuckInUtah on Aug 8, 2011 1:26 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Good article...keep them coming
and if you’re a critic, write your own and “wow” us
+1
We have someone to throw the playaction to now.
by Raven_all_day on Aug 8, 2011 9:14 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Yeah
that could really work well with Rice and Rickey along with Leach leading the way. We’ll keep teams honest at the least on that front.
I really hope Torrey works out for us because his skills could really take us over that hump and be amazing on play action
by Mstevens_Design on Aug 8, 2011 11:59 PM EDT up reply actions
And that he has the ability to turn a slant into a 50 yard td.
by Raven_all_day on Aug 9, 2011 8:40 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Well I don’t know him all that well, but he seems like he has straight line speed. If he can juke as well, then hells yeah!
by Mstevens_Design on Aug 9, 2011 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
He can make people look stupid.
We’re finally going to see receivers who can get seperation! BITCHEN!
No more catch, turn, dive. 2 yac.
The writer formerly known as This White Man Can Jump; Powah Stached; Bear Killer; Da Dude; The Other Bambino; TJ Dropped The Season; Harbaugh Is My Co-Pilot; Billick's Alter Ego; Mr. Poopy Pants.
I’m all for that brother! I’d like to see a TE be able to catch the ball and not fall over when someone looks too hard at him
by Mstevens_Design on Aug 9, 2011 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions
And that he has the ability to turn a slant into a 50 yard td.
Slant? That word is not in Cam Cameron’s vocabulary
During the practice at the stadium, he was reportedly turning short passes into long gains. I’m excited for our young recievers.
by Raven_all_day on Aug 9, 2011 7:29 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
If we start using slants/the middle of the field in general
I will take back every bad word I have ever said about Cam Cameron.
if he wants to keep his job, he will slant
thank G-d for the lockout, Cam! Still employed!
I honestly believe that is the only reason he's still here
Worst coordinator in the league….he better make some changes this year.

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