PredictionMachine.com strives to be the most accurate and trusted source for predicting sports outcomes. The state-of-the-art, Prediction Machine, was built by Paul Bessire, a statistician and veteran sports writer, who offers his in-depth analysis and unique takes through his blog posts and game predictions.
In sports, matchups dictate outcomes. Instead of data mining to attempt to find historical trends that may lend some insight into future games - a common, yet misleading approach for many other predictive models - PredictionMachine.com's accuracy stems from the Predictalator (a fancy name for the Machine), which plays an upcoming game 50,000 times before it's actually played. The Predictalator has already played the 2011 NFL season 50,000 times before it's actually played. The Green Bay Packers repeat as Super Bowl champions, winning it all league-high 13.0% of the time. In the most likely Super Bowl, Green Bay defeats the San Diego Chargers 57.0% of the time and by an average score of 26-23. San Diego, the AFC's top-seed, wins the Super Bowl 10.5% of the time. The Philadelphia Eagles (10.3%), Pittsburgh Steelers (9.7%) and New England Patriots (9.4%) follow the Packers and Chargers in Super Bowl likelihood.
According to Prediction Machine, the Baltimore Ravens should win 13 games in the 2011 season. This may seem like a solid year, but the predictions have those three losses being to the Pittsburgh steelers (twice!) and also the San Diego Chargers. The Ravens have a 5% chance to win the Super Bowl and the most likely outcome is Green Bay beating San Diego 26-23 in the Super Bowl.