FanPost

The Temptation to Trade Down

The situation: the top of the draft is loaded with teams that have a big to desperate need for a new QB. 

The problems these teams face are twofold:

1) The lockout means both no free agency or trading to get on the market veteran QB's like Kolb, Bulger or Young and no draft day trades that involve current players to move up or down the draft. Yes, teams can wait till free agency eventually opens up again but you gotta think that by that point the price for a legit veteran QB will be even higher than they are now.  

2) There are thought to be only two high first round QB's truly worth the investment: Newton and Gabbert.  (Not that I would draft either...)

So several teams are gonna make their first round picks not filling a critical need on their team.  They will be desperate to reach for a QB in round 2. The chance that there will be several bidding wars for teams hoping to move back into the end of the first round is close to 100%. Ozzie and Co. without a doubt will be fielding offers for teams wanting to trade up to #26. 

First, who are these teams? A casual scan sees Carolina, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Arizona, San Francisco, Tennessee, Washington, Minnesota, and Miami all looking to pick a QB and only two of those will get Gabbert or Newton. Seattle later on might also be QB shopping. Let's say Carolina takes one since they have no 2nd round pick.  They know all decent QB's will be gone by round 3.  Let's say Cincy takes the other. That leaves Buffalo, Arizona, San Francisco, Tennessee, Washington, Minnesota, and Miami.

Now let's say one of Minnesota, Washington, Miami or Seattle, further down the draft order, reaches for Jake Locker. That leaves just Ponder, Mallet, and maybe Stanzi, Dalton, and possibly Kapernick remaining for the seven remaining QB-needy teams. Now some of these QB's are thought of more highly than others. And just as obviously the QB teams lower on the draft pecking order like Minnesota or Washington will have to be thinking that they need to leapfrog several other teams to get the QB they want. That means pick #26 will be in play.

So if you are Ozzie, what do you demand in trade?  Let's hear some scenarios, including specific picks you would demand of any of the specific teams! To help you all out, here are the picks these teams have in the draft starting with their 2nd round picks. Below the first number is the draft round and the second number is the pick in that round:

Buffalo: 2.2, 3.4, 4.3, 4.25, 5.2, 6.4, 7.3,

Cincinnati: 2.3, 3.2, 4.4, 5.3, 6.2, 7.4

Arizona: 2.6, 3.5, 4.6, 5.5, 6.6, 6.21

San Francisco: 2.13, 3.12, 4.11, 4.18, 5.10, 6.9, 6.25, 7.7, 7.8

Tennessee: 2.17, 3.13, 4.12, 5.11, 6.10, 7.9

Washington: 2.9, 5.13, 5.24, 6.12, 7.11

Minnesota: 2.11, 4.9, 5.8, 5.19, 6.7, 7.13

Miami: 3.15, 4.14, 5.15, 6.14, 7.15, 7.16

Of course any trades could well be more complicated that just a trade between the Ravens and another team. Like when we got Flacco which took two trades to position ourselves, we and/or another team might trade multiple times so by the time we do pick the pick(s) might be different from any of the picks listed here. 

Honestly IMO the pickings from these teams are not all that attractive. None of them have multiple 2nd or 3rd round picks. Do you demand a 1st rounder from the '12 draft besides anything from this draft? 

The opinions posted here are those of the administrator of this blog and his loyal readers. They are in no way official comments from the team, and should not be misconstued as such, even though he thinks he could do just as well or even a better job!

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