(Updated) Playoff Scenario
by AV23 on Dec 12, 2011 2:48 PM EST
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PrintThere has been a ton of confusion from fans, players, media, and well, everybody as far as the scenarios.Obviously the simplest way would be NE or HOU to lose so we get the #1 or #2 seed locked if we win out. However, if there is a 3 way tie then it gets a little confusing, so I'm going to do my best to clear this up for everybody. These are the rules in order according to NFL.com. These are the wild card tie breakers and these are the same tie breakers applied to a three team tie who are in different divisions.
1.
Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
None of us are in the same division, so onto the next one.
2.
2.Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
This one is ruled out because we haven't played the pats and they haven't played the texans.
3.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference
If we all win out we would all finish with a 10-2 conference record so again that is thrown out.
4.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
Because there is a minimum of four games and all 3 teams have to face the same opponents this one gets thrown out as well.
5.
Strength of victory.
I was misinformed on this previously and strength of victory is the combined record of teams you have beaten. Pats .418 Texans .403 Ravens .519
Strength of schedule.
More than likely rule 5 would decide it, but just thought I would throw out the next one just to let you guys now. As mentioned, the easiest way to get a first round bye is for Hou or NE to lose a game and we win out.
Thanks OC52 for clearing this up. This is the updated picture and as you can see the Ravens strength of victory is much higher than Texans and Pats. Again sorry for the confustion so if we win out we will be the #1 seed
Final schedules
Bal: SD (6-7), Cle (4-9), Cin (7-9)
NE: Den (8-5), Mia (4-9), Buff (5-8)
Hou: Car (4-9), Ind (0-12), Tenn (7-6)
The opinions posted here are those of the administrator of this blog and his loyal readers. They are in no way official comments from the team, and should not be misconstued as such, even though he thinks he could do just as well or even a better job!
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Great post!
Water covers 2/3 of the Earth's surface. Ed Reed covers the rest.
State your case, back it up with facts and reasonable opinions ...
Bruce Raffel
by Ampallang on Dec 12, 2011 3:00 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I said this on the other page where we're discussing this,
but strength of victory is not point differential.
You come at the king, you best not miss.
by organizedchaos52 on Dec 12, 2011 3:06 PM EST reply actions
As such,
there’s no reason to run up the score. Points (scored and allowed) don’t start to matter until after strength of schedule.
You come at the king, you best not miss.
by organizedchaos52 on Dec 12, 2011 3:06 PM EST up reply actions
you are correct sir I will adjust this.
On Ed Reed:
"I’ve told him to his face many times, ‘You’re the greatest safety ever to play the game,’"
"We all learn from each other, but we all learn most from him."
- Troy Polamalu
It's so damn confusing.
It is really too bad we couldn’t have pulled out one more of those games on the road (preferably in JAX). A one game lead would make me feel a lot better about all this.
You come at the king, you best not miss.
by organizedchaos52 on Dec 12, 2011 3:11 PM EST up reply actions
I give up, this is too confusing.
So basically we don’t get the #1 seed if we all just win out? We have to destroy our opponents?
Flacco has to trust his receivers to make catches, but shouldn’t throw towards coverage. He needs to attack deep more often, but shouldn’t hold onto the ball so long. He needs to show more awareness in the pocket and move to extend plays, but nothing good comes of him leaving the pocket. He should run with the ball if nobody’s open, but he definitely can’t run with the ball.
Flacco should have the awareness of Roethlisberger, the elusiveness of Vick, the control of the offense of Manning, the leadership of Brady, the accuracy of Brees, and the arm strength of … Flacco? - Ampallang
No, we do.
Any scenario where we tie for first, I think we win.
You come at the king, you best not miss.
by organizedchaos52 on Dec 12, 2011 3:22 PM EST up reply actions
We hold head-to-head tiebreakers
over Pitt and Hou (if it is only a 2 way tie), and we have common games against NE (again only important in a 2 way tie, thanks Pitt).
In a 3 way tie, we win due to SoV. A 4 way tie (involving Pitt) becomes a 3 way tie due to sweeping the Steelers.
If the Broncos end up tied for 1st, I will quit watching football (not serious, but if there is a 5 way tie at 11-5, that will be insane).
You come at the king, you best not miss.
by organizedchaos52 on Dec 12, 2011 3:24 PM EST up reply actions
In a 3 way tie, we win due to SoV.
But as of right now, we have a smaller SoV don’t we? According to this post it says so. (118 vs 122). So if our PD is smaller than NE and Houston (granted they finish 13-3) than we are the 3 seed? I hate numbers…
but if there is a 5 way tie at 11-5, that will be insane).
They will allow God to choose who gets the #1 seed, and we all know who he would choose…..
Flacco has to trust his receivers to make catches, but shouldn’t throw towards coverage. He needs to attack deep more often, but shouldn’t hold onto the ball so long. He needs to show more awareness in the pocket and move to extend plays, but nothing good comes of him leaving the pocket. He should run with the ball if nobody’s open, but he definitely can’t run with the ball.
Flacco should have the awareness of Roethlisberger, the elusiveness of Vick, the control of the offense of Manning, the leadership of Brady, the accuracy of Brees, and the arm strength of … Flacco? - Ampallang
To be honest,
if the Broncos come from 2-5 to a 5-way tie for 1st place at 11-5, fuck it, give them the 1 seed.
You come at the king, you best not miss.
by organizedchaos52 on Dec 12, 2011 3:47 PM EST up reply actions
I was in the process
of detailing out some of the possible scenarios in a FanPost, but it’s just too damn complicated right now. I’ve kept a draft, and I’ll see what I can do after next Sunday.
The important part: we own tiebreakers over any team we could tie with, except Tennessee and Denver.
You come at the king, you best not miss.
by organizedchaos52 on Dec 12, 2011 3:49 PM EST up reply actions
Tennessee can’t because Houston already clinched the division and I don’t think we go 1-2 the final three games.
On Ed Reed:
"I’ve told him to his face many times, ‘You’re the greatest safety ever to play the game,’"
"We all learn from each other, but we all learn most from him."
- Troy Polamalu
I'm ignoring no possibility.
We would have to lose out for the Titans to tie us since they’re 7-6.
You come at the king, you best not miss.
by organizedchaos52 on Dec 12, 2011 11:42 PM EST up reply actions
I'll also say
that I think the most likely scenario at this point is Pit/Bal taking the 5 seed and going to Denver, the Jets taking the 6 and going to New England, Houston taking the 1, and Bal/Pit taking the 2.
I expect Houston to go undefeated, I expect us to lose one, I expect Pitt maybe to lose one, I expect NE to lose Sunday. I also hope we win the division, so we can avoid Tebow (read: Denver’s defense) as long as possible.
You come at the king, you best not miss.
by organizedchaos52 on Dec 12, 2011 3:54 PM EST up reply actions
i disagree
i think we’re clicking right now (obviously two cupcake opponents in a row can create that impression but still) and we have every motivation to win out. This core group of players has never played a home playoff game and they want it bad. If we beat SD, we will win out, IMO. (Although we easily have the toughest remaining three games of any of the top AFC teams.)
TO BILL BRASKY!!!
I am worried about this game Sunday,
but also a bit worried about the Bengals. Honestly, as long as we don’t lose both we should be ok (go SF), and I’d love for us to win out, but Cincy’s season may be on the line. In any case, we’ll see. Start it off with a good win on Sunday, go from there.
If we can win the next two, and Pitt loses Monday like I hope they do, we’d clinch the division (and at least the 3 seed). A Broncos win Sunday would give us the bye following the win over the Browns. And when the Texans lose to the Titans to end the season, we’d be number 1 regardless of the result from the Bengals game. That’s the ideal scenario to me. Not sure it will happen, but I’m hoping.
You come at the king, you best not miss.
by organizedchaos52 on Dec 13, 2011 12:49 PM EST up reply actions
Havent checked Houston’s schedule but I doubt they get the one seed or win more than one playoff game. The Ravens are good and getting better. The #1 is theirs to lose and there is no more complete team in the league. The D intimidates and the O can go run heavy or bombs away on all of these weak secondaries.
by bshagagi on Dec 14, 2011 11:04 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Houston plays
Carolina, Indy, and Tennessee. Only Indy is on the road. I don’t see why you don’t think they can win in the playoffs. They’re a team built similar to ours, but slightly worse at both QB and on defense, I think. And they’ve been getting it done all season.
You come at the king, you best not miss.
by organizedchaos52 on Dec 14, 2011 1:13 PM EST up reply actions
but slightly worse at both QB and on defense
No, they are helluva worse at QB than we are. Yates might have been alright these last few weeks, but don’t expect it to continue. Their defense is very good, but we have seen first hand that it can be attacked.
Flacco has to trust his receivers to make catches, but shouldn’t throw towards coverage. He needs to attack deep more often, but shouldn’t hold onto the ball so long. He needs to show more awareness in the pocket and move to extend plays, but nothing good comes of him leaving the pocket. He should run with the ball if nobody’s open, but he definitely can’t run with the ball.
Flacco should have the awareness of Roethlisberger, the elusiveness of Vick, the control of the offense of Manning, the leadership of Brady, the accuracy of Brees, and the arm strength of … Flacco? - Ampallang
And Their
O-line is very much better than ours. Even though we beat them and our line has improved over the past few weeks, their O-Line is still playing way ahead of ours. No stats to back up that assertion, just the sniff test.
"A little learning is a dangerous thing; Drink deep, or taste not the Pierian spring."
"The difference between the right word and the almost right word is the difference between lightning and a lightning bug."
"God's whiskers! Your face is as hideous as the demon's in my storybook!"
"I never expected to see the day when girls would get sunburned in the places they do today."
"It's big for a reason."
For Pittsburgh fans, that's Pope, Twain, Rostand, Rogers and Megamind
They have struggled running the ball though against good defenses. I think I saw Arian is at around 3.6 YPC or something like that over the last three weeks.
On Ed Reed:
"I’ve told him to his face many times, ‘You’re the greatest safety ever to play the game,’"
"We all learn from each other, but we all learn most from him."
- Troy Polamalu
Okay
Maybe not as good as I thought…
Of maybe Foster is not 100%…
"A little learning is a dangerous thing; Drink deep, or taste not the Pierian spring."
"The difference between the right word and the almost right word is the difference between lightning and a lightning bug."
"God's whiskers! Your face is as hideous as the demon's in my storybook!"
"I never expected to see the day when girls would get sunburned in the places they do today."
"It's big for a reason."
For Pittsburgh fans, that's Pope, Twain, Rostand, Rogers and Megamind
Respect to the Texans but I don’t see where all the love is coming from. Some of you guys are the same ones who complain about the Ravens. How would you feel and what would you say if you were a Texans fan? You can’t have it both ways. Are they good? Hell yeah! Do they have major holes? Hell yeah! Are Houston coaches game planning to maximize their success? Hell yeah! Will the Ravens or another playoff team plan to make them a one-dimensional offense? Just my two cents but I don’t see them as legitimate contenders for a playoff run.
In Retrospect
I feel I am on more firm ground in critiquing the Ravens as I see a lot more of them than the Texans. From what little I have seen of the Texans, they appear to have a very good O-line -better than ours, although ours has come on as of late.
With regards to the Foster YPC stat, maybe the Texans O-line is not as quite as good as I thought or maybe Foster is not at 100% -don’t know as I have not seen enough of either to make a better determination.
I think I might be missing something as I am not sure where I am having it both ways.
"A little learning is a dangerous thing; Drink deep, or taste not the Pierian spring."
"The difference between the right word and the almost right word is the difference between lightning and a lightning bug."
"God's whiskers! Your face is as hideous as the demon's in my storybook!"
"I never expected to see the day when girls would get sunburned in the places they do today."
"It's big for a reason."
For Pittsburgh fans, that's Pope, Twain, Rostand, Rogers and Megamind
Don’t take it personally! People ignore the gargantuan holes in other teams and nitpick the Ravens when Flacco doesn’t throw 400 yards and 5 TDs. I don’t understand how we use whatever metric is convenient to critique the Ravens or to compliment other teams. How would one of the more critical Ravens fans feel about their playoff chances if they were a Texans fan?
by bshagagi on Dec 15, 2011 2:41 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
We're
Good.
And no, I’d rather not be a Texans fan and not just for the singular reason you stated :)
"A little learning is a dangerous thing; Drink deep, or taste not the Pierian spring."
"The difference between the right word and the almost right word is the difference between lightning and a lightning bug."
"God's whiskers! Your face is as hideous as the demon's in my storybook!"
"I never expected to see the day when girls would get sunburned in the places they do today."
"It's big for a reason."
For Pittsburgh fans, that's Pope, Twain, Rostand, Rogers and Megamind
OK everyone sorry for the confustion I did get this updated and I believe this is where we stand. Let me know if anything looks off.
On Ed Reed:
"I’ve told him to his face many times, ‘You’re the greatest safety ever to play the game,’"
"We all learn from each other, but we all learn most from him."
- Troy Polamalu
Again sorry for the confusion so if we win out we will be the #1 seed
Whew, thank ya. I was sure that all we had to worry about was us.
Flacco has to trust his receivers to make catches, but shouldn’t throw towards coverage. He needs to attack deep more often, but shouldn’t hold onto the ball so long. He needs to show more awareness in the pocket and move to extend plays, but nothing good comes of him leaving the pocket. He should run with the ball if nobody’s open, but he definitely can’t run with the ball.
Flacco should have the awareness of Roethlisberger, the elusiveness of Vick, the control of the offense of Manning, the leadership of Brady, the accuracy of Brees, and the arm strength of … Flacco? - Ampallang
or an “undecent” amount of football depending on the red zone play calling.
if flacco threw that goofy across his body pass against Pitt, troy’s hair would be flowing as he headed for the other end zone. do i think flacco was sure about that throw and saw the DB’s clear- no. do i think he threw up a prayer-yep. LOL
no idea what you're referring to
or how you could have a problem with Flacco’s play against Pitt
TO BILL BRASKY!!!
This is great. There wasn’t really anything to complain about with regard to Flacco’s play against the Steelers in both games, so we’ve resorted to making up pretend scenarios so we can be edgy and throw him under the bus. If Flacco had looked like a deer in the headlights in week one, Ray Rice would have torn a pec, ruining our whole season, and it’d all be on Flacco.
Water covers 2/3 of the Earth's surface. Ed Reed covers the rest.
State your case, back it up with facts and reasonable opinions ...
Bruce Raffel
raven is just one of those fans in Rosedale that loves when Flacco does bad, but hates when he does good.
Flacco has to trust his receivers to make catches, but shouldn’t throw towards coverage. He needs to attack deep more often, but shouldn’t hold onto the ball so long. He needs to show more awareness in the pocket and move to extend plays, but nothing good comes of him leaving the pocket. He should run with the ball if nobody’s open, but he definitely can’t run with the ball.
Flacco should have the awareness of Roethlisberger, the elusiveness of Vick, the control of the offense of Manning, the leadership of Brady, the accuracy of Brees, and the arm strength of … Flacco? - Ampallang
I don’t understand Raven’s point??
by bshagagi on Dec 13, 2011 10:08 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I think it was cleared up in the post
But just to confirm, Jamison Hensley on ESPN said this morning that if the Ravens win out, there was no way that our strength of Victory can fall below Houston or New England. In other words, win out = home field
Baltimore Blast - 6-time MISL/NISL Champions
Let's go Blues!
Yes.
It’s all in our hands.
You come at the king, you best not miss.
by organizedchaos52 on Dec 13, 2011 12:49 PM EST up reply actions
Strength of Victory must be a bummer for the teams that lose that tiebreaker
since they had no control over their schedule and can’t help it if the teams they beat went off and sucked the rest of the season.
TO BILL BRASKY!!!
They had control over the other 3-4 factors that determine seeds,
most importantly, which games they lost.
You come at the king, you best not miss.
by organizedchaos52 on Dec 13, 2011 12:49 PM EST up reply actions
… they had no control over their schedule and can’t help it if the teams they beat went off and sucked the rest of the season.
They are fully culpable for not having the foresight to lose only to shitty teams with lots of losses. It’s a winning formula, and I hope Harbaugh sticks with it in the future.
Water covers 2/3 of the Earth's surface. Ed Reed covers the rest.
State your case, back it up with facts and reasonable opinions ...
Bruce Raffel
by Ampallang on Dec 13, 2011 1:04 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Actually
I hadn’t thought of it this way before… Must ponder some more: suck serious a$$ against the bad teams, mop the floor with the good teams…
"A little learning is a dangerous thing; Drink deep, or taste not the Pierian spring."
"The difference between the right word and the almost right word is the difference between lightning and a lightning bug."
"God's whiskers! Your face is as hideous as the demon's in my storybook!"
"I never expected to see the day when girls would get sunburned in the places they do today."
"It's big for a reason."
For Pittsburgh fans, that's Pope, Twain, Rostand, Rogers and Megamind
I love strength of victory
this stat recognizes that great teams can lose to bad ones upon occasion, but will beat strong teams most of the time. This is the argument that invalidates the “your team sucks because you lost to xyz losers” debate. Yeah, they can lose to losers, but they beat winners, and ultimately, that’s what really matters.
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