What is Ray Rice Worth?

by Fandemonium on Oct 4, 2011 5:47 PM EDT

Now that Haloti Ngata is signed, sealed and guaranteed to anchor the Ravens defensive line for the next five years, I thought it would be interesting during the bye week to look at the next core Ravens players whose contracts are set to expire at the end of this season. The following Ravens key starters are due to become UFAs in 2012 (current contract in parenthesis).

Ray Rice (4 yr/$2,805,000)
Ben Grubbs (5 yr/$8,000,000)
Andre Gurode (1 yr/$3,000,000)
Lardarius Webb (3 yr/$1,714,500)
Jarrett Johnson (5 yr/$21,700,000)
Matt Birk (3 yr/$12,000,000)

I have listed them in my order of signing priority considering current team depth at the positions. I don’t think I will get much argument on Ray Rice being the #1 target. After that, I give O-line the nod by putting Grubbs #2 as a key anchor. I ranked Gurode next (over Birk for age reasons) and I put Webb over Johnson because skill positions are a priority over LB where we have more depth.

So let’s focus first on Ray Rice. What is he worth?

Here is a list of recent top RB signings.

Adrian Peterson – 2011 (7 yrs/$96M/no bonus)
Chris Johnson – 2011 (6 yrs/$56M/$10M)
Frank Gore - 2011 (4 yrs/$25.9M/no bonus)
Mark Ingram* - 2011 (4 yrs/$7.4M/$3.9M)
C.J. Spiller* - 2010 (5 yrs/$25M/no bonus)
Maurice Jones-Drew – 2009 (5 yrs/$30.95M/$9M)
Darren McFadden* - 2008 (6 yrs/$60M/$6.4M)
Steven Jackson – 2008 (6 yrs/$44.8M/$11.4M)
Michael Turner – 2008 (6 yrs/$34.5M/$15M)
(* 1st round draft pick rookie contract)

So where does Ray Rice fit into this salary structure?

Ray is a true 3-down RB whose value may actually increases on 3rd down passing situations. That makes it difficult to compare him to an Adrian Peterson who is of higher value from a purely statistical running the ball comparison. The RB who gained more yards receiving and rushing in 2010 was Arian Foster. As an undrafted rookie, Foster is currently playing under a one-year contract tender for the third-year NFL minimum salary. So Ray’s value should be somewhere between Foster ($525K) and Peterson ($96M). That helps.

Chris Johnson of the Titans is probably the best comparison in terms of both age and value to the team. Johnson just signed an extension, so that certainly will be the benchmark both sides use. For argument’s sake, let’s slot Ray next year at 6 years/$56M with a $10M signing bonus.

That’s a big chunk of salary cap hit with the other pending UFAs still to sign and a certain QB wanting a long term deal. We will certainly jettison Foxworth’s cap hit ($5.6M) and if we win the Super Bowl we could potentially lose Ray Lewis’ salary as well ($4.95M in 2012). Combine those two and you basically cover Little Ray’s $9.3M/yr.

So is Ray Rice worth a Chris Johnson type contract? Do you think he signs for less? Or do you find a cheaper alternative via the draft and use the cap space for other needs?

The opinions posted here are those of the administrator of this blog and his loyal readers. They are in no way official comments from the team, and should not be misconstued as such, even though he thinks he could do just as well or even a better job!

Tweet Comment 34 comments | 1 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

I think we see him get around 6 years, $38-42 million. I say this because Ray isn’t the ignorant, thugged out player like CJ2K is and is going to harm this team with a holdout. This guy is class all the way and I cannot see him wanting to play anywhere else right now.

His attitude and love for this game, city and team reminds me much of the situation with Haloti. Than man is not worth $60 million, he is worth about $100 million and I can guarantee there are a few teams out there who would give him that money. I see the same thing with Ray, he is a great player but an even better player and as long as Ozzie makes him an offer that is fair (where he gets most of it upfront in the first 2-3 years) he will be here.

Not resigning Rice would be maybe the biggest mistake this team has ever made. He is arguably the best RB in the game because he does everything at an exceptional level. It is going to be tough to get Grubbs, Rice and Joe all resigned, but I see us getting it done. We don’t let our high draft picks walk, especially after their first contract.

Flacco has to trust his receivers to make catches, but shouldn’t throw towards coverage. He needs to attack deep more often, but shouldn’t hold onto the ball so long. He needs to show more awareness in the pocket and move to extend plays, but nothing good comes of him leaving the pocket. He should run with the ball if nobody’s open, but he definitely can’t run with the ball.

Flacco should have the awareness of Roethlisberger, the elusiveness of Vick, the control of the offense of Manning, the leadership of Brady, the accuracy of Brees, and the arm strength of … Flacco? - Ampallang

by Mr MaLoR on Oct 4, 2011 8:13 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

I think he may get a little more than that yearly average just because how much he means to our team and he deserves. I agree though that I don’t believe he will be a huge distraction like CJ, but think he will make about 9 mill a year average.We definitely do need to re-sign him though. He is what makes our offense move and you could make an argument that he’s just as important to this offense as Joe is. I know QB is a much higher position of value, but Ray Rice is the center of our offense and it’s a must he stays in the black and purple.

On Ed Reed:
"I’ve told him to his face many times, ‘You’re the greatest safety ever to play the game,’"
"We all learn from each other, but we all learn most from him."
- Troy Polamalu

by AV23 on Oct 4, 2011 9:11 PM EDT up reply actions

I was almost certain Ngata would get at least $75 million and look what happened. I see Rice getting around $6.5-7.5 a year.

by Mr MaLoR on Oct 4, 2011 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions

i thought the same thing… and he did get 75 by getting 40 in the first two… present value and what not

rice is the only consistent playmaker on this offense… he makes the team much better. he makes it go

by Evan Skev on Oct 4, 2011 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Rice is a $10MM man, Malor… whatever MJD is worth, Rice is worth more… whatever CJ2K is worth, Rice is worth $1 more. He has the skills, the demeanor, the work ethic, the everything. He is a tailback and a wideout. He is a blocking TE on some plays. Imagine the Ravens O without Ray Rice and then imagine the size of the check he is going to get. If anyone has proven that they’re indispensable to a pro team, it’s Ray Rice.

He is about to get P-A-I-D. How about 5/$45MM with $25MM guaranteed and $17MM upfront. Too much? Remember the cap will increase significantly next season.

by Evan Skev on Oct 4, 2011 9:12 PM EDT up reply actions

We'll make sure Rice gets the money he deserves while keeping who we need to keep.

Our FO is too good to let players like that walk away. Even if they end up having to put him on a tail-heavy contract and find space in the coming years they’ll make sure he stays in purple.

by Roa on Oct 4, 2011 9:34 PM EDT up reply actions

They are definitely some of the best at what they do, but will it be possible to get Grubbs, Joe AND Rice all under contract in the same year without having to cut ties with other important players such as JJ?

by Mr MaLoR on Oct 4, 2011 9:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Honestly, probably not, but I can’t see us letting JJ (which would be disappointing) or anyone go without a suitable replacement.

by Roa on Oct 5, 2011 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree that a contract in the range of $6-8M/year is reasonable. The value of a RB in the pass happy NFL really has diminished over the past decade. How long has it been since a RB was even in the discussion as the #1 pick of the draft? Reggie Bush in 2006. Since then, only a handful of RB have been taken in the top 10. But that CJ contract will loom large in the negotiations.

I hope MaLoR is right and Ray realizes he woud rather be playing for a SB every year rather than getting the biggest contract.

"What we've got here is failure to communicate."

by Fandemonium on Oct 5, 2011 7:29 AM EDT up reply actions

Fan, rice is more than just an rb

by Evan Skev on Oct 5, 2011 8:56 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Don't disagree.

But yet he is a RB, so you have to consider that when you determine your overall salary structure. The #5 annual salary at RB is $5M. The #16 salary is around $2.5M. So if you pay Ray $10M/year, you are using 4X the cap space for that position than the mean average for other teams. That’s $7.5M you are not using for other positions – or 13% of a $120M salary cap.

Just saying – something that needs to be considered.

"What we've got here is failure to communicate."

by Fandemonium on Oct 5, 2011 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions

Honestly, If Rice wants 75 million, I would let him walk.

by Mr MaLoR on Oct 5, 2011 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions

How about 6 years/$56M? I love Ray Rice – and emotionally I want to give him that – but in the grand scheme of the salary cap, that is a hard pill to swallow.

"What we've got here is failure to communicate."

by Fandemonium on Oct 5, 2011 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions

If that POS Chris Johnson was satisfied enough to end his holdout with that contract, than I see it being less. Alot of people don’t take into consideration the type of person guys like Rice and Ngata are. The money isn’t important, but they want to be treated fairly.

As someone else stated, the RB position is not what it once was. I just can’t see Rice getting close to $10 million a year. My guess is still $6.5-7.5$ with alot upfront.

by Mr MaLoR on Oct 5, 2011 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions

I agree 100%. That still puts Ray in the top 5 annual salary. That is fair.

"What we've got here is failure to communicate."

by Fandemonium on Oct 5, 2011 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions

Rice 4 years 36 million.
Flacco released.
Grubbs renewed cafeteria gold pass.

by raven on Oct 4, 2011 8:43 PM EDT reply actions

I Think He

Gets CJ2k/Run DMc money.

Ray Rice Turned 24 this year (in January). He was used somewhat sparingly his rookie season, so after this season I’ll be generous and say he has three years wear and tear. Including the season he will be 30 on opening day (in theory turning 21 during the playoffs that season), he has six more highly productive seasons -conventional wisdom would say.

I do not believe the Ravens would sing him to a six year deal, so I believe it will be for five. So I’d say five years for $57M, with a bonus of $12M (that means pretty much $21M guaranteed). That means he gets to buy his mother a new home, a beach house, a condo in South Beach and a chalet in Vail…

And no, you do not find a cheaper alternative during next year’s draft to replace a Ray Rice.

Bruce this is an awesome post by Fan- you should promote this to the Front Page.

"A little learning is a dangerous thing; Drink deep, or taste not the Pierian spring."
"The difference between the right word and the almost right word is the difference between lightning and a lightning bug."
"God's whiskers! Your face is as hideous as the demon's in my storybook!"
"I never expected to see the day when girls would get sunburned in the places they do today."
"It's big for a reason."

For Pittsburgh fans, that's Pope, Twain, Rostand, Rogers and Megamind

by vlad755 on Oct 4, 2011 9:47 PM EDT reply actions

Thanks Vlad! Ozzie worked the magic with Haloti by using a lot of Biscotti gold in the signing bonus for Haloti making the guaranteed portion equivalent to or better than other big contracts without killing the cap. Maybe Oz uses the same strategy with Ray. $12M bonus seems about right.

"What we've got here is failure to communicate."

by Fandemonium on Oct 5, 2011 7:35 AM EDT up reply actions

slightly soiled by my replies but still “promote” worthy.

by raven on Oct 4, 2011 9:58 PM EDT reply actions

We don’t take kindly to people who don’t know two shits about our Quarterback situation.

by Mr MaLoR on Oct 4, 2011 10:00 PM EDT up reply actions

joe crappo and dirty sanchez

there are your two shits

by raven on Oct 4, 2011 10:11 PM EDT reply actions

your dad should have given you some attention… or killed you. one of the two

by Evan Skev on Oct 4, 2011 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions

ohhhh, go study abroad in a seedy part of Italy where the town prosecuter has a hard on for pasty English guys with Moonraker teeth.

by raven on Oct 4, 2011 11:08 PM EDT reply actions

I wouldn't be surprised tonsee the Ravens let Grubbs walk

He will command a lot on the open market and we will need to spend money elsewhere, much commit a ton to Yanda and Grubbs.

aka 'Rexx'

by Bruce Raffel on Oct 4, 2011 11:13 PM EDT reply actions

I tend to agree. I’d hate to see Grubbs walk, but I’d hate even more to see us throw a top tier contract at him. When Grubbs is on, he’s very good, but the only thing consistent about his game is his inconsistency.

Water covers 2/3 of the Earth's surface. Ed Reed covers the rest.

State your case, back it up with facts and reasonable opinions ...
Bruce Raffel

by Ampallang on Oct 4, 2011 11:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Nice wordplay.

Yup, Grubbs is in Bart Scott’s situation from three years. Too many good players at one position. Oz has already made his decision by paying Yanda.

I can’t see us paying Grubbs close to what other teams are going to pay him.

The writer formerly known as This White Man Can Jump; Powah Stached; Bear Killer; Da Dude; The Other Bambino; TJ Dropped The Season; Harbaugh Is My Co-Pilot; Billick's Alter Ego; Mr. Poopy Pants.

by El.Dude on Oct 5, 2011 7:48 AM EDT up reply actions

Good point

If Grubbs wants to sign with the highest bidder, our salary structure probably can’t afford him. Let’s hope that Grubbs is not a player that equates more money with happiness, but rather decides the best formula is happiness = enough money + winning.

"What we've got here is failure to communicate."

by Fandemonium on Oct 5, 2011 8:28 AM EDT up reply actions

Could that mean Yanda plays LG or stays at RG? I mean, we have seen how much we missed Grubbs this year, and he was a first round pick. Who was the last good first round pick that Ozzie let walk after their rookie contract was up?

Not saying it won’t happen, but history with Ozzie tells us that he does not like to get rid of these guys. I think it would be smart to invest as much money as possible in the O-Line, the most important group position on the team.

by Mr MaLoR on Oct 5, 2011 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions

Yanda stays at RG

Run right. Pass protect left. Yanda is a bruiser in the running game.

"What we've got here is failure to communicate."

by Fandemonium on Oct 5, 2011 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions

It all depends on the salary cap. Joe and Rice are going to get theirs. Grubbs is third in line. The question is how much is left to over him?

The writer formerly known as This White Man Can Jump; Powah Stached; Bear Killer; Da Dude; The Other Bambino; TJ Dropped The Season; Harbaugh Is My Co-Pilot; Billick's Alter Ego; Mr. Poopy Pants.

by El.Dude on Oct 5, 2011 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions

Could that mean Yanda plays LG or stays at RG?

if the ravens let grubbs walk then they most likely are going to need to draft a LG unless(yes its going to sound crazy) they convert Micheal Oher until a left guard only if Jah Reid really steps up next year as a right tackle/better right tackle than Oher.

I doubt it will happen but its possible but if it does then the ravens will have two very big tackles with big athletic guards that can play tackle as well

What happens to a dream deferred?
Does it dry up
Like a raisin in the sun?
Or fester like a sore--
And then run?
Does it stink like rotten meat?
Or crust and sugar over--
like a syrupy sweet?
Maybe it just sags
like a heavy load.
Or does it explode?-langton Hughes

yeah I agree with Jimmy and Cary shutting down the other teams WR’s, they’ll make anybody rushing the QB look good - Jaz

by jazz20 on Oct 5, 2011 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Not so sure about that

If we’ve learned one thing this year, it’s the difference a top tier O-line makes in our offense. Joe is not as a Big Ben that can create plays when the line breaks down. We need to be able to run the ball and work off play action for the offense to click. And I think Grubbs is one of the better LG in the league.

I would be interested in Filmstudy’s take on Grubbs since he has studied him more than me, but I theing you and Amp may be underrating him a bit.

I am equally concerned about center. This is probably Birk’s last year. Just how much more can his knees take? I think Grubbs may be an easier sign than Gurode who showed in Dallas he would rather walk than take a pay cut.

"What we've got here is failure to communicate."

by Fandemonium on Oct 5, 2011 7:42 AM EDT up reply actions

… you and Amp may be underrating him a bit.

The vast majority of what I know about our offensive line from game to game and year to year is based on Filmstudy’s work. I believe Grubbs’ general trend over the years has been up-and-down. That doesn’t mean that I’m looking for a reason to boot him; I’m just hoping that Ozzie and Grubbs can work out a contract in line with his actual value to the Ravens organization.

Water covers 2/3 of the Earth's surface. Ed Reed covers the rest.

State your case, back it up with facts and reasonable opinions ...
Bruce Raffel

by Ampallang on Oct 5, 2011 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions

Thanks for the input on Film

That is counter to what my gut said from watching/remembering games. LG was never a position I felt was a worry from week-to-week. But I agree Ozzie won’t/can’t overpay Grubbs after signing Yanda. As I said in another post, let’s just hope Grubb uses the formula for happiness = enough $ + winning.

"What we've got here is failure to communicate."

by Fandemonium on Oct 5, 2011 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions