AdamJT predicts with high accuracy the amount of Compensatory picks that will be awarded around the league. Alot of Ravens fans think because we lost good players like Bart Scott, Jason Brown, and Jim Leonhard, we automatically get extra draft picks. But that is not how it works (for a full explanation, go to AdamJT's site posted above and find it). The league has a formula, which Adam has basically figured out, which is what the league uses to figure out how many extra picks to give each team.
As the NFL explains, compensatory picks are awarded to teams that lose more or better compensatory free agents than they acquire. The number of picks a team can receive equals the net loss of compensatory free agents, up to a maximum of four. Compensatory free agents are determined by a secret formula based on salary, playing time and postseason honors. Not every free agent lost or signed is covered by the formula.
The round of the extra picks can be as high as the 3rd round. For example if I signed 2 players and lost 4, I would be eligible for 2 picks. The league determines which round these picks should be in based on amount of playing time, production, and the size of the contract signed. There may be more factors that we don't know about.
The Ravens lost 3 players who will for sure qualify in Scott, Leonhard, and Brown. The only other who may qualify is Boller. But it is not a sure thing.
The Ravens signed 3 players who will for sure qualify in Birk, Foxworth, and Carr. Kelley Washington will likely qualify too. So we likely end up with the same or more players signed as lost, meaning we get no extra picks.
The possibility where we might pick up a pick is called a net-value pick, at the end of the 7th round. A net-value pick is where the total value (I think contractually) is more in the players you lost then the players you signed. This is definitely the case for us, as Brown and Scott signed massive contracts. Brown and Scotts are around double the combined contracts of Foxworth, Birk, Carr, and Washington combined. So we will see.
I posted a Ravens question for him in the comments, hopefully he will give us some insight into our situation. I just hope we didn't give away a 3rd or 4th rounder because we signed Kelley Washington or Chris Carr. Sign-and-trades are the way to go. In the past Ozzie has been so good about accumulating compensatory picks, I wonder what happened this time...
Adam and my conversation in the comments:
Great job! I have 2 questions for you.
1) Who qualified for the Ravens. Obviously Brown, Scott and Leonhard going out for the Ravens, and possibly Boller?
Coming in, Birk, Foxworth, Carr and Kelley Washington.
2)I was wondering if you think there may be such thing as a net-value pick that does not fall in the 7th round. Has there ever been a team that lost as many big priced players as the Ravens did, and did not replace them with high priced replacements? The Ravens lost Brown (4 base + 11 signing), Scott (4.5 base + 3.5 signing) and replace them with Birk (4.5 million) and Foxworth (800k +4 signing +3.4 reporting) Not sure if bonuses count for the equation or how salary is calculated. Bottom line is the combined contracts of Brown Scott and Leonhard dwarf those signed by Foxworth and Birk, at least overall.
Baltimore lost Bart Scott, Jason Brown, Jim Leonhard and Kyle Boller. The Ravens signed Dominique Foxworth, Matt Birk, Chris Carr and L.J. Smith.
There has never been a net-value pick placed anywhere but the end of the seventh round, after all of the regular comp picks and before any non-compensatory picks. The NFL always points out when a team receives a comp pick despite not suffering a net loss of qualifying players, so it's easy to know which picks are net-value picks and exactly where they are placed.
The majority of the difference between the Ravens' signings and losses is the difference between Scott and Birk. Foxworth's value is only slightly lower than Brown's value, Carr's value is higher than Leonhard's value, and Smith's value is only slightly lower than Boller's value. When their values are combined, the difference between the four players lost and the four players signed isn't significant enough to warrant a net-value pick, according to my calculations based on previous net-value picks.