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Flacco Only Needs to Improve by 100 Yards

Now that the Baltimore Ravens have traded for Anquan Boldin and re-signed Derrick Mason, every fan is expecting QB Joe Flacco to improve by leaps and bounds over his first two years in the NFL. They are now talking about 4,000 yards, 30 touchdown passes and Flacco becoming an All-Pro QB and spoken about as one of the top in the league.

Whoa, hold on there folks, talk about setting the bar way too high and also setting the third year pro up for failure. The team just added one more player and while he is a very, very good one, he is still just one guy and no sport is more of a team game than pro football. The needs of the eleven guys on the field at one time and the team as a whole lessens the effect of one guy in football more than in any other professional sport.

Every time that Flacco throws the ball to Boldin, that is just one throw that would have gone somewhere else and the difference between those throws will be the difference in our level of improvement. So what can we reasonably expect as far as improvement from Flacco and what does Joe really need to do to reach the next level for himself as well as the team?

Star-divide

To me, this is a pretty easy question to answer as I look back to the 2009 season. Trying to figure out how many more yards and touchdowns as a result of adding Boldin to the mix with Mason, Stallworth, Heap, Clayton and who knows who else is pure conjecture at this point, as their mere presence will also open up the run game as I stated in a recent story here on Baltimore Beatdown. However, the simple answer I speak of is that Joe only needs to throw for around 100 more yards over the course of the season than he did in 2009 and the difference will be disproportional to the results.

"Are you kidding me?" is what you're saying to my 100 yards statement. You're probably part of that 1,000 more yards and 5-10 more TD passes. I can't see the 1,000 more yards as this team's offensive identity will still be the strong running game backed up by a solid passing attack that just can't be ignored anymore. However, to expect Head Coach John Harbaugh to allow Cam Cameron to turn the offense into the "Greatest Show on Turf" is just ridiculous. You can dream, however.

The 100 yard comment is broken down by this: In 2009, the Ravens finished 9-7 and just squeaked into the post season. During the season, there were four specific games that the Ravens were in until the last moments only to lose. Three of those games were lost by less than a touchdown and the fourth was a 13 point loss (Monday Night Football game in Green Bay.

In each of those three losses by less than a touchdown, Joe Flacco threw a critical Red Zone interception. The first Red Zone pick came in game four of the season when we went into New England to face the Patriots after opening the season 3-0 and on an offensive roll. After a rocky start, the Ravens were driving towards the end of the first half and were in the Red Zone looking for a touchdown or at least a field goal. Flacco threw a terrible pass that was intercepted and kept us form closing the gap in the score. At the end of the game, we had a fourth and goal play where Mark Clayton dropped the ball and the game was lost. Had Flacco not thrown that pick and we had put up even three points before the half, we have been driving for the tying or winning score and would not have even gone for the ill-fated fourth down play, as we would have kicked the game-tying field goal at that point and who knows what could have happened.

The next came on the very first offensive drive of the next game against the eventual AFC North Champion Cincinnati Bengals. The Ravens ended up losing that game by three points on a late TD pass by the Bengals' Carson Palmer. Cincinnati would have still be down after that score with seconds left in the game had the Ravens put a TD on the board on that opening drive.

Most people still cringe when they remember the Red Zone pass that was intercepted in the Ravens 17-15 loss to the Indianapolis Colts last season. Flacco threw a pass into triple coverage as it appeared he was set on throwing that ball to that spot as he broke the huddle and never looked anywhere else. One touchdown that day instead of five field goals would have more than likely given us a win over the Colts and changed the entire outlook of the season for the Ravens and ended the Colts unbeaten season up until that point.

Flacco also threw a poor Red zone interception on that Monday Night Football debacle against the Green Bay Packers. With 12 penalties, including five pass interference calls against the team, I doubt Flacco's pick cost us the game, but throwing three interceptions in that game it certainly contributed to the loss.

Turning those three specific Red Zone picks into wins might very well and probably would have also turned those losses into wins. Three more wins would have put us at 12-4 and with one of those wins being over the Bengals, would have easily given us the AFC North title and a #3 seed in the post season. A victory over the Colts in the regular season would have given us the confidence to know we could beat them and a date in the AFC Championship Game would have been a real chance to advance to the Super Bowl for the Ravens after getting so close the prior year. No one knows what might have happened but my entire point of this story is to simply state that an improvement of only approximately 100 yards and the elimination of those critical Red Zone interceptions can be the difference between barely sneaking into the playoffs or stomping in to fight for a Super Bowl berth.

 

 

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Next Steps for Joe

1. Become more proficient at pre snap reads (This would include better blitz awareness and identification of his hot reads).
2. Better use of hard counts to keep defenses from timing his rhythem.
3. Using the whole field (part of this is on Cam as well).
4. Regain his pocket awareness.
5. Discontinue patting the ball in the pocket and better utilization of pump fakes to manipulate the defense.

Joe is capable of doing all of this, but this is a critical year for his progression.

by 60minuteassassin on Mar 14, 2010 9:39 AM EDT reply actions  

Well broken down

Keep commenting on the X’s and O’s of the game here. Thanks!

aka 'Rexx'

by Bruce Raffel on Mar 14, 2010 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions  

Learn to use the Pump Fake

All the greatest QBs can do it…
 
He could kill on a double move to Stallworth with a proper pump fake…. but I’m not holding my breath, I saw his Pizza Hut commercial, fool can’t act.

by ATXRaven on Mar 15, 2010 8:12 AM EDT up reply actions  

What!?

Are you saying that “Flacco’s Favorite” bit wasn’t Oscar worthy? What about the Antwerpen one, or the Reebok Fantasy Files? Those were DeNiro-like!

aka 'Rexx'

by Bruce Raffel on Mar 15, 2010 9:04 AM EDT up reply actions  

Reebok was pretty awesome.

I didn’t get to see the antwerpen one down in TX, I will have to youtube that.

by ATXRaven on Mar 15, 2010 9:43 AM EDT up reply actions  

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L-NXDapSWGA

You have to hate losing more than you love winning.

by Mr MaLoR on Mar 15, 2010 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Negative, the Pizze Hut one they show around here is incredible.

Here are the bloopers. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L-NXDapSWGA

How can you not love this kid!!!!

You have to hate losing more than you love winning.

by Mr MaLoR on Mar 15, 2010 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hilarious

Recommend you all watch these 9 seconds!

aka 'Rexx'

by Bruce Raffel on Mar 16, 2010 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

Great Points

Pre snap reads is huge, IMO. With Boldin in the offense now, it really is going to be a pick your poison type of scenario for opposing defenses. So if Flacco can determine that before the snap, he can audible to a run/pass play accordingly.

by klunker18 on Mar 15, 2010 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree with you on this post. We don’t even need Boldin to improve on that level. That’s a matter of Flacco making the right choice or throwing the ball away. Hopefully our O will be good enough so that our D will be able to just close out games now. A 10 point lead in the forth should be good enough for our D to finish the game,

by Georgia Raven on Mar 14, 2010 9:42 AM EDT via mobile reply actions  

Agree that a few offensive changes should have a significant impact

Given the number of good players on the offense, I agree that incremental improvements from the team should be able to translate in to a quantum level improvement in the overall offense performance.

We need to remember that this team statistically did quite well (e.g., # 1 on Football Outsider stats for the year) but it was the better teams that “found a way to win” against us.

Without being able to see the game tape, it seemed that defensive coordinators were able to adjust to our strategies well and we didn’t have the tools to respond (plus Joe’s significant injuries). The team’s strategy to add WR and (hopefully) tight end skill and depth should prevent this.

The one stat I would like to see significant improvement on is yards passed per attempt — would mean that we are stretching the field, which will open up the running game significantly.

by Merlin11 on Mar 14, 2010 11:05 AM EDT reply actions  

Totally agree with final comment

That one stat shows how short our passing game was with curl ins to Mason and Clayton the norm. Now we need to get Boldeing the ball facing downfield for huge YAC to increase that number exponentially.

aka 'Rexx'

by Bruce Raffel on Mar 14, 2010 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions  

I don’t think it will be a reach for flacco to hit 4000 yards. the 30 td’s though I can see as a reach.Around half the games last year he didn’t even reach 200 yards and yet still threw for around 3600 yards. Even without Boldin I don’t think 4,000 is a reach it’s just more of how much more does Flacco progress.

by AV23 on Mar 14, 2010 3:09 PM EDT reply actions  

I'll take the 30 TD's

over the 4,000 yards.

aka 'Rexx'

by Bruce Raffel on Mar 14, 2010 4:48 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

Bruce, my story about our recent live mock draft is set to publish tomorrow morning.

You have to hate losing more than you love winning.

by Mr MaLoR on Mar 14, 2010 7:23 PM EDT reply actions  

I hope

Joe won’t have to throw that much. If the running game gets going, we won’t have to. I think a strength to our offense is the minimal risk we need to play with. Having Favre would be just the opposite, although much more dynamic and exciting. I am really interested in whether Jim Zorn’s presence will be noticed. When Cam was in San Diego they raved and raved about how he bread Rivers. Then he went to Miami and sucked it up as a head coach. He’s probably where he should be now, I think. I like the quote from John Harbaugh after he got the job here, something about how some people just belong in a certain job. Zorn was the QB coach in Seattle. I lived there back in those days, and I remember the poise of Hasselback when they made their Super Bowl run. They say maybe that was due to Zorn, maybe. Zorn left and stunk up the Skins, and maybe he is where he should be now, too. How exciting.

by PurpleNorangeNbeer on Mar 14, 2010 7:28 PM EDT reply actions  

Um

basically, I’m just stating the many factors at hand here. We may have an entirely different game plan coming into next season, like we did last season. Zorn could make a difference, although, from what I hear, Hugh Jackon was no slouch. I’m confident having Flacco on my team. It’s only his third season. All the pieces may have come into place to this point, I think we could have something special here.

by PurpleNorangeNbeer on Mar 14, 2010 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

But to expect this team

to go from a run-first to a pass-first offense is ludacris and would spell disaster IMO.

aka 'Rexx'

by Bruce Raffel on Mar 15, 2010 9:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

I do not see why

we can’t get pumped about the passing game. A more effective passing game will improve the efficiency and effectiveness of our running game. Run-first is great. That way we can really use a play action, which is statistically the best play on offense. We lost our “three-headed monster” (2 years ago) and we cannot keep throwing to Ray Rice in the flat (last year). I think it will have to be our passing game that revitalizes the running game this year.

by PurpleNorangeNbeer on Mar 16, 2010 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions  

There is definitely a good buzz about baltimore now.Our offense was better and more explosive last year than it has been in a long time. With our new wr’s and Mason comming back we look strong in both parts of the game. I think our ypa will increase being that Boldin excels running post routs and going up to get the ball. Stallworth will be our deep guy. With Mason and Clayton working underneath. The key to our success will be keeping play calling balanced.

by Georgia Raven on Mar 14, 2010 8:07 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

+1

Offense normally takes years to build (NO, NE, Arizona, SD). We took some steps last year and then Joe got injured. We should get better again this year and be a legit top 10 offense. Flacco is entering year three, when good QB’s really start to shine. We need one more playmaker on offense through the draft, then we should be set.

by BmoreBlitz on Mar 15, 2010 8:17 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think that there is little doubt that your passing game will improve with Bolden

You have a team with a lot of potential to win the div and go further than last year. Your game like the Bengals game would IMO work best using the run to set up the pass rather than the other way around. Flacco in his first year wasn’t experienced enough to know that he wasn’t supposed to be a star QB and he went out and just played ball. Last year I think he just got caught up in thinking a bit too much. My fear, as a Bengal fan is that he will be a bit looser and just play ball. When he does that he is very good. Putting the load on him too much could cause him to tighten up a bit and feel too much pressure to win it himself. That, IMO, is what the team needs to protect against. I expect a good even balance to keep the D a bit unsure.

Your biggest weakness from my perspective is your safety/corner situation. Reed is still a star and plays like it but the clock is ticking and it is jusy a matter of time before he begins to drop off a bit. This could be the year he loses a step but with an athlete of his caliber it wouldn’t surprise me to see another fine year from him. The same goes for Ray. A Safety and Corner would appear to me to be the areas you need to address for now but more importantly in the future. IMO you have the biggest chance of winning the division and are the best team depending on how the rest of the off season plays out. I say that because the Bengals have become a very similar team and the difference is only a player or two. For you it depends on Flacco regaining his 2008 form and for us it is Carson staying healthy and going thru the year without injury so he can be Carson again.

"Coincidence is God's way of staying anonymous"

by JUNGLEJOHN on Mar 15, 2010 10:25 AM EDT reply actions  

Sorry ATX, it is just a habbit. A business associate is named Bolden

I will try to get it right in the future. Boldin, Boldin, Boldin Like I say it is just habit. No disrespect intended.

"Coincidence is God's way of staying anonymous"

by JUNGLEJOHN on Mar 15, 2010 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

Good breakdown, but we Ravens fans have to remember

we traded for Anquan Boldin, not the Hall of Fame QB, Kurt Warner, that was throwing him the ball. Joe will be better and get Anquan the ball. But to expect the same results is crazy.

aka 'Rexx'

by Bruce Raffel on Mar 15, 2010 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

I hope Boldin knows that too

Arizona has the exact opposite kind of offense.

Give me an offensive line or give me death!

by Generzal Zod on Mar 16, 2010 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree with ATXRaven, you are everything that is Holy. Not as holy as Antonio Bryant though, I can see why he got the same contract as Boldin to be your number two. He had like 80 catches for 1100 yards and 7 tds in a season. WOW!

You have to hate losing more than you love winning.

by Mr MaLoR on Mar 15, 2010 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree with you on most of the points

Only that I think our secondary is not as suspect as our pass rush. Our DB problem seemed to be two fold last season, IMO.

Lack of pass rush means too much time for mediocre talent, AND
Taking time for both new players and old players to adjust to a new defense (they played much better down the stretch)

It is still a weakness, but not as glaring to me as pass rush…

by ATXRaven on Mar 15, 2010 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

That is a good point ATX

Pass rush and corner/safety play feed off of each other. If the backfield covers well the QB holds the ball longer increasing the sack odds or forces the ball into coverage and increases ints. If the DL/LBs get to the QB the backfields doesn’t have to maintain coverage so long. As I reflect you did seem to depend a bit more on the blitz for QB pressure but then you always did that even when your DL was a bit more athletic. In our games together I thought your pass rush was pretty good but then our OL was still in the process of gelling.

Boldin – Boldin – Boldin See, I am working on it.

"Coincidence is God's way of staying anonymous"

by JUNGLEJOHN on Mar 15, 2010 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

As I've always said...

you’ll see how good any corner cpould be witrh a great pass rush. Without one, you can have Leon Hall and Jonathan Josephs, much less Champ, Revis, or Nmongha back there and they will get burned.

aka 'Rexx'

by Bruce Raffel on Mar 15, 2010 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yes Bruce that is true

However unless you are really lucky and find a couple of diamonds in the rough it is very hard to be able to find or afford both a stellar Dline and a stellar Backfield. The trick is to get a balance. If you have a great Dline your backfield doesn’t have to be stellar and to a bit lesser extent visa versa. We here in Cincy have very good CBs but only decent Safetys and a reasonably good Dline which when healthy they can be pretty good. But it takes Zimmer or better yet a Ryan to scheme to use the strengths to it’s advantage and protect it’s weaknesses. Your D is still excellent. You shouldn’t need to score 30 a game to win.

I think all of this hype about the league becoming pass first is only a passing trend with QBs like Manning and Brees and perhaps Brady not being the norm. IMO in the end power AFCN football will prevail as the league adjusts. I think the worst thing a team like the Ravens or the recent Bengals can do is try to shift to a pass first team when we aren’t really built that way. If either team tries to go 60-40 pass to run they would not be playing to their strengths even if Carson and Flacco up their game. I trying to do so they could drain resources from their areas of traditional strength, in the case of the Ravens and the new AfCN style Bengals. Both are still run first teams IMO and only a relatively minor increase in passing proficiency is all that is needed.

"Coincidence is God's way of staying anonymous"

by JUNGLEJOHN on Mar 15, 2010 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

Just look at that KC game for the Ravens

threw for a ton of yards for us but could have blown it because we didn’t grind out the game against a shiite team.

by ATXRaven on Mar 15, 2010 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not that that was the reason it was close… it was one of those flukie games, but just an example of the crap that happens when we go too pass heavy.

by ATXRaven on Mar 15, 2010 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'll take a better pass rush over a CB

and we’ll see how much better our secondary looks.

aka 'Rexx'

by Bruce Raffel on Mar 16, 2010 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

No huddle

Agree on the thinking part. Flacco does best in the groove, and he had that when we went no huddle. We ought to enter every game with our first 15 offensive plays already worked out so we can go no huddle on the first drive, just like the 49ers back in the Steve Young era.

by davver on Mar 15, 2010 10:51 AM EDT reply actions  

Zorn was a big reason that Hasselbeck had those good seasons

He will do wonders for Joe and his arm. Will Joe ever be a 30 TD and 4,000 yard QB? I doubt it and it is not due to talent but it seems like the team is not built for it.

Give me an offensive line or give me death!

by Generzal Zod on Mar 16, 2010 12:06 PM EDT reply actions  

In that case we need 100 yards of kicking

If you look at those three incidents as being the difference in the season, let me propose this. Field goal against Minnesota 44 yarder missed by Hauschka – Game lost. Indianapolis – Cundiff hit 5 field goals but missed on a short 30 yarder – we lost by 2 pts – game lost. Also Botched 38 yarder against Cincy on Nov 8. We lost by 10, but field goal would have tied at time, causing Bengals to play differently – game lost. So count it up 44 yarder, 38 yarder, 30 yarder. Yep sounds like about 100 yards to me and it sounds like putting the blame in the right spot and not on the back of our franchise qb who has played far and above anything we have seen in Baltimore since Bert Jones!!!! Just a poor article from top to bottom.

by Xinellum on Mar 16, 2010 3:16 PM EDT reply actions  

Wow, sorry I disappointed you

but to ever blame a loss on the kicker is missing the rest of the game, where the offense had a chance to score and the defense had a chance to stop the other team. A FG is just a way to capitalize on a missed opportunity. Wow, I bet that pisses off a lot of placekickers!

aka 'Rexx'

by Bruce Raffel on Mar 16, 2010 7:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

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