FanPost

Bringing Boldin to Baltimore

 

Anyone who has a problem giving up a 1st rounder for Boldin is nuts.  There is about a 45% success rate at drafting WR, and that doesn't take into account the years it takes for that WR to develop.  While Boldin wants more money, it will also cost us money to sign a 1st round draft pick.  Not as much, but why pay a guy like DHB or Britt or Nicks 2 million a year for the next 2 years to develop, plus a signing bonus, when you can pay a little more money to Boldin to start contributing on a pro-bowl level immediately.  I don't get the logic.

Now obviously, the starting point is a 1st and a 3rd rounder, so i figure Ozzie is going to bargain a little, especially since we only have 6 total picks in this draft.  There is a rumor of Heap being involved in the deal.  If it would cost us our 1st and Heap for Boldin i would do it in a second, because it would also mean we would have Heap's money to pay Boldin.  Plus, maybe we could resign L.J. Smith if he has a good year, and we would then draft a TE prob in the 3rd or 4th round.  Or maybe Ozzie will try to make the second pick in the trade into a 2010 pick, either 3rd or 4th round, because we need depth this year, and we wouldn't want to go in with one 1st day pick.

People have to take into account how long it takes WR to develop.  Most WR do not contribute much as a rookie, and many still dont contribute much as a sophomore either.  So if you take the failure rate (55%)  plus the rookie not contributing rate, in the end the chances of drafting a WR who will contribute before Ray and Birk are ready to retire are around 10%.  So i don't care to bank on that 10% when we have a 3 year window for a Super Bowl with Ray and this great team.

1st round WR since 2000: (37)

Pro-bowl caliber- Calvin Johnson, S. Holmes, B. Edwards, Roy Williams, Roddy, White, Fitz, Andre Johnson, Wayne, S. Moss, Burress 10/37

Starters-Ginn, Bowe, A. Gonzalez, Mark Clayton, Lee Evans, Michael Clayton, J. Walker, K.Robinson 8/37

Backups- Meachem, Davis,  M. Jones, Michael Jenkins, Bryant Johnson, Stallworth, Lelie 7/37

Busts-Williamson, Mike Williams, Rashaun Wood, C. Rogers, D. Terrell, F.Mitchell, Warrick, T. Taylor, Soward, S. Morris 10/37

So there is a 18/37 48% chance of a 1st rounder being a starter, and a 10/37 27% chance of him being a pro-bowler.  Isn't it better to take the higher odds of Boldin being a pro-bowler (obviously you need to factor in him sucking or getting inured) and give up a little more instead of drafting an unsure thing that will take a year or 2 to contribute at a high level, if at all.

And for all those looking for us to draft a WR in the 2nd round, the success rate is even lower.

2nd round WR since 2000: (41)

Pro-bowl caliber- Boldin, Chad Johnson,  Greg Jennings 3/41

Starters- Avery, Eddie Royal, DeSean Jackson, S Rice, V. Jackson, Deion Branch, Antonio Bryant, Chris Chambers, Jerry Porter 9/41

Backups-Steve Smith, Reggie Brown,  Devery Henderson, Andre Davis, Reche Caldwell, Antwaan Randle El, Dennis Northcutt 7/41

Inconclusive-Devin Thomas, Jordy Nelson, J Hardy, Simpson, M. Kelly,  Sweed, Dexter Jackson, Jarrett 8/41

Busts-Sinorice Moss, Chad Jackson, Mark Bradley,  Parrish, Murphy,  Darius Watts, Keary Colbert, Taylor Jacobs, Bethel Johnson, T. Calico, Tim Carter, Quincy Morgan, Robert Ferguson, Todd Pinkston 14/41

In the 2nd round, there is a much higher bust rate (34%, leaving out all of last years class that didnt contribute (7 WR's)), and a much lower pro-bowl rate (.7%, also leaving out last years class)  What falls in the middle are mediocre, contributing 3rd WR's, which is not what the Ravens are looking for.

So for all those looking for Ozzie to draft a WR and develop him, both his track record (travis taylor, patrick johnson, mark clayton), and the league's track record (1st round 27 % pro bowl, 48 % starter, and 2nd round 3 % pro bowl, 29 % starter) indicate that it makes much more sense to trade for a proven pro bowler in his prime and pay him more money, than to give half that money to a 1st rounder who will take 1-3 years to develop assuming he doesn't end up a bust, even if you have to give up an additional mid-round pick. 

So although you might be a big fan of Kenny Britt, or Hakim Nicks, or DHB, or Harvin, the logic points to the path with a higher success rate: trade.

The Eagles and Patriots both went this route with Moss and Owens and made the Super Bowl the following season, although they lost.  The next team to join that list should be the Ravens and Boldin.

 

http://blogs.suntimes.com/bears/2009/02/catching_on_drafting_a_wide_re.html

http://blogs.suntimes.com/bears/2009/02/wide_receivers_a_roll_of_the_d.html

 

 

 

The opinions posted here are those of the administrator of this blog and his loyal readers. They are in no way official comments from the team, and should not be misconstued as such, even though he thinks he could do just as well or even a better job!

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