Ravens @ Packers: Prediction & Gametime 'Open Thread'
by Bruce Raffel on Dec 7, 2009 10:37 AM EST
88 comments
Come back all day long and stick with Baltimore Beatdown throughout the Monday Night Football game to post your comments on the Baltimore Ravens at the Green Bay Packers tilt on prime time TV. As noted before, while the Pack has played night games before, this is the very first ever in December because it's always thought to have been way too cold to schedule one at this time of year. However, the NFL powers that be have decided to grant the Ravens the honor of being the first visiting team to experience the Frozen Tundra of Lambeau Field in this way. Temps are expected to be below freezing and at the time of this writing, it is snowing in Green Bay. However, it is not expected to continue through the game, so it will just be very, very cold tonight.
Don't expect the weather to have any effect on the game tonight in terms of the excuse why one team wins or loses. Both teams will pretty much be experiencing this bitter cold for the first time in 2009 and will handle it just fine once the whistle blows for the opening kickoff. How the teams execute will be the sole determining effect about who comes out ahead, and this is why I see both teams' record being 7-5 by the end of the game:
The Green Bay Packers are considered a 3.5 point favorite tonight. For a home team to just be picked to win by a field goal is the oddsmakers way of saying this is an even game. While the Packers are 7-4 and 4-2 at home, with both losses to teams that have also beaten the Ravens (Cincinnati, Minnesota). However, Green Bay has exactly one win over a team with a winning record (Dallas), and that team, other than a Thanksgiving Day home win over Oakland, has been an unimpressive 2-2 over their last four games.
On the Ravens side are wins over the AFC West's San Diego Chargers and Denver Broncos, teams that would be in the playoffs if the season were to end now, and three wins over teams with winning records at that time. In fact, every loss that the Ravens have had this season have been to teams that are in first place in their division. The Packers sit in second place in the NFC North, so if the trend holds true, the Ravens should win this game.
The lack of the Packers wins being over quality teams combined with their loss at Tampa Bay giving up 38 points in that game, lead me to believe that they can be scored on by the Ravens offense. I can see the running attack being distributed enough to give all three backs enough carries to wear down the Green Bay defense and keep them creeping up to stack the box. That leaves our wide receivers pretty much in single coverage and other than Charles Woodson, are susceptible to the big play. The Green Bay linebackers will not be able to cover Ray Rice out of the backfield and I expect the Ravens offensive line to not only open holes for the running attack, but to adequately protect Joe Flacco so he can find his open recievers and know where Woodson is at all times.
So that leaves the Ravens defense to do what they can to slow down the Packers prolific passing attack. Slow down is the key word, as stopping it altogether is pretty much out of the question. Keep the big plays to a minimum and don't let anyone get behind you for the long ball completions to a great group of wideouts and tight ends. I do not see Ryan Grant having a good game, so it will all come down to the pass rush to decide the contest. As mediocre as the Ravens pass rush has been this season, Green Bay's pass protection is the worst in the league. QB Aaron Rodgers tends to hold onto the ball too long and hopefully that will lead to a few sacks, but more importantly, poor decision making and turnovers through interceptions that the Ravens defense gives the ball to the offense on short fields to put points up. An Ed Reed pick-six certainly wouldn't hurt either and I see a couple of defensive turnovers giving the Ravens the edge. It should be a close one, but I like the Ravens chances to win this game and continue sticking with the Denver Broncos and Jacksonville Jaguars in the hunt for an AFC Wild Card playoff slot.
Ravens: 27-24
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This is something rather strange that I read today.
Free Ed Reed!
"Free Ed Reed," shouted Yahoo! Sports Michael Silver in his Monday Night Football preview.
Ever since Suggs went down with a knee injury vs. the Cleveland Browns, the Ravens have gone two straight games without a sack. Meanwhile, we’ve all heard the stat that Aaron Rodgers is the most sacked quarterback in league with 44.
Silver believes that Reed can be a weapon on the blitz and looks for the Ravens to exploit the Packers’ protection issues by sending him after Rodgers.
Haven’t most of us around here said how much we do not like seeing Reed blitz? I do not see this as a solution to our pass rushing problems what so ever. Rather, I see it as an act of desperation. A team that has prided itself on getting after the QB for so many years, now is hoping to rely on a ball-hawking Free Safety to be the difference in getting to the QB or not?
If Reed Blitzes tonight, Rodgers is not only not going to be sacked, he is going to launch a 75 yard bomb to Driver right where Reed was supposed to be in coverage.
You have to hate losing more than you love winning.
100% true
Reed is not the pass rush answer and we honestly need him in the backfield to do his his job as safety and make sure we dont give up the long play
I am just surprised that someone who writes for Yahoo! Sports would even come up with something like this. Its more like he is creating a way for us to lose rather than a way to help fix our pass rush.
Send Landry if anything, not Reed please.
You have to hate losing more than you love winning.
i dont like yahoo sports
i read them for a lil while but i just found that they are consistently negative and just plain wrong in many of their opinions. More interested in making a headline than anything
If we need to rely on a safety, much less
the ball hawking Reed to abandon his last line of pass defense in order to sack the QB, we are in a heap of trouble!
I’d rather hear him write that we are unleashing reed to grab a couple of key picks and perhaps block and return a punt for a TD as well. To me, that’s “unleashing” him. At the same time, I hope we don’t define “unleash” as the Steelers’ defined coach Mike Tomlin’s quote, “unleash hell” yesterday!!!
aka 'Rexx'
Good luck tonight Ravens...
The Packers aren’t quite the Chiefs, or the Raiders for that matter, but I think you have a chance. Here’s to hoping Ray Rice goes off. At least he could save my fantasy season.
'I’ve learned to become a flat-liner. There’s a lot out there that’ll make your heart jump if you allow it."
-Coach Tomlin
I know that fantasy feeling
The guy I’m playing has Flacco as his QB and I need to beat him to make the playoffs. Talk about irony!
aka 'Rexx'
Well
I am winning by 7 in one of my leagues and have Derrick Mason tonight while my opponent has Ray Rice.
But in all honesty, if Rice goes for 200+ total yards and 2 TDs and we get the win, I could really care less about fantasy.
Ravens victory > Fantasy Victory every week. But having both is always a pleasurable Sunday.
You have to hate losing more than you love winning.
I like your chances....
Don’t worry, Mason could grab a lot of fourth qtr garbage yards and may even score a TD as Flacco tries to close that 21 pt gap…Rice will just be reduced to a pass protector….
by Rodgers_for_MVP on Dec 7, 2009 3:39 PM EST up reply actions
Think that's bad?
I had both Ed Reed and Greg Jennings on my team and now Reed is out. Not only that, I’m 13 points away from winning this week and was hoping for a Reed pick-six plus yardage from Jennings to get the win and the Ravens win as well.
aka 'Rexx'
Don't let the snow bother you
We are getting snow here, today, in the dairy state but…… it is more snow down south than up north where Green Bay is at. Hell, what we are getting today is nothing to compared to what we probably will get the next 2 days. They (weather people) are talking a foot!
This snow shouldn’t be that bad too the Ravens. They played thru worse. Remember the Jan 96 or 97 snow. Baltimore and surrounding areas got 3 ft. Hell, Glendenning extended my temp tags that expired during that snow, since I couldn’t make it to the DMV in Glen Burnie. So a few inches should be a breeze to our team.
Just remember, sack Rodgers!!
Lonely Ravens fan in Cheese Head country (Watertown, WI)
Um...
The Ravens didn’t even EXIST until 2000…
I lived in Maryland for a while and I remember that storm well. That state was NOT prepared for snow like that. Everything was shut down for an entire week. Was fun or a middle school kid though. :)
The Ravens didnt exist until 2000?
Then who was that team playing from 1996-2000?
You have to hate losing more than you love winning.
Haha
Would we still be the Browns today if we didn’t get that ring?
You have to hate losing more than you love winning.
Well
With the replacement Browns, that complicates things. They would be the Maryland Brown-Ravens or something.
Purple Browns?
'I’ve learned to become a flat-liner. There’s a lot out there that’ll make your heart jump if you allow it."
-Coach Tomlin
by NYSteelersFan4 on Dec 8, 2009 10:12 AM EST up reply actions
I correct myself, who won the 2001 SB, only being a 4 yr aold team??
Lonely Ravens fan in Cheese Head country (Watertown, WI)
Rams won the 1999-2000 Superbowl
We won the 2000-2001 Superbowl.
Tampa won the 2001-2002 Superbowl.
You have to hate losing more than you love winning.
My memory is fading in my old age
I looked at a t-shirt for the date and it said 2001 so I called it the 2001 SB, sorry
Lonely Ravens fan in Cheese Head country (Watertown, WI)
Yea lol
I have this banner in my basement that says “Baltimore Ravens, 2001 Superbowl Champions.” We actually got it for free because the Ravens were not the 2001 champions, they were the 2000 champions. It always goes by the first year in the season, not the new year. So the people who made this banner we have found out it was a misprint and just gave them away for free.
You have to hate losing more than you love winning.
I never saw that banner lol wish i had! The t-shirt I refer to is the Purple Sunday Evermore, I saw it on morning news and had to track it down and get one. Marty Bass knows how to sell an item, don’t he? lmaooo
Lonely Ravens fan in Cheese Head country (Watertown, WI)
It is great.
Ouch, you are in GB? Going to the game tonight?
You have to hate losing more than you love winning.
And that Storm was awsome
I was in 3rd grade I think. You could walk out and walk into the snow and get lost.
You have to hate losing more than you love winning.
my dog err team
went to the bathroom Sunday at Heinz Field………
should be a fun game to watch, you guys control your own destiny with a tough road down the stretch at GB and Pittsburgh the next two weeks. if you get in, you definitely earned it.
Scared of Pitt in two weeks though
IF we make the playoffs, have to either win tonight or at Pitt. Rather just get that needed win out of the way tonight, cause Heinz Field is too tough to win in……………unless you’re the Raiders.
You have to hate losing more than you love winning.
what about that big one in 03?
we got like 3 ft on that one
I moved in 11/01
so I wasn’t there for that. I faced the winter of over 100 inches in ’07 here
Lonely Ravens fan in Cheese Head country (Watertown, WI)
No, we are talking about the even bigger storm in 96
We got around 4 feet of snow out of no where. In 03’ we were at least prepared for it. I remember in 03’ it snowed non-stop for 3 days. We had around 2-3 feet of snow and a week off my freshman year of highschool.
You have to hate losing more than you love winning.
Don't think the snow will affect us too much tonight, if it does in fact snow.
Luckily, we got about 4 inches here in Baltimore on Saturday and the team was able to get out on the field during the storm and practice. So that will definitely help.
Imagine getting hit by a snowball from Joe. Might lose a tooth.
You have to hate losing more than you love winning.
Convoluted
The Green Bay Packers are considered a 3.5 point favorite tonight. For a home team to just be picked to win by a field goal is the oddsmakers way of saying this is an even game.
The considered part was pretty strange to me. They aren’t considered a 3.5 favorite as much as they actually are. You are right that the home field advantage normally makes for about 3 points in the spread and that these two teams are pretty comparable on a talent level…but the game is still in Green Bay. As far as the odds makers are concerned, this is more of a 3.5 favorite game than a pick ’em (simply because it is).
As for the cherry picking bonanza with the whole Packers only beat the Cowboys who are 2-2 in their last four and gave up 38 to Tampa…the Packers are 7-4 and do have the number 1 yardage defense in the NFL. I would be surprised to see the Ravens put up 27 points in a sub-freezing game in Green Bay.
All that said, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Ravens win. Ray Rice is going to get his yardage because he’s amazing and I think Baltimore will get around 17-20. What I think will decide this game is the Packers’ pass protection/Raven’s rush. When Rodgers has the time to throw he racks up crazy stats and wins the game. If Chad Clifton misses a large amount of this game, it is going to get ugly quick (for Packer fans like me).
Healthy Clifton: 24-17 Packers
Clifton misses much of the game: 20-17 Ravens
Fair analysis, DiceMan
Agree with the Ravens pass rush vs. Packers pass protection. #1 defense not too compelling considering the teams you’ve earned that #1 against. Going back a long time to 1999, the St. Louis Rams were #1 against the run that year. It wasn’t that they were so good at that, but their offense was so incredible that everyone had to pass against them to play catch up and abandoned the run game. They were rated #1 but really weren’t that good. Not saying you’re not, but the stats were padded against HORRIBLE teams for the most part. Cedric Benson put up over 140 and AP almost got 100 in the second game. So, I think we can run and pass on you, but ten again, it will all come down to our pass pressure to decide the game.
aka 'Rexx'
Sure
I get the Rams #1 run defense being due to their “greatest show on turf”, but I was not talking about run defense, I was talking about total defense. Yes, the Packers have not had the toughest schedule, but they haven’t had the easiest either. Ok, Benson and AP had good games…they have had a lot of those this year. Gore, Jackson, Smith twice, Forte, the Dallas ensemble. The teams the Packers have faced have been more short on defense and passing games than run offense. HORRIBLE in all caps seems like a huge exaggeration to me. I mean, what makes the Ravens schedule so great? Games against the 6-6 Steelers?
Most teams haven’t played the Vikings twice. Everyone loves to discount the Cowboys win because discounting the Cowboys is trendy this time of year. But the fact is, the Packers aren’t a worse team because they haven’t had a super-tough schedule. They still have the same personnel.
I read where Chad Clifton is listed as probable for the game tonight. Suggs is listed as doubtful and Ed Reed is listed as questionable with an ankle and a hip. A Ravens secondary that is already suspect an absent Ed Reed at Safety will not bode well for the Ravens against a potent Packers offense. Green Bay is tough to beat at home this time of year. No Suggs has put a huge dent in the Ravens pass rush. Green Bay should be able to hit some plays in the air attack. Lambeau has a way of being friendly to the Pack.
Green Bay 28
Baltimore 17
by Buccaneer 4 Life on Dec 7, 2009 1:32 PM EST reply actions
can't watch the game tonight
it’s starting far too late for me, but i hope you guys do and i get to wake up to a nice win tomorrow morning! go ravens!
good luck Ravens
should be a long night for Rodgers and his “44 sacks allowed” O-Line
3 yards and a pile of dust
Ravens Pass Rush?
And exactly how many sacks do the Ravens have since Terrell Suggs has been injured? Just as many sacks as I have which is 0. Many of those sacks came after Chad Clifton got injured. Getting Clifton back is a boost the offensive line. Ed Reed on a bad ankle and hip against an explosive passing offense could spell trouble. With an already suspect secondary for the Ravens that includes a undrafted rookie and Foxworth. Green Bay will max protect in order to give Rodgers time to throw, running 3 WR and leaving the TE in to protect.
by Buccaneer 4 Life on Dec 7, 2009 2:27 PM EST reply actions
Mind I remind you....
The Ravens defensive numbers are misleading. I am not making a big deal out of GB’s #1 defense either, because they probably look better in the stat sheets than they are, but check out these numbers for the Ravens:
This D has made a living hawking the ball. It has always led or been near the top of NFL in INTs. Not so much this year: middle of the pack 12 INTs, of which 6 have come against the hopeless Quinn and Anderson.
While the Packers O-line is quite suspect to allowing the sacks, the Ravens are among NFLs worst Ds in sacking the QBs. Only 21 sacks to its credit, 27th in the NFL, a quarter of which came against the lame-duck Browns QBs. Dixon last week was not even touched once.
This defense cannot stop prolific offenses. They have allowed close to or over 400 yds to Colts, Bengals, Patriots, Chargers, and the Vikings. To their credit, they did pick Manning twice but the way the game came down, Peyton did not need to score 30 pts on the Ravens. I believe he could have scored as much, had it been required to win the game.
I predict another dismal game for the Baltimore D. While Suggs will not be there to pressure Rodgers and an improved O-line, Ed Reed is just one weapon to make a difference in takeaways. Him and the other safety Landry are good, but the Raven CBs cannot contain the speedy GB WRs. Should Reed and Landry move to help the corners or even worse, should they be required to move up to put pressure on Rodgers, I believe Rodgers will exploit that all night with vertical passes to Driver and the tight ends. Just don’t see how the Ravens can come up with a good defensive effort against this offense, too many holes to cover and not enough talent.
Hey, a prediction is no sure thing
Based on the above facts, I’m predicting the Birds will get killed tonight. Could I be wrong? Yeah, absolutely. Stranger things have happened, like some QB named Gradkowski putting a 21 spot on the Steelers in one quarter. And I will be back and give you props.
But I’m affraid numbers don’t lie. If the Ravens are to win this game, it would be more like a 40-37 win. I don’t think the Ravens can score that many points in Green Bay.
by Rodgers_for_MVP on Dec 7, 2009 3:07 PM EST up reply actions
i just wanted to make sure youd be back
some of the other comments you left before looked more like you were just trying to start some stuff rather than offer genuine insight
No man...
This is not Rex Ryan’s D. Sorry, but you have to admit it. It can’t intercept, it can’t stop the run anymore, it can’t blitz the QB. Numbers don’t lie, sorry to sound like a broken record. If this were last year’s D, the losses against Cinci (first game) and Minnesota would have been wins. Hell, even against NE and the Colts maybe.
I think this team could be the sixth seed in the AFC even if they lose tonight due to its relatively easy schedule but I wouldn’t be thrilled about the long term success this year.
by Rodgers_for_MVP on Dec 7, 2009 3:22 PM EST up reply actions
Lol
And your numbers in the wins have come against teams who have a combined record of 22-50. So don’t your numbers talk all that smack for you.
You can give us crap about playing these teams and getting stats, when you have gotten alot of your stats from playing teams like Detroit (twice) St Louis, and Cleveland.
Dont even start.
You have to hate losing more than you love winning.
again, I am not making out D #1
What I’m saying is that our offense can score a lot of pts against anyone, including the Ravens, who are not that good defensively. The numbers are there for you to see. Now it’s up to you if you can keep your end of the bargain in a shootout and I don’t think so.
by Rodgers_for_MVP on Dec 7, 2009 3:48 PM EST up reply actions
That is why we play tonight
I think we can destroy you, you think you can destroy us.
Gonna be a fun one.
You have to hate losing more than you love winning.
i really hope we win tonight
it will be a humbling experience for mr. mvp.
if no, i dont talk smack but id hate to admit that his team is better.
Like I said...
We put up the points we were supposed to…Rodgers played maybe his worst game all year and still torched your ass for 3 TDs…Flacco, well he’s another Kyle Boller who just had a good rookie year
Ravens, you still need a QB I think
by Rodgers_for_MVP on Dec 8, 2009 12:23 AM EST up reply actions
Ravens D at a Glance
Nicely put Rodgers for MVP. Another reason for the fall off on on defense is in years past they were able to draw up creative blitzes to get pressure on the QB and leave the CB 1 on 1. In past years the CBs were Samari Rolle and Chris McAllister. This year Rolle and McAllister are not going to be lined up at CB, they brought in Fabian Washington for 2009. Washington is now on IR. The Ravens appear to be incredibly thin and suspect at CB which for a explosive offense could spell disaster on the road in a hostile environment. Rodgers will try to exploit the secondary with Jennings and Driver and should have success.
by Buccaneer 4 Life on Dec 7, 2009 3:07 PM EST reply actions
your forgetting our diamond in the ruff
Webb has been playing well and although he is young, he’s still very good and learning a lot every week
diamond in the ruff
Would you feel as confident with Webb as you did with Rolle and McAllister going against Driver and Jennings 1 on 1 with an absent pass rush as of late?
by Buccaneer 4 Life on Dec 7, 2009 3:21 PM EST reply actions
Uh, no, I wouldn't
The secondary unfortunately has been our weak spot all season. Also unfortunately, our pass rush has been pretty non-existent too… If the D can just steer the same course it has the last few weeks and the O side can put up some points, I think we’re going to be okay. We’re better than we’re playing, that’s for sure. Tonight we have to go out and prove it! Go Ravens!!!!
hey
If our secondary and defense overall can hold Manning to only 1 TD pass and their offense to 17 points, why can’t we do that tonight? Oh yea, because Rodgers is god and Packers are the best team this year for sure, according to most Packer fans.
You have to hate losing more than you love winning.
Not the way I see it....
The course of the game made Peyton go for the FG. He could have driven the team for a TD if he needed six.
by Rodgers_for_MVP on Dec 7, 2009 3:50 PM EST up reply actions
I love that every one makes this league out to be a “coulda, shoulda, woulda” league.
You have to hate losing more than you love winning.
I wish...
Brackett had not INT-ed Flacco and you had scored that TD so that you could see for yourself what Peyton would have done with that 2 minute drill…maybe you’ll get another chance to find out in the playoffs if you can get past Bengals on the third try
by Rodgers_for_MVP on Dec 7, 2009 3:56 PM EST up reply actions
Of course not
But there is nothing we can do about Rolle and C-Mac anymore. So as of right now, I do however feel more comfortable with Webb on Driver/Jennings than Washington on those two. But its still gonna be damn tough to stop those two. I have always thought Driver is one of the top 2nd WR in the league. Dude makes play after play. I try to get him on my fantasy team each year.
You have to hate losing more than you love winning.
Bruce
You might need to start an open game thread. This one is starting to fill up rather quickly.
You have to hate losing more than you love winning.
Ravens vs Manning
Sure, that could happen. The Ravens played the Colts in Baltimore also, outside as compared to the Colts being an indoor team. Not taking anything away from that performance. Home cooking does make a difference when you are playing against an indoor/dome team.
by Buccaneer 4 Life on Dec 7, 2009 3:52 PM EST reply actions
Ask Brees how it went in Washington
Ask Brees how it went in Washington. He was lucky to come out with a W, took a Meachum miracle.
by Buccaneer 4 Life on Dec 7, 2009 3:56 PM EST reply actions
As stated earlier
The game still has to be played and no statistic is going to define the outcome. Eleven players will line up on both sides of the ball. 60 minutes of play will take place and the team with the highest score wins… Pretty simple, huh? Go Ravens!
Well boys...
I got to Tivo this one. I got to be up at 6 am and I am still trying to overcome a bit of the flu. If you ever wondered why people in California act like the world revolves around them….MNF is an afternoon event for them.
"The ball always seems to find Ed Reed...The man is a menace"
Hi everyone
I am an Eagles fan but I have interest in Baltimore winning this game. For one, I’d like Green Bay to fall a game behind us in the wild card race. For another, I’m facing Donald Driver in fantasy, and as long as he scores less than 20.5 points, I will make my playoffs.
Does anyone know if Ed Reed is playing?
Thanks for the support
Ed Reed is indeed playing and will make an impact in this game. I expect at least once interception from Reed when Rodgers is getting pressured by Ray Lewis.
You have to hate losing more than you love winning.
That's good
He is one of the most exciting players in football.
Last time I watched the Ravens, I was on the verge of tears. That, of course, was the 36-7 shellacking you guys laid on us that got McNabb benched.
Never mind that
Just heard breaking news that Ed Reed is out tonight
You have to hate losing more than you love winning.
Should Be A Good Game
Thankfully, my Broncos have some breathing room against you guys. Good thing, because we might need all the cushion we can get. Indy’s coming up.
Brad James
OK, I am offline til after the game
GOOOO Ravens!!!!!!!!!!!!! do it double-trouble!!! (Ray & Ray) I will be cheering every score we get and probably getting dirty looks from the rest of the room!!! lol
Lonely Ravens fan in Cheese Head country (Watertown, WI)
Well, so much for this game
Ed Reed is now out for the game. This is probably the difference in the win. Gonna need a miracle.
You have to hate losing more than you love winning.
I say put Webb in Reeds spot, honestly
He has experience playing safety in college and is a great athlete that he could maybe do some good things back there.
With Nakamura out and Zbikowski being more of a SS, I think putting Webb back there might be a good idea. Or KJ Gerard?
FML. Why did this have to happen.
You have to hate losing more than you love winning.
Greg Jennings got beat up by his wife and crashed his car
So he’s not playing. Good news for oyu guys
Really, I think you are thinking about tiger woods
He got "Driver"ed in the head with a nine iron.
When Chuck Norris dives into water he doesn't get wet, The water gets Chuck Norris.
Chuck Norris has counted to infinity....... Twice.
When God said let there be light, Chuck Norris said," Say Please."
Chuck Norris can sneeze with his eyes open.
There is no theory of evolution. Just a list of creatures Chuck Norris has allowed to live.
Hey Steelers fans:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOphGZZrE44&feature=related
by Baltimore Warrior on Dec 7, 2009 8:24 PM EST up reply actions
and was burned for a TD
Push, at best.
aka 'Rexx'
by Bruce Raffel on Dec 8, 2009 12:22 AM EST up reply actions
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