playoff question
by Ravensfan52 on Dec 14, 2009 1:36 PM EST
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i am trying to think about all the likely playoff scenarios. somebody help me and make sure i got this right. lets say jacksonville(9-7) loses a game and they are totally out of it. denver(11-5), baltimore(10-6), and miami(10-6) all win out. the patriots(10-6) lose 1 game. that would put the dolphins as the division winner in the east because they would either have a better division record or better conference record. denver would be in the 1st wildcard spot because they would be 11-5. that means the 2 teams left would be the patriots and ravens for the 2nd spot and they would beat us out because of the head to head.
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I think the Bengals will lose the rest of their games. We have 1 obstacle- Pitt.. If Cam does not play down to them and we take the fight to them, we will win the division.
Cincy has struggled all year at QB. They surprised everyone with their run game and improved D but the league is onto them. They have been exposed and, most of all, they carry the seeds of doubt in the back of their heads. They are wating for their collapse. 2 winning seasons in 19 years will do that to you.
I believe so to....
If K.C. can pull one out the ass, then they will lose the rest of their games. Also, People better stop doubting Chicago. Jay Cutler can turn it on at anytime, and when he’s hot, he is one of the best.
FEAR THE NEVERMORE DEFENSE!!!!!!!!!!!!
Cincy hostsw KC
at home week 16, so that ain’t gonna happen. Bengals will win the AFC North. We have to hope the Broncos lose at Philly week 16 and that will give them the same 10-6 record as us but we will get in with the tie-breaker. Better hope Dolphins lose Sunday at Tennessee so they will be out as well and Pats will win AFC East. Jets host Indy week 16, but Colts may be resting their players and lose then, if not this Thursday. New York hosts Cincy in week 17 and if they win the division, then Pats get in over us, but if Jets finish with same record as us, we get in with better conference record.
Got it now?
aka 'Rexx'
by Bruce Raffel on Dec 15, 2009 9:20 AM EST up reply actions
Any other team in the NFL North
that had that schedule left and only needed one game…then yes, I would say it was almost be a given that they will get the one win they need. Bengals peaked really early this season. Not to knock their wins but right now, I would be concerned if I was a Bengals fan. Palmer looks like he is playing hurt. I’ve never been sold on the idea that his arm just healed fully with rest. I don’t believe that a team like the Pats would just allow Tom Brady to sleep it off and hope for the best. I would also be concerned with Cedric Benson’s post game comments where he came off more pissed he didn’t get 100 yards against the Vikings than the team not getting the win necessary to secure the division. The Bengals are just playing terrible right now and no one wants their team to end up limping into the playoffs.
This isn’t to say the Ravens are giving to win any of their games remaining, just as its not that the Bengals will loose all theirs. The Bengals better make it into the playoffs…because thanks to them sweeping the division, Mike Brown will never, ever allow someone to come in as GM and get him to stop running the team on cheap, damaged goods.
"The ball always seems to find Ed Reed...The man is a menace"
by UMBC Oriole fan on Dec 15, 2009 9:35 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah, but
its the Chiefs and at home. Somehow, I just can’t see them choking even that bad, much less the other two games as well.
aka 'Rexx'
by Bruce Raffel on Dec 15, 2009 2:54 PM EST up reply actions
I'm just saying...
the Bengals have a history of disappointing. Until they prove to me that they can finish, I can’t give them the benefit of the doubt.
"The ball always seems to find Ed Reed...The man is a menace"
by UMBC Oriole fan on Dec 15, 2009 5:31 PM EST up reply actions
After sweeping both us and Pitt.,
They have my vote for real, but suspect in the post season. I’d love another shot at them.
aka 'Rexx'
by Bruce Raffel on Dec 15, 2009 6:22 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah but he
is also his own worse enemy at times. He believes that his arm can overcome any coverage. Cutler definitely has the physical abilities, but at times, he becomes an utter headcase. I also agree that the Chicago game is not a given by any means.
"The ball always seems to find Ed Reed...The man is a menace"
by UMBC Oriole fan on Dec 15, 2009 9:22 AM EST up reply actions
If we play like we did against Detroit
and even Pittsburgh, that will be good enough to win. If not, then….who knows.
aka 'Rexx'
by Bruce Raffel on Dec 15, 2009 2:55 PM EST up reply actions
Caldwell said all healthy starters will START
Really doesn’t mean that they will play the whole game.
FEAR THE NEVERMORE DEFENSE!!!!!!!!!!!!
I heard as little as
two series for Manning and others. Ouch!
aka 'Rexx'
by Bruce Raffel on Dec 15, 2009 9:20 AM EST up reply actions
Well when we beat you
There will be no doubt about the tiebreaker, haha.
The Hell that Tomlin & the Steelers have unleashed on me this December is indescribable.
Man, what happened to the Steelers. Tomlin might really stink. Maybe he was riding a team last year that was already prepared for him (like Ralphy Fridge did with Vanderlins guys). Maybe he can’t go it alone. It may take Pitt. years to right the ship. Ben’s in pain and will never be 80% again. Ward wants to retire. No O-line. No secondary. Troy will never be the same with a knee injury. Ariens is tired of being the scape goat for Ben’s unwillingness to throw the ball away and take sacks. Bad days ahead for Pitt. Ravens 37 Pitt 13.
I don't think its fair
to judge Tomlin for this one bad season. Just as it wouldn’t be fair to give him all the credit for the Superbowl victory. I don’t think it really matters anyway because the Rooney (and this I think is a credit to their success over the years) do not switch coaches rapidly. If just finding the perfect coach was all it took for success in the league, eventually the Lions would have struck gold by now.
I mean look at our coach. Last year, A LOT of things bounced our way. Harbaugh cannot get all the credit for that. Just as many things haven’t gone our way…again, he cannot control those things, only adjust to them.
"The ball always seems to find Ed Reed...The man is a menace"
by UMBC Oriole fan on Dec 15, 2009 9:40 AM EST up reply actions
I think the first tiebreaker between divisions is conference record
not head to head. Head to head is the first tiebreaker between teams in the same division. So I think it would depend on NE’s conference record before it got to their head to head victory over us. I’m not certain but I think that’s how it works.
Jioe Flaacco, Hon!!! "He’s like a live JUGS machine."
From NFL.com
NFL Tiebreaking Procedures
The six postseason participants from each conference are seeded as follows:
The division champion with the best record.
The division champion with the second-best record.
The division champion with the third-best record.
The division champion with the fourth-best record.
The Wild Card club with the best record.
The Wild Card club with the second-best record.
The following procedures will be used to break standings ties for postseason playoffs and to determine regular-season schedules.
NOTE: Tie games count as one-half win and one-half loss for both clubs.
TO BREAK A TIE WITHIN A DIVISION
If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.
Two Clubs
Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best net points in common games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss
Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated during any step, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of the two-club format).
Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best net points in common games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss
TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM
If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.
If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker.
If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.
Two Clubs
Head-to-head, if applicable.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best net points in conference games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss.
Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)
Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best net points in conference games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss
When the first Wild-Card team has been identified, the procedure is repeated to name the second Wild-Card, i.e., eliminate all but the highest-ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. In situations where three or more teams from the same division are involved in the procedure, the original seeding of the teams remains the same for subsequent applications of the tie breaker if the top-ranked team in that division qualifies for a Wild-Card berth.
DETERMINING HOME-FIELD PRIORITY
To determine home-field priority among division titlists, apply Wild-Card tie breakers.
To determine home-field priority for Wild-Card qualifiers, apply division tie breakers (if teams are from the same division) or Wild-Card tie breakers (if teams are from different divisions).
TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURE FOR SELECTION MEETING
If two or more clubs are tied in the selection order, the strength-of-schedule tie breaker is applied, subject to the following exceptions for playoff clubs:
The Super Bowl winner is last and the Super Bowl loser next-to-last.
Any non-Super Bowl playoff club involved in a tie moves down in drafting priority within its tied segment as follows:
For a loss inthe Wild-Card playoffs, a plus factor of one-half.
For participation, win or lose, in the Divisional Playoffs, a plus factor of one.
For a loss in the conference championship Game, a plus factor of one.
Clubs with the best won-lost-tied records after these steps are applied will drop to their appropriate spots at the bottom of the tied segment. In no case will the above process move a club lower than the segmentin which it was initially tied.
Tied clubs will alternate priority throughout the 7 rounds of the draft. In case of a tie involving three or more teams, the club with priority in the first round will drop to the bottom of the tied segment in the second round and move its way back to the top of the segment in each succeeding round.
If any ties cannot be broken by strength of schedule, the divisional or conference tie breakers, whichever are applicable, are applied. Any ties that still exist are broken by a coin flip.
Jioe Flaacco, Hon!!! "He’s like a live JUGS machine."
Talk about a long post!
So head-to-head takes care of Denver. We have better conference records than either NY or Miami, so that’s that. Jags have better conference record than us, so they’d get it with the same 10-6 record if that happens (Go Colts!). If we win out, then I expect it to be Jax as #5 seed and us as #6.
That would send us to Cincy and Jax to NE if the Pats hold on, which I expect them to do. Wouldn’t everyone want another shot at the Bengals.
aka 'Rexx'
by Bruce Raffel on Dec 15, 2009 2:59 PM EST up reply actions
YES!
I swear, I think Cincy’s a fluke.. I can’t grasp Benson being that good. As long as we bottle him up, Carson is having a below average year. I’m confident in our team winning that match-up. We just didn’t play well the last two times. If we lose three in a row to a division rival again.. I will break my TV. (not really)
wildcard
for wild card if there is only 2 teams with the same record going for one spot than head to head comes first over division record. so im saying we could get pushed out by new england if miami wins the division and jax loses one game. denver winning out would push them to 11-5 which would secure them at the 5th spot.
No way Denver wins out
Denver will definitely lose at Philly, giving us the same record and the tie-breaker if we win out. Jax will probably lose now vs. Indy Thursday as it appears Peyton will probably play most of the game (Go Colts!). Looks like it all comes down to the Steelers game which is the only thing that matters – after the Bears win of course!
aka 'Rexx'
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