AFC North schedule analysis: Bengals have edge

by Steelin on Nov 3, 2009 11:36 AM EST Comment 30 comments

When the 2009 schedules were released, the AFC North caught a break by matching up against the weak AFC West and mediocre NFC North. In fact, the Steelers' schedule was rated the 4th easiest in the NFL, the Ravens' schedule was 5th easiest, and the Bengals' was 11th (mainly because they had to play the Ravens and Steelers twice each). These ratings were based on opponents' 2008 winning percentages.

At nearly the midpoint of the 2009 season, things are not looking so easy, due to the improvement of teams such as the Vikings, Packers, Broncos, and the Bengals themselves. Let's take a look at how the schedules are rated now, based on 2009 opponent winning percentage (opp pct), and more important, which AFC North team has the most favorable schedule remaining.

RAVENS	Week	Opponent	Opp Pct	Score	Result
	1	vs Chiefs	0.143	38-24	W
	2	at Chargers	0.571	31-26	W
	3	vs Browns	0.125	34-3	W
	4	at Patriots	0.714	21-27	L
	5	vs Bengals	0.714	14-17	L
	6	at Vikings	0.875	31-33	L
	7	BYE
	8	vs Broncos	0.857	30-7	W
	9	at Bengals	0.714	-	-
	10	at Browns	0.125	-	-
	11	vs Colts	1.000	-	-
	12	vs Steelers	0.714	-	-
	13	at Packers	0.571	-	-
	14	vs Lions	0.143	-	-
	15	vs Bears	0.571	-	-
	16	at Steelers	0.714	-	-
	17	at Raiders	0.250	-	-

		Overall	0.550
		To date	0.571
		Remaining	0.534

The Ravens' schedule has become much more difficult at 0.550. In addition to the aforementioned teams, the Ravens must play the undefeated Colts and have already lost to the Patriots. Having completed the brutal (0.571) portion of their schedule, the Ravens now face the merely difficult (0.534) portion, which includes the Colts, the Bengals, two games against the Steelers, and a road game against the 4-3 Packers. So far, the Ravens are 2-3 against tough opponents; if they continue at the same pace, they could finish 10-6.

STEELERS	Week	Opponent	Opp Pct	Score	Result
	1	vs Titans	0.143	13-10	W
	2	at Bears	0.571	14-17	L
	3	at Bengals	0.714	20-23	L
	4	vs Chargers	0.571	38-28	W
	5	at Lions	0.143	28-20	W
	6	vs Browns	0.125	27-14	W
	7	vs Vikings	0.875	27-17	W
	8	BYE
	9	at Broncos	0.857	-	-
	10	vs Bengals	0.714	-	-
	11	at Chiefs	0.143	-	-
	12	at Ravens	0.571	-	-
	13	vs Raiders	0.250	-	-
	14	at Browns	0.125	-	-
	15	vs Packers	0.571	-	-
	16	vs Ravens	0.571	-	-
	17	at Dolphins	0.429	-	-

		Overall	0.461
		To date	0.449
		Remaining	0.470

The Steelers' opponents had a 0.434 winning percentage in 2008, but so far in 2009, they have a 0.461 percentage. Despite having 12 opponents in common with the Ravens, the Steelers' schedule is softened by the collapse of the Titans and, to a lesser extent, the Dolphins. So far this season, the Steelers are 3-0 against lousy teams and 2-2 against teams with a winning record, both losses coming on the road. If the Steelers maintain this pattern, they will finish 12-4 or 11-5.

BENGALS	Week	Opponent	Opp Pct	Score	Result
	1	vs Broncos	0.857	7-12	L
	2	at Packers	0.571	31-24	W
	3	vs Steelers	0.714	23-20	W
	4	at Browns	0.125	23-20	W
	5	at Ravens	0.571	17-14	W
	6	vs Texans	0.625	17-28	L
	7	vs Bears	0.571	45-10	W
	8	BYE
	9	vs Ravens	0.571	-	-
	10	at Steelers	0.714	-	-
	11	at Raiders	0.250	-	-
	12	vs Browns	0.125	-	-
	13	vs Lions	0.143	-	-
	14	at Vikings	0.875	-	-
	15	at Chargers	0.571	-	-
	16	vs Chiefs	0.143	-	-
	17	at Jets	0.500	-	-

		Overall	0.495
		To date	0.576
		Remaining	0.432

The Bengals schedule, originally rated the toughest of the three, now appears easier than the Ravens' schedule at 0.495. At 0.576, the Bengals have faced a crushing schedule to date, with six of seven games against opponents with winning records. Impressively, the Bengals have compiled a 4-2 record in those six games. Their schedule gets considerably easier at 0.432, with only four opponents having winning records, although three of those games are on the road. Even so, if the Bengals continue at this pace, they could easily finish at 12-4.

	Steelers	Ravens	Bengals
Original Rating	0.434	0.438	0.465
Current Rating	0.461	0.550	0.495
Games To Date	0.449	0.571	0.576
Games Remaining	0.470	0.534	0.432

As this summary chart shows, all three teams face considerably more difficult schedules than originally thought, but the Ravens clearly have the most difficult schedule overall and the most difficult remaining schedule. The Steelers still have a relatively easy schedule, but the Bengals have the advantage of being 5-2 with the easiest remaining schedule.

P.S. Yes, I'm a Steelers fan visiting your site. I'm not saying which team is better or even which will win the division. I am just presenting data and saying what will happen if the teams continue at their current pace. Based on the above analysis, I wish the Ravens good luck Sunday against the Bengals.

The opinions posted here are those of the administrator of this blog and his loyal readers. They are in no way official comments from the team, and should not be misconstued as such, even though he thinks he could do just as well or even a better job!

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Comments

Interesting numbers, but...

…we all know the games are played on the field, not on paper. If they were played on paper, we would have beaten the Bengals and you (Steelers) would have beaten them as well. But that’s why they play the games, as Herm Edwards says, “You play to win the game!”

We’ll see how these numbers stack up at the end of the season. Somehow I doubt the percentages will be relevant come then.

aka 'Rexx'

by Bruce Raffel on Nov 3, 2009 12:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Games will be decided on the field

No doubt. But the point is that the Bengals have an easier route. The Ravens have a tough road to overcome, but if they keep playing like they did against Denver, it could work out.

by Steelin on Nov 3, 2009 4:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

But were the stats based on

last year’s record on on this year’s? Either way, the stats are not significant to the reality of each game.

aka 'Rexx'

by Bruce Raffel on Nov 3, 2009 7:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Stats in the post are based on 2009 records

Updated through Sunday’s games. While I agree that a team’s record can overstate its ability (e.g. Broncos), it can understate it as well. This far into the season, it tends to balance out. Are you really saying it is just as easy to beat the Colts as it is to beat the Titans?

by Steelin on Nov 4, 2009 11:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not for us

but the Titans did finish in 1st place last year which is why the Steelers get them and the Dolphins while we luck out with the Colts and Pats.

But the team records may easily change significantly by the time we play each game next in line so the numbers will have to be updated after each game, which is my point of irrelevance.

aka 'Rexx'

by Bruce Raffel on Nov 4, 2009 4:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

…while we luck out with the Colts and Pats.

I LoL’ed.

Water covers 2/3 of the Earth's surface. Ed Reed covers the rest.

by Ampallang on Nov 4, 2009 7:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Shout out to my Ravens fans!

I am in a football pool on my job. I was wondering if I could get your opinions on who is going to win in week #9. I am putting my money on the Ravens they played so well last week. I knew that they were going to win. I also know that they can beat the Bungels this game too. Hey guys let me know what you think?

Thanks,

by Lee marie on Nov 4, 2009 8:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

bengal fan here…..don’t lay a baltimore beatdown, please.

There’s one factor you missed, our team name. The Bengals have more fluky crap happen than any team in pro sports (usually their own fault).

This has been an interesting season, no doubt. I’m really looking forward to watching the two Ravens v Steelers contests, as they’re typically excellent games for even a non-fan of either franchise. Smashmouth football at its finest. Thankfully, Marvin Lewis has attempted to execute that style of play this season.

The best division in the NFL is still very much up for grabs. Hopefully the fight to the finish remains a good one.

3 yards and a pile of dust

by Hudepohl Dey on Nov 3, 2009 12:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

As good as you've been this season to make it a three team race,

as long as Cleveland is in the AFC North, we will never be “the best division in football!”

aka 'Rexx'

by Bruce Raffel on Nov 3, 2009 4:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I disagree

The Steelers, Ravens, and Bengals are good enough to make up for Cleveland’s crappiness. Seriously. These three teams can beat any team at any given week in the league. What division could possibly be better?

by WhoDeyDerek on Nov 3, 2009 6:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Currently

The NFC East is still the best. Last year you could add the NFC South and AFC South.

aka 'Rexx'

by Bruce Raffel on Nov 3, 2009 7:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The AFC North and NFC East are the best divisions in football.

3 yards and a pile of dust

by Hudepohl Dey on Nov 4, 2009 1:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Marvin just needed a runningback with a little attitude and size to compete in this league. Not an RB who gives up when Ray smashes them. Benson might be for real and it may very well have been Chicago’s approach that hurt him. The thing about the AFC North is that you can’t rely on passing and deep balls. The games get very tight and short. RB’s and escaping QB’s rule.

by raven on Nov 3, 2009 6:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

nice post Steelin. thanks. at least our 2 against you are ahead of us. we control our fate. we may as well find out this year what the real deal is. our young guys are getting a good stress test. no matter what happens we will have played the best and will use the experience in the playoffs or next year.

out of all these games my biggest concern in Indy. Manning runs the game like no other.

by raven on Nov 3, 2009 6:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

yeah he's had our number

but i feel like we’re due for a win against them. I feel like we might drop the monday-nighter in GB

"Just win baby. Yeah, I stole that."
--Jon Gruden

by jackmca on Nov 4, 2009 12:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm planning on attending.

Anyone want to join me at the “Frozen Tundra of Lambeau Field?”

aka 'Rexx'

by Bruce Raffel on Nov 4, 2009 9:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No thanks Bruce……to cold in Wisconsin for me. Who knows it might even snow.

by Lee marie on Nov 5, 2009 7:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Gotta experience

The Frozen Tundra as part of my “Bucket List!”

aka 'Rexx'

by Bruce Raffel on Nov 5, 2009 9:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You know thats a Northwest flight….Might end up in Canada.

I prefer not to fly when wings need de-icing and Ronnie from Winnebago is applying the chemicals while wishing he was back inside with his hot cocoa.

by raven on Nov 6, 2009 1:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

hey Bruce-

You might end up like John Candy (MaLor) and Steve Martin in Planes, Trains and Automoblies heading back from there. At least your hands will be warm during your lay over : )

by raven on Nov 6, 2009 1:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

This strength of schedule thing is really about TWO GAMES based on last year’s record.

The AFC North play each other twice plus the AFC West and NFC North =14 games

Ravens get the dolts & Pats
Stillers get "fins and Titans
Bengals get Texans and Jets

That is the only difference !

Veni, Vidi, Vici - Julius Caesar 47 BC

by PSU RAVEN on Nov 3, 2009 6:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Not quite

You are correct about the way the scheduling works within the division. Each team, however, plays its schedule in a different order. Now that each team has played 7 games, the important thing is the upcoming 9 games. In my post, the “Games Remaining” stat shows the winning percentage of those 9 remaining opponents. For those 9 games, the Ravens play a significantly more difficult set of opponents than the Bengals.

by Steelin on Nov 4, 2009 11:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Based on records today

Wait for week 12 and the percentages can be considerably different if one team or so goes on a big winning or losing streak between now and then.

aka 'Rexx'

by Bruce Raffel on Nov 4, 2009 4:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I gree Steelin, since the Ravens won the Super Bowl their schedule has been difficult.

by Lee marie on Nov 5, 2009 8:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Actually...

The biggest factor left is that the Ravens and Steelers still haven’t played each other. If one team or the other gets owned (i.e. loses both games), then that team has an extremely tough road to the playoffs, basically dependent on what other teams do, and the Bengals comparatively have a much easier road to a divisional win or wild card berth.

by The Dealio on Nov 4, 2009 2:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

whatever

this stuff doesn’t even matter. play the games on the schedule and win as many as possible. there’s no use in looking at who has the hardest schedules or anything like that. the games are what they are.

"Just win baby. Yeah, I stole that."
--Jon Gruden

by jackmca on Nov 4, 2009 3:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Tie Breakers matter

Of course the teams play to win every game, but tie-breakers make all the difference in a close race, Just saying…

by The Dealio on Nov 4, 2009 4:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

sure. i’m just saying that’s its all pretty much speculation at this point and even if the Ravens schedule is harder, they’re just going to have to deal with it and try to make the playoffs anyway. It’s not like their in the locker room whining like “oh no! why does cincy have a scheduling advantage?”

"Just win baby. Yeah, I stole that."
--Jon Gruden

by jackmca on Nov 5, 2009 12:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Who you play matters

It’s not like we can predict who’s gonna win the division based on strength of schedule, but the teams you play against definitely matter. It gives us a picture of the odds, but it’s not like a crystal ball. Let’s just say, that I’m glad the Bengals don’t have to play the Steelers twice more this year and the Colts once.

This is our year!

by Carsonorbust on Nov 4, 2009 8:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

obviously the schedule matters, what i’m saying is that the conversation doesn’t matter. the schedule is what it is and there’s no use in worrying about it now. you just gotta go out there and hope for wins every sunday, whether is tough or easy.

"Just win baby. Yeah, I stole that."
--Jon Gruden

by jackmca on Nov 5, 2009 12:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs