It's just my opinion, but...
by Rexx
on Sep 26, 2008 9:32 AM EDT
19 comments
...I heard that the Pittsburgh Steelers' rookie Rashard Mendenhall's nickname is "Delicious" and there is no man who should be called that!
...I expect Mendenhall to get an earful from Bart Scott, Terrell Suggs and Ray Lewis at the bottom of a pileup about his cute nickname.
...this summer I had the Ravens getting smoked in this coming Monday night game by the Steelers, while now I am still undecided about the outcome.
...while I realize it would be a huge task to win in Pittsburgh, on Monday Night Football, it definitely is possible and maybe even probable.
...most every time the Ravens get on the national stage, they pull out a stinker of a game and self-destruct.
...this team doesn't seem like the kind that will do that and might force the Steelers to fill that role.
...I see no way for the Steelers offensive line to rise up from their terrible performance last week against the Eagles and do significantly better this week.
...there are a lot of similarities between the Eagles and Ravens defense and it figures to repeat on Monday Night.
...the key will be that the Steelers defense, while hurting without nose tackle Casey Hampton, is nothing to sneeze at and certainly much better than either Cleveland's or Cincinnati's.
...therefore, how Ravens rookie QB Joe Flacco handles the pressure of the Steelers plus the enemy environment will play as big a role as any in the game.
...the two things I see as turning the game in the Ravens favor is our pass rush and running game.
...if those two thing are successful, the Ravens will win.
...at the same time, if we lose the turnover battle, we'll probably lose the game.
...the Ravens would have a very difficult time coming from behind if they have to go to the passing game to play catch up.
...I will still be watching a lot of football on Sunday, to see how the other teams and my fantasy players do.
...the early game on TV in Baltimore is the Battle of Ohio (yippee?), as the winless Browns and Bengals will slug it out to see who remains in the AFC North basement.
...I see the home team (Cincy) winning a sloppy, high scoring affair.
...I think we may have a Brady Quinn sighting in this game.
...the best late game on Sunday afternoon will be the Redskins visiting the Cowboys, although I think the 'boys offense will outscore the 'skins.
...I'm also interested in seeing how the Tennessee Titans handle the Minnesota Vikings running game (AP), as they come into Baltimore the following week.
...wouldn't it be a great week and gameday if they come in 4-0 to play us at 3-0!?
...the Titans are a similar team to the Ravens as they rely on a bruising running game and great defense, while passing when they have to.
...Arizona at the NY Jets and Green Bay at Tampa Bay are two other good games to see, although unless you have Direct TV's NFL Sunday Ticket, you won't see it on Comcast.
...I think the Bye week couldn't come at a better time for the New England Patriots.
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My keys to victory.
We need to attack the Steeler’s offensive line. This will slow the run and obliterate the pass.
We need to run the ball effectively to avoid passing situations.
We cannot get into 3rd-and-long situations.
Also, we cannot get behind.
Obviously, we agree on all of our points. I think that, of these, the most important thing will be to not get behind. I’m sure that there will be games where Flacco will lead us to come-back victories. I don’t see that happening in Pittsburgh on Monday night.
I am also looking forward to the Tennessee game. That game will be the brutal.
by BAL_Hawk on
Sep 26, 2008 11:00 AM EDT
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Ed Reed
Make sure he collects his manhood next Monday,….he left it at Heinz field the last time the Ravens visited. Tell him to call the operator and ask for Hines Ward,…been holdin’ it for a year.
by ismail on
Sep 26, 2008 4:04 PM EDT
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Here's a video of Ed Reed's "manhood!"
Check out last week’s classic Ed Reed interception here. If this is the manhood you’re speaking of, um,..it looks like he still has it!
Rexx
by Rexx on
Sep 27, 2008 9:48 AM EDT
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One thing
I still say, just like the Cincy game, it comes down to one thing. If we get a good pass rush on Big Ben, we win. We will be able to score some points on them, but if we can harrass him into turnovers, we will put enough points on the board to win. We know they can’t run on us, so if they have truble passing, it’s over. Their defense is okay, but nowhere near the Ravens level.
Rexx
by Rexx on
Sep 26, 2008 12:33 PM EDT
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I don’t see how you can say “nowhere near the ravens level”.
Our only mutual opponent was the browns, which you played at home and we played away. The ravens gave up 70 more yards and 4 more points to them. You can choose to discount that discrepancy because of the wind. The cowboys held the browns to 205 yards and 10 points. So the ravens fared the worst against the browns defensively. If you want to extrapolate, which is extremely erroneous but I’ll do the exercise anyhow…the cowboys D is better than the ravens. The cowboys D was not effective against the eagles. The steelers D was effective against the eagles. The steelers D is therefore better than the cowboys D, therefore the steelers D is better than the ravens D.
Your other opponent was cincy, which you decimated. You held them to 154 yards and 10 points.
The ravens have had solid defensive outings against two teams that have shown little offensively except the bengals third game. The steelers have had solid defensive outings against the browns (ranked 32nd offensively), the texans (ranked 25th offensively), and the eagles (ranked 6th).
I’m not going to toot the steelers defense and say it’s way better than the ravens. I don’t believe that, maybe I’d say they’re about even. But saying the steelers defense is nowhere near the ravens level is a bit laughable to me. I’d let you use last years statistics to help back up your point, but those would just further back up my point, not yours.
Maybe I’m missing something.
by steelguy99 on
Sep 26, 2008 12:57 PM EDT
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It's a little early to tell, but let's get a couple things noted
The Browns touchdown came off of a 52 yard drive, where the field position came from a Joe Flacco interception.
The Bengals touchdown came off of a fumble returned for a touchdown by the Bengals defense, so our defense held the Bengals to 3 points.
Oh, and yardage stats are stupid – Take a look
Football Outsiders has our Defensive VOA at -64.3, and the Steelers at -24.2. Since negative numbers are good for this stat, the Ravens are far and away better right now. Make no mistake, I realize it’s wau early to tell, and that the Steelers had to play against a better offense (PHL) than we had to play against. However, I wonder how the Steelers defense would have performed if Westbrook and McNabb hadn’t gotten injured.
I think the Ravens defensive line with Gregg out is better than the Steelers defensive line without Hampton and Keisel. I think our Linebacker corps is better than the Steelers linebacker corps (although they are both so good it might be a wash). The Steelers may have a better secondary than we do, but not if Troy Polamalu doesn’t play, and he’s been MIA from practice. That would lead me to believe that the Ravens have a better defense than the Steelers do, although I also believe the Steelers have a better offense. In any case, this is quite looking to be a defensive domination game. Should be lots of fun.
by math_geek on
Sep 26, 2008 4:08 PM EDT
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I don’t want to argue stats all day and get into how every stat is subject to error. I don’t that think that defensive or offensiva voa’s are immune to error. If you take the offensive voa of the bengals and browns they still come up at 28th and 31st, as opposed to the steelers vs. 30th, 31st, and 7th. To me this suggests that even though defensive voa’s account for the quality of the opposition they aren’t doing it enough.
Even if I’m wrong about that, I can’t see that they take it into account enough that you can say that the steelers D is nowhere near the defense of the ravens. Nowhere near implies that they are hardly even in the same league defensively. Stop trying to defend an indefensible position.
by steelguy99 on
Sep 26, 2008 4:49 PM EDT
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I didn't actually say the Steelers D was no-where near the Ravens D
Rexx said that. I was just pointing out that the a) yardage stats you brought on were dumb, b) that some better stats (VOA), showed the Ravens doing better, and c) that it was in fact too early to tell which defense was better.
Note, VOA doesn’t become “Opponent adjusted” until midway through the season, so that there are enough data points for the adjustment results to be well defined. VOA is still better than yardage, in my opinion, because yardage is so inconsistent (who cares how much yardage a team picks up in garbage time verses an opponent’s second string defense for example).
Then I pointed out that I “believed” the Ravens defense was better because I liked our D-Line and Linebackers more. This is completely valid, as I or Rexx can say what we want within certain “not being a jerk” constraints. It is, after all, a Ravens blog.
I’d love to talk the details with you, but you’re not interested in that. But I figure I can get away with saying whatever I want as long as I’m willing to defend it and no-one feels like seriously arguing with me.
by math_geek on
Sep 26, 2008 5:06 PM EDT
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I know you’re defending Rexx’s point, which is my only real bone of contention. You can say you like your D-line and linebackers more, and there’s nothing for me to argue, that’s your opinion.
I’m interested in details, just not dissecting definitions of statistics and I don’t really want to read the formulas they use to come to ratings. I didn’t know VOA didn’t adjust until midway through, so I’ll keep that in mind, and maybe Rexx should to when he is talking out of his ass. :)
I’d have to disagree with your point b) though, I don’t see how VOA shows the ravens doing better than straight up yardage stats. In both they are well ahead of the rest of the league on defense, and in both the offense of the teams played suck. Therefore I’d have to also disagree with a) that my yardage stats are dumb, since they tell pretty much the same story as the VOA’s at this point, don’t they?
Just to give everyone the heads up, the ravens have the highest total VOA, about twice the total VOA of the cowboys. Ah…statistics.
Seriously though, this is going to be a good game.
by steelguy99 on
Sep 26, 2008 5:18 PM EDT
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I say it’s gonna be a good game too, but let’s bear in mind that Pittsburgh has’nt lost a Monday night game in years. It’ll be a challenge but we can do it!
by MD Dawg Fan on
Sep 27, 2008 6:33 PM EDT
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Exactly!
Big Ben has been a thorn in our side for too long, and I believe this is the year to give him reason for crying—sacks and more sacks! Besides, with the upgrades in our defensive line before the season began, this game should be a breeze.
by MD Dawg Fan on
Sep 27, 2008 6:37 PM EDT
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The only defensive stat that matters...
…as I’ve said over and over, is points allowed. Nothing else is a better indicator of a team’s status. The Steelers have a good defense and while I believe the Ravens is better, perhaps it is too soon for me to boast they are that much better than the Steelers. Time will tell and we’ll start seeing any difference come Monday.
Rexx
by Rexx on
Sep 26, 2008 5:57 PM EDT
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I mean, sure points allowed matter more
but would you really say thats the best stat to measure the defense? Does that mean that Ray Rice’s fumble returned for a touchdown was a bad defensive play. Or that our great field position was a sign of the Browns poor
defense?
It’s a little more complicated to separate Offense, Defense, and Special Teams.
by math_geek on
Sep 26, 2008 10:27 PM EDT
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Absolutely "Yes"
Look at the great defenses of the past. What do they all have in common, other than winning Super BOwls? They all were at the top or close to it in points allowed. The opposite certainly doesn’t hold true, in that the team that scores the most points does not usually end up winning it all (other than the ’99 Rams). The Pats came close last year, but the Giants defense came through at the end. Other defensive stats are always arguable, but never points allowed.
Rexx
by Rexx on
Sep 27, 2008 9:21 AM EDT
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I really think we could win
I too, thought the Steelers would blow us out before the season. But things are looking good. Roethlisberger is injuried so he shouldn’t be a factor. With the Ravens strong run defense, Pittsburgh probably won’t have much of an offense. As long a Flacco continues to not make mistakes we should be fine. Really the game lays in the young QB’s hands. I’m very interested in seeing how he does against a legitimate defense. So far he’s looked calm and confident.
by edsachs1 on
Sep 26, 2008 6:57 PM EDT
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It's pretty clear...
…that everyone wants to see Flacco handle the pressure of a good defense and in enemy territory. Let’s see how he handles the noise that he didn’t here while winning twice at home. A win on the road in Pittsburgh with minmal mistakes will go a long way in determining Flacco’s success as a last minute choice to lead this team and our team’s season will be a lot clearer as whether we are a contender or pretender.
Rexx
by Rexx on
Sep 27, 2008 9:23 AM EDT
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It will hurt us
If Willis can’t play. I’m confident in McLain’s abilities but we would need Rice to get serious carries if Willis can’t go. Don’t get me wrong I am a huge Ray Rice fan, and I think he is the future at RB for the Ravens, but he has shown fumble concerns, just like Delicious (are you f-ing kidding me. No grown man, especially a football player should have that nickname unless they frequent bathhouses). This would negate some of the Ravens rushing advantage if we don’t have our Pro Bowl RB. I think we have a good shot even without McGahee but I think our chances increase dramatically if he can play and contribute. One thing I do know is the Browns better be ready when these two teams meet again. The Ravens D has Willis’s back and you know they will go out of their way to punish the Browns (You listening Andra?) next time we meet. This Monday will surely be a battle and I can’t wait.
by DT711 on
Sep 27, 2008 1:02 PM EDT
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Delicious?
A man nicknamed Delicious is totally disgusting! Well, Ray Ray will have no problems taking the taste outta his moth. One good shot should do it!
My only concern about this game is how well Flacco will perform. He’s been doing pretty good so far but it’s early in the season and I can only hope he can avoid being blitzed ’cause Pittsburgh has been well known for that kind of defense for a long time. As for Ed Reed, I say this—grow a pair real quick by Monday ’cause we wanna go all the way to the Big Dance in February!!!!
by MD Dawg Fan on
Sep 27, 2008 6:31 PM EDT
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Ed Reed Grow a Pair?
First off welcome to the Blog, but really, why go there? Ed Reed is a beast and he had a monster pair last week when baiting D.A. into a pick for a T.D. He plays center field at safety, and manipulates QB’s endlessly. He keeps Defensive Coordinates up at night. Tackling is a bonus for him, and he does it quite well most of the time. He has had his fair share of monster hits throughout his career, thats why he’s nicknamed Ed “The Midnight Train” Reed. I expect that from Steelers fans but dude you’re a Ravens fan, you should know better.
by DT711 on
Sep 28, 2008 12:33 AM EDT
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