The Difference Between the Two Offenses
by Rexx on Dec 10, 2008 9:32 AM EST
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PrintI put a synopsis of this post in a comment responding to the comparisons of the two offenses. For years the Ravens have been offensively challenged, leading to them even being the subject of bad jokes:
How do you keep the Baltimore Ravens off your front yard? Erect a set of goalposts!
A guy walks into a bar with a cat. He asks the bartender if they can watch the game together, as their TV is broken and the cat likes to watch the Ravens. The Ravens kick a FG early in the game and the cat jumps up and holds its front paws in the air, signaling the FG good. Everyone in the bar is amazed and the bartender asks the man, "what does he do for a touchdown?" The man replies, "I don't know, I've only had him for three years!"
There are a ton of more ones, each as bad as the ones above (although I like the cat one!).
Anyway, as I've said before, this is not your father's Ravens' offense (?). This team can score, is the 10th highest scoring team in the NFL and is averaging over 24 points per game. In fact, over the past eight games, I've heard that the Ravens are the highest scoring team in the entire NFL over that span! This offense has added two things that have plagued this team over the years, both of which are the reason for our offensive success. I'm not talking about individuals, players or coaches. I'm talking about what we are able to do on the field, regardless of the people planning or executing it. For the first time in recent Ravens memory (no slight to the Vinny Testeverde offensive-minded teams of the early years), we have the two big things that lead to offensive success and points on the scoreboard. That is the ability to have long, time consuming, ball control drives that eat up clock, wear down defenses, keep the opposition offense off the field and end up with points on the board. The other thing is that we also now have the big play ability to break open a close game or put the proverbial nail in the coffin of a beatdown or blowout. This can be accomplished though the perfect execution of a routine play or through the same of a trick play. The Ravens have regularly accomplished both of these offensive options on a regular basis this season. The scary thing that this presents to opposing defenses is that we've done it regularly and with great success. Many teams try it and don't succeed, which in itself, puts the defense on alert. However, to do it successfully with regularity presents a totally different mindset for defensive gameplanning by our opponents.
This is the difference betwen us and the Steelers offense. Pittsburgh always seems to make the little plays to extend the drives that end up with points when you thought they would bog down, get sacked or not make the play. Ben Roethlisberger always escapes the expected sack by shrugging of the defensive player better than anyone else in the league, and then takes a few steps to hit Hines Ward for the short gain and the key first down to keep the Steelers in the game. That is why with their three losses, they still have not been blown out in any game while the Ravens have been blasted twice. However, don't read much into this, as the Steelers have lost to the same two teams that blew us out, but both times they lost at Heinz Field, while we were crushed as visitors. Coincidence? I think not.
The Steelers do not seem to be able to make the big play. That is a bold statement, but they are much more of a ball control dink and dunk pass team than one looking for the long pass or trick play. Their offensive line has not been able to give Roethlisberger the time to make a big pass or trick play, so they rely on ramming the ball down your throat or frustrating the hell out of you and wearing you down with their extended drives.
Wthout the threat of the big or trick play, they have more opportunities to fail and face a tougher time to score. However, they are a good team and have found the ways to do both, as their record is not anything other than excellent. In a tough defensive game coming up like this one as well as their next one at Tennessee, that might make it a bit more difficult to put points on the board than a team like the Ravens, who can now score from anywhere on the field at any time.
Must be nice to be us, huh?
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According to most people still....
We have a garbage offense. Everyone is not giving us our credit because of the teams we have beaten. That is their only excuse for our record and frankly, its a bad one. Any team in the NFL can beat another team and the ones dissing the Ravens cause of their schedule know that to. Not one of our wins this year were we in a serious threat of losing in the 4th quarter. Sure, we won the first game of the season 17-10, but we all knew they werent coming back. Steelers had an 11-10 victory, 20-13 (Last minute int), 26-21, and barely squeeked by us at 23-20 in OT at your house. You let a rookie QB outplay Big Ben on paper, and we all knew which ever team made “the play” was going to win that game. Harrison sacks Joe, Joe fumbles, Woodley scores. If that happened for the Ravens, game over for you guys, and you all know that.
This offense deserves to get more credit than it has been given. A rookie QB, rookie RB, RB that got 13 carries last year, rookie head coach, youngest Off. Line in the NFL at 24 years old AVG, and an Offensive Coor, who lead a team to 1-15 last year.
If you cant give us credit now for what we have done, wait for 2-3 years from now when we may be a top 3 scoring offense in the league.
You have to hate losing more than you love winning
Outplaying
If your fumbled let to the game being decided then how did you outplayed someone? Even on paper. If a running back has 175yrds and 2 tds but fumbles 4 times that leads to 3 scores and his team loses did he out play the other running back who ran for 80 yards and 1 td with no fumbles? Not in my opinion. Ben didn’t play great but he played well enough not to lose the game, while your QB didn’t. Flacco is a good QB, I watched him play while he was at Delaware. I don’t want to take anything from him. But you have to hold on to the ball. Throw it away or something right?
Your offense is good, consistent and reliable. Happy? I guess people see how much your defense scores and say well thats why they get a lot of points. I don’t point to schedule because of course every team can beat each other except if you are the Lions.
by tannofsteel84 on Dec 10, 2008 11:54 AM EST up reply actions
To answer your question, “outplaying” is a difficult concept without winning, but there is a school of football observers who believe that certain plays are influenced by luck as much as skill. Consider this, if that fumble that was returned for a touchdown had bounced out of bounds instead of towards the Ravens endzone, and that led to a punt, and another punt, and the Ravens won that game, would either team have really played any differently? Did Flacco, Harrison, or Woodley have any control over where the ball bounced? Luck is a factor in any ball game, and if you don’t get the breaks, than you don’t win. Luck is part of the game, it makes the game more exciting and I’m not complaining about that, but that is why Football Outsiders when they develop their high-tech DVOA statistic, assign equal value to all fumbles, lost or otherwise, because they find that who recovers a fumble in a certain situation is stochastic, because it has to do with how the ball bounces. Football Outsiders actually had the Ravens as leading the Steelers in DVOA in that game because the Ravens were moving the ball better. They call these “tough luck losses” at Football Outsiders, where their metric shows one team as having played better but the other team wins.
Another example is against the Redskins where Jim Leonard and Ray Lewis sacked Jason Cambell and CLEARLY forced a fumble, but he was ruled down so that the Ravens coudln’t take possession. There’s no doubt in my mind that if the whistle hadn’t blown, it would have been returned for a TD (Ray, Jason, and Jim were ten yards down from every Redskin). Oh well, shit happens.
The fumble was a huge mistake, and I’m not saying I absolutely advocate this point of view, although I LOVE footballoutsiders being the math geek that I am. And you are absolutely right that Flacco needs to learn to hold onto the ball. But was that turnover (while more costly) really WORSE than when Ben lofted one up to Haloti Ngata? Maybe. It was, in any case, an extremely close game.
I have a hard time buying fumble recovery as a random statistic. Where the ball is fumbled has a lot to do with whether it is recoverable or not and by whom. If a fumble is forced out by say, james harrison, the defense has a good chance of recovering the football because the defense is facing the ball and has a better idea of where the ball is than the offensive line.
Luck clearly still plays a part in all of this, but while assigning 50% to a fumble over the entirety of the NFL may represent the average chances, with certain teams/players assigning 50% to a fumble recovery is very inaccurate.
In this specific instance instance the ball would have had to defy physics to hit the sidelines. Given the offense vs. defense and their relative positions in the backfield, I think that the defense had over n 80% chance of recovering the fumble.
So, I did a bad job of describing the footballoutsiders system on fumbles. Football Outsiders actually assigns a different value to a forced fumble based on where and what conditions the fumble occurred. Obviously a FF well behind the line of scrimmage has a much higher probability of being recovered by the defense than a FF at the line by a running back or a botched snap does.
Luck still plays a role, but like you said, it’s not always 50/50.
So, as for the specific case, as I remember the play, Flacco had rolled out to the sideline was looking down field but his body was facing the sideline and the ball was in his hands not in throwing position. Harrison hit Flacco directly from behind, but the ball popped out and bounced backwards about two or three yards (it happens). Easiest TD in the world for Woodley. I don’t think the ball would have to defy the laws of physics to get to the sidelines, it would have just had to take a different bounce, as it was close enough to the sidelines as it were. I also don’t think the play was an actual strip by Harrison, but more of a loss by Flacco due to a great hit (Harrison would have had to get his hands around Flacco’s body to get a strip and I don’t think he did). Maybe I remember the play incorrectly, that is certainly possible.
I don’t know much about the physics of football bouncing, but they have quite a weird shape and I’ve observed all sorts of entertaining bounces from punts that don’t get caught. I’m guessing the punter never really wants the ball to bounce back towards him on a long punt, but it clearly happens. I’m guessing Flacco and Harrison had no control over how the ball bounced, so what’s to say it couldn’t have bounced nearer to the sideline?
Anything can happen, it could have bounced out of the stadium but it is pretty unlikely. The force exerted on the ball on any particular play would have a large impact on the random nature of the ball. With a ball just dropping from a quarterback, even with the slight force from it being propelled backwards, I don’t see how it would bounce to the sideline 99.x% of the time. For the record, the fumble happened at the right hatchmark as flacco was cutting back into the pocket.
Does FO consider a fumble recovered behind the LOS as more important to DVOA? Or would a recovery in the flats be more important?
Like I said before, FO scores forced fumbles based on where the fumble occurred, not who recovered the fumble, based on how likely a fumble is to be recovered in that particular situation.
http://footballoutsiders.com/info/methods
As I remember it, there was nothing “slight” about the hit Harrison put on Flacco, and Flacco was nowhere near the pocket, he had rolled out to the right and was near the sideline. Clearly one of us misremembers the play. Obv if Flacco was in the pocket there was no chance the ball would bounce out of the sideline. I think he was less then two yards out of the sideline when the fumble occurred.
It’s likely that one of us misremembered the play, and I imagine it’s not the person who just looked it up and rewatched it on nfl.com.
I clearly stand corrected
I couldn’t find a youtube. I should have gone with NFL.com in the first place.
So, yeah, most of the time that’s going to be recovered by the defense. A different bounce might have made it not a touchdown, but that’s about it.
I clearly have too many nightmares about the Joe Flacco rolling to his right experience (see the Titans game).
Anyway, my general point about luck having an impact in a game implying that one team can in fact outplay the other still stands, and like I said before, I’m not taking the stance that this is what happened here.
Point taken. Arguing that luck plays no part in any football games would be a hard position to support.
I agree
I do agree that luck has to do with sport. My friend doesn’t but that’s whole can of worms there. But I do believe this, that your skill and preparation allows you to create your own luck. If they weren’t good enough to get to the QB then there is not chance for the force fumble and luck to take place. So yes while luck has to do with the ball bouncing the right way, you have to give credit where credit is due for making your own luck.
by tannofsteel84 on Dec 11, 2008 9:52 AM EST up reply actions
As to the “force”, even if there was a large amount of horizontal force, which there was, that doesn’t translate into vertical force which is the route the ball took. There was very little horizontal movement to the ball, it fell from flacco’s hands as you described and was thus little more than a drop.
Throw it away or something right?
He’s gotten a ton better at throwing the ball away if nothing’s there than he was in week 4.
Kevbo: [to George Sherrill] George, you look a lot like Vin Diesel...
Flatbill: Let's get somethin' straight... Vin Diesel looks like me.
-From "The Making of Orioles Magic"
Beating up on weak teams
Is there anything credible to say about a team that destroys the so-called lesser competition as compared to the team that just beats them by a TD or less. In that case, the Ravens have done what they were supposed to do, which is beat up on the bad teams. We’ve played a couple of good teams real tough and lost and a couple of others have blown us out. However, no one’s had any real success against us at home and this Sunday won’t be any different.
Rexx
What annoys me
concerning the “garbage wins” being labeled on the Ravens…you could put that one anyone. The Colts have basically faced the same or similar level of competition to us. Now they have one some big games with close victories over Pitt and a Tom Bradyless NE, and the blowout against us. But other than that, the rest of their schedule hasn’t been exactly daunting. And they have lost to the likes of Jacksonville and Greenbay. Twice now, the Texans came short, along with the Browns, San Freaking Diego. Now I am not going to sit here and say that Indy isn’t a threat…I would rather face the Steelers in the playoffs then them, but one could look at the schedules, make all these suppositions as to what win means what, and who is a quality opponent, and say something stupid like “Well shit most of their wins are garbage and they don’t dominate the teams they should”.
"When they get drafted by the Baltimore Ravens, we expect them to play like that. Are we surprised? No."
by UMBC Oriole fan on Dec 11, 2008 10:17 AM EST up reply actions
yeah
thats what solidifies the colts as a good team, i mean i don’t think they are all that considering we should have beaten them handily if the BB of now was then but its in the past and nothing we can do about it but say hey they did what they had to do and won the game.
I do consider the Ravens as a great team but the fact that they do not beat tougher opponents only make our job easier. This shows that if the game is tough and close, they are not as likely to win the games. If you don’t want it called garbage wins then at least i won’t, but you have yet to win a close game and that might come back to haunt Flacco if he is put into that position where he is behind.
by Bleed-Black&Gold on Dec 11, 2008 6:34 PM EST up reply actions
Just to prove why they play the games
The Eagles were a mess against the Ravens and the Bengals yet when Westbrook is healthy, they beat the Giants. I would make the argument that Westbrook is an MVP just seeing how inept that team is without him…Could Flacco win a big come from behind game…that’s the $20,000 question. Our close loses against the Titans and against you guys came when Flacco was still treated with kid gloves and learning the system. He has really progressed since them. I don’t think that anyone could make the argument that Flacco hasn’t improved but until he has a win against a top team like the Steelers, its a moot argument. I do believe however, that the come from behind game against the Browns was huge for not only Flacco but also the Ravens. Under Billick we would have completely folded. And as a Ravens fan I got to admit most of our wins come from the Defense dominating early when in that game, they gave up two late scores back to back. I never imagined that a Raven rookie quarterback could come back from a two touchdown deficit anywhere against anyone.
What annoys me about Indy, besides the history, is that I firmly believe they somehow design their team just to face the Steelers/Ravens style team. The Ravens have never played well against them and it kills me. Not their offense…they are always good but for some reason their defense always seem to play 10 times better against us.
"When they get drafted by the Baltimore Ravens, we expect them to play like that. Are we surprised? No."
by UMBC Oriole fan on Dec 11, 2008 10:12 PM EST up reply actions
I Agree....
Mr. Malor, you stole the words from my mouth. It seems as if ESPN and all of the analysts are all soaked up with the Giants offense and the Titans record. IMO I think the Steelers and Ravens are the best teams in the AFC. My Steelers don’t quite get the credit they deserve either, it seems as if ESPN and SportsCenter does like a 30 second coverage on them and goes back to cover the Giants and Titans. Our Offense is bad yeah, but it is slowly improving considering the first few games of the season where Ben was getting 7-8 sacks a game. I’m pretty confident that we were able to outlast the Cowboys and their intimidating pss rush led by Demarcus Ware.
As for the your Ravens, I give you guys the respect that is due because the Ravens scare me the most, more than the Titans and the Colts. Flacco is a “triggerhappy” QB that anticipates the big play. Your WR’s will give our secondary a tough time, I expect Troy Polomalu to sit back and help our CB’s instead of helping the blitz because I know Flacco will go long. I’m hoping for Harrison and Woodley to put pressure on Flacco so he makes some wrong decisions but by the way I have been studying your games, Flacco looks pretty comfortable.
On the defensive side, this will be a test of endurance between the best two defenses in the league. I’m praying for Ben to not let loose on a stupid play and give Ed Reed a costly INT just like Ben did in the Colts game (we should’ve won).
Me personally, I have to give your team credit Mr Malor, the Ravens are a stacked team destined for a playoff run. I just hope my Steelers win so we can have the BYE week. Well, good luck on Sun. I know it will be close!!!
I feel your pain.
Even though I do not mind flying under the radar, it would be nice sometimes to have people see exactly what we are all about. The one reason I can think of for this is because the NFL sells tickets because of offensive touchdowns. They cannot stand the fact that our teams win our games 17-6, 13-3, 20-12. Scores like those dont usually produce a fun offense to watch. We us pitt and bmore fans can appreciate the fact that our defenses are the strongest in the NFL.
If you have a defense that is on the level as these two teams who can shut down an offense on any given sunday, the points from the offense will eventually come. Look at the Ravens, #2 ranked defense and #1 in many defensive stats. This great performance by our defense has led to the 10th highest scoring team in the NFL, the Ravens.
If you do not give up points and are constantly creating 3 and outs, your offense will be on the field longer, get more chances, and if you are holding the ball for 7-9 minutes less than your opponent, do not expect to win the game.
All I want is for people to understand why we play football the way we do. All people want to see is the Bradys, Mannings, LTs, Brees. They do not like seeing a defensive battle because it usually wont end in a 38-35 final, which everyone enjoys.
MARK MY WORD ON THIS, I WOULD RATHER SEE THE RAVENS WIN A GAME 9-6 THAN WIN A GAME 45-42. THE AGONY THAT I WOULD FACE FROM SEEING AN OFFENSE SCORE 42 ON MY DEFENSE WOULD BE TERRIBLE.
You have to hate losing more than you love winning
The offense is BETTER
ANd I’ll give them credit for being A LOT better than last year. But don’t ever ask this offense to take part in an all-out, “last team to hold the ball wins” shoot out game.
Our offense’s job is to run down the clock and keep our defense off the field. Also, the offense should assume at least 2 GREAT field position situations given to them by the defense, and the offenses’ job is to only fuck up ONE OF THEM.
I love how good we look when we don’t even have too hard of a job to do. And I give a lot of credit to Cameron and Harbaugh for coming in and improving this so quickly.
But I haven’t seen our defense collapse and our offense win the game yet. (Picture the Giants or the Colts game, but with Flacco matching the Mannings TD for TD….).
The stock market will never recover, our armies will never again be #1, and our children will drink filthy water for the rest of their lives - HST
I have to say that coming from 14 points down at Cleveland
was mostly the offense after the defense gave up two TD’s. Again, it WAS the Browns, but still.
Kevbo: [to George Sherrill] George, you look a lot like Vin Diesel...
Flatbill: Let's get somethin' straight... Vin Diesel looks like me.
-From "The Making of Orioles Magic"
browns and D
yeah remember that your offense didn’t do all of the work either, that defense of yours sealed the game with the INT returned for TD. just saying. oh and that was a ten point win and it did not come down to the final 5 minutes to decide (by the offense).
by Bleed-Black&Gold on Dec 11, 2008 6:36 PM EST up reply actions
Fortunately or unfotunately,
depending on how you look at it, in our wins, we really never had to win them in the last minutes, as they all were by at least seven points (only once) and the rest by at least 10. See, we may have problems winning close games because all we seem to do is win by large margins. Not too sure if that is bad, though.
Rexx
I agree, for now....
But don’t ever ask this offense to take part in an all-out, "last team to hold the ball wins" shoot out game.
Our O will develop in the next few years into a unit that is able to score with anyone. Nearly all of our offensive contributors, save for Mason, should be around for years. Give the already solid O-line more time to develop and our young skill players time to mature (McClain, Rice, Flacco, Clayton and high round draft pick WR to be named later) and we should have a dynamic offense that can win shootouts for years to come. If Ozzie can keep the D in the general vicinity of where they’ve been the past 8 years, it should be fun.
I have a feeling (pretty obvious IMO) that the Ravens and Steelers will continue battle for the AFC North crown for the foreseeable future. Its a two team division, and thank god the Ravens and Steelers are such solid franchises or the AFC North would be akin to the craptastic NFC West, with the Bungles and Brown Stains in perpetual sucktitude.
Is it Sunday yet?
Have you watched the Steelers play this year?
No offense Rexx but the steelers have not even attempted a “trick play” this year. I don’t think they’ve tried one under Tomlin at all. Also, they’ve made huge plays this year through the air… It’s something that they are always trying do (which is a downfall).
Oh and we’ll see about the “score from anywhere on the field at any time.” thing. =)
Rexx you should watch Steelers games
before you say they cannot get the big play. The problem going into the Giants game was not relying on the big play and we get big plays ALOT. Holmes and Washington are our home run hitters and you would think the Ravens would realize this as Holmes got a big pass reeled in against you guys the first matchup which basically gave us enough confidence to win the game and brought us back into the game.
There was a time period when we didn’t have the big play but thats only because of BB’s shoulder and he could not throw down field, remember BL came in the redskins to bomb one to Washington or Holmes and then in the Cowboys that game saving pass to Holmes on 3rd and 16 in our own territory really set the stage for a comeback.
by Bleed-Black&Gold on Dec 11, 2008 6:40 PM EST reply actions
Yes, that Holmes TD against us
was a big play but the one against Dallas might have been a big one, but it was not the LONG ones I’m referring to.
Rexx
so a 50 yd pass is not long?? that is half the field i believe.
by Bleed-Black&Gold on Dec 11, 2008 7:35 PM EST up reply actions
you know also you did say big plays not long plays in the post. Also we are 10-3 and according to you we didn’t need any big plays to get us there.
by Bleed-Black&Gold on Dec 11, 2008 7:36 PM EST up reply actions
Good point
Yes, you have done what it takes to win, and that is the mark of a good team. In fact, I’ll evewn go as far as to say that until we beat you, you are the better team. You have won the close games, and while we have not. Until we do, there will always be that doubt on our team’s true ability. Everyone knows how good the Steelers are, this weekend we get to prove how good we are.
Rexx
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