Week 6: NFL Picks & Pans

Tough time for me picking the games last weekend, as I finished 5-9 (ouch). I went for a couple of upsets that didn't happen, but still have a solid record for the season. There are a slew of possible upsets just itching to be picked and you'll see a couple listed below. I'll pick & pan my Ravens at Colts game in tomorrow's post, but unfortunately, you won't see an upset pick from me on that one. Oh well, here goes for the other Sunday and MNF games:

Atlanta over Chicago:  Here's my first upset pick. SportsBook.com has the Bears as a 3 point favorite on the road, but I like the Falcons defending their home turf. Michael Turner has ran great at home and I think he'll have success against an overrated defense, while John Abraham has played out of his head for Atlanta.

Minnesota over Detroit:  Gus Frerotte has made everyone in Minnesota say, "Tavares who?" and combined with AP, will smother a Lions team that might begin to improve under a new GM and QB, as Drew Stanton should take over for the embattled and injured Jon Kitna.

New Orleans over Oakland:  No way the Saints lose twice in a row at home against teams they should have beaten. Drew Brees is supposed to get Marques Colston back at wideout, and Reggie had a career and recordsetting game last week and is aiming for more.

NY Jets over Cincinnati:  The Jets have had a week off to prepare for one of the worst teams and biggest disappointments in the league this year. While it appears the Bengals are beginning to click on offense through the air, the Jets' passing game was lights out last time they played and look to feast on the horrible Cincy secondary at home.

Tampa Bay over Carolina:  The Panthers are on a roll and one of the better teams in the NFC. However, I like the Bucs to defend their home turf and slow down Carolina's offense in a close one that could go either way.

Washington over St. Louis:  Against my better wishes, the Redskins have emerged as one of the top teams in the NFC and a contender for the NFC East crown, with road victories against all their division opponents. Now they're hosting a team in complete disarray. The only question is can they get psyched enough to beat a team that is not supposed to beat them?

Houston over Miami:  While the Dolphins have won two in a row for the first time since at least the 2006 season (duh, they only won once in 2007, and yes, it was against my Ravens, thank you very much for reminding me!), the Texans took a play out of the Ravens gameplan and snatched defeat from the jaws of victory last week by giving up 21 points and the game to the Colts in the last four minutes. However, I still like the Texans offense and Mario Williams to disrupt the 'fins from the defensive side of the ball.

Denver over Jacksonville:  The Broncos defense finally played decent last week after looking horrible the first part of the season. I expect them to repeat that performance to allow their passing attack to put enough points on the board to stay ahead of the Jags stellar running game.

Arizona over Dallas:  This is obviously the upset special pick of the week. However, I do not advocate betting the mortgage on it (sick joke in these times, eh?). The Cardinals have played great at home, as evidenced by their two huge double digit victories there over Miami and a previously undefeated Bills team. Kurt Warner has been insane at home versus average at best on the road. The Cowboys secondary is very suspect and the Cards will look to exploit it, even without top WR Anquan Boldin. The Cowboys and especially QB Tony Romo has been prone to mistakes and the Cardinals defense is underrated and hard hitting, as evidenced by their being repeatedly hit with fines from the league for head hunting. Watch out TO!

Philadelphia over San Francisco:  I was tempted to add this game to the upset list, but can't seem to get my fingers to go along with it. Even without Brian Westbrook, the Eagles should have too much firepower and anger over losing to the Redskins at home last week to allow the 49ers to defend their home field advantage.

Seattle over Green Bay:  This game is not actually an upset pick, as it is still off the betting boards as of this posting. Due to Seattle's QB Matt Hasselbeck's uncertainty, as well as Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers lingering injury, the line is still undecided. However, the Seahawks has been pretty dismal wherever they've played, so a change in QB to the elusive Seneca Wallace might not be a bad idea. Rodgers will play for the Packers, but they have not looked good the past couple of weeks, especially losing at home to the Falcons last weekend.

San Diego over New England:  The Chargers are off to their typical poor start, but it has to get better soon, or their playoff chances diminish each week they lose again. The Pats have began to get comfortable under Matt Cassel, but this will be a tough rematch of last year's AFC Championship game and Phil River and LT have something to prove. If the Pats gave up 21 to the 49ers last week and reportedly stayed on the West Coast all week to practice, then the Chargers should light up their secondary (I'd love that, as Rivers is my fantasy QB!).

NY Giants over Cleveland (Monday Night Football):  I can't wait to see the Giants put a beat down on the Browns in front of their Dawg Pound and national TV audience, which should pretty much seal the deal for both a Brady Quinn appearance and the notion that 2007 was a fluke of a season for them. The Giants are the best team in football and Eli is also the best Manning so far in 2008. Despite the losses the Giants suffered on the d-line, they have risen like the Champs they are and not only never missed a beat, but actually look better and more dominant on both sides of the ball.

Last Week:  5-9

Season Record:  44-29

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