I heard an incredible stat on Sirius Satellite Radio's NFL Network the other day. When a team is in the Red Zone, the highest TD percentage is the Arizona Cardinal's 68%. At the other end of the field, when a team starts with the ball at or insider their OWN 20 yard yard, the average TD percentage (that the drive will end with a TD) is around 13%. The defending Super Bowl Champion Indianapolis Colts percentage is just under 17%. The leader? Duh! The New England Patriots TD percentage when STARTING the drive at or inside their own 20 yard line is almost 80%!!! Yes, that's not a typo. The Patriots have a higher TD percentage from their OWN 20 yard line than any other team has inside the Red Zone!!! Amazing, just amazing. What's even more incredible that that, I'm actually going out on a line picking the Colts to win this afternoon over the Pats. My feeling is that we have the defending Super Bowl champs, undefeated and at home- and they're still an underdog!? I just can't pick against them, no matter what Tom Brady and the Pats have done. It's just a completely different game when these two teams get together and I like Peyton at home, and love what Bob Sanders does to the playing level of this defense when it matters (see what Indy did to my Ravens last January in the playoffs). Either way, this will be the best game of the season, no matter if they meet in the AFC Championship Game, or whoever makes the Super Bowl. Both are undefeated, and the most dominating teams in the league, by far.
As far as the other games, I limped home last week with a terrible 6-7 and hope to improve this week. I guess I'm no Hammerin' Hank Goldberg of ESPN. Here goes:
Detroit over Denver
The Lions are sort of for real and Denver...isn't.
Tennessee over Carolina
Titans defense is underrated and Carolina still has QB issues.
San Diego over Minnesota
Looks like the Chargers are regaining their form.
Jets over Redskins
My upset pick, as Jets QB Clemens takes over- for good.
Atlanta over San Francisco
Not that anyone outside of ATL or SF care.
Buffalo over Cincinnati
Bills proved worthiness in last two wins, while Bengals don't.
New Orleans over Jacksonville
Saints and Brees heating up while Jags can't survive w/o QB.
Kansas City over Green Bay
Should be a great old fashioned game, with LJ running wild.
Tampa Bay over Arizona
Bucs had tough loss at home last week, not twice in a row.
Cleveland over Seattle
Browns tough at home, while Seahawks poor on road.
Oakland over Houston
Just not sure, just don't care.
Philadelphia over Dallas
If Eagles lose at home against Cowboys, get out the Riot Gear!
I'll review and pick the Ravens @ Steelers Monday Night Football game in tomorrow's post.
Last Week: 6-7